Ko Vashandi Vanokwanisa Kuvimba Nayo 7-8% Gore Rinodzoka

A Tarisa Nei Nei Vashandi Vepanzvimbo Dzepasi Pose Vanofanira Kuchinja Mafungiro

Ivhareji yegore yekuderedzwa kwekugadziriswa kwekugadziriswa kweS & P 500 pakati pe1928 ne 2015 inenge inenge 8.5%, asi - sezvo kuverenga kwakanaka kunowanzoverengwa - kushanda kwekare hakusi chivimbo chekushanda kwemangwana. Mune mamwe mazwi, vatengesi vanofanira kunyanya kuvimba nemwero wakareba kwenguva yakareba pavanoverenga kuti vanoda zvakadini kuchengetedza kana kuisa mari mune ramangwana. Ichokwadi, vamwe vaongorori vanodavira kuti kushanda kwemakore makumi maviri adarika kungave kwakange kusina kunaka.

Muchikamu chino, tichatarisa kuti kana vasiri vashandi vanogona kutenderera kune inowanzonzi 7% kusvika ku8% gore negore apo vachigadzirira ramangwana ravo.

Zvichida Kudzoka Kwezasi

McKinsey & Company Kurambidza Kudzorera: Nei Vashandi Vanogona Kuda Kuderedza Zvavanotarisira vanopikisa kuti masimba akashandisa kubhadhara mari yakasiyana-siyana inodzoka mumakore makumi matatu akapfuura ari kuderedza uye kunyange kuchinja. Kutengesa kwezvinhu uye mari yezvibereko yakawira zvakanyanya kubva pamisoro yavo; hupfumi hwepasi rose hwakanga hwakasimba; tsika dzakanaka dzevanhu vaiva munzvimbo; uye teknolojia yakawedzera zvakanyanya kukura muhupfumi huri mberi.

Nekukura kwekuwedzera uye chido chezvibereko chronically down, iyo report inoratidza kuti kuenzana kweUnited States kunogona kuwira pasi se4%; US hurumende yehutano yekushambadzira inogona kusvika kune zero; Equity yeEurope inogona kuenzana ne4,5% chete; uye hurumende yeEurope hurumende inobereka zvinogona kusvika kune zero - sezvavari kutora mune dzimwe nzvimbo.

Pasi pechirwere chekuwedzera-chiitiko, mushumo unoratidza kudzoka kunogona kunge kwakanyanyisa kumusoro, asi zvichiri zvakanaka-pasi pemakore makumi maviri.

Izvi zvinodzoka zvakaderera zvinogona kunge zvakakonzera zvakanyanya kune mumwe munhu uye musangano wevatengesi munyika yose. Somuenzaniso, mushumo unoratidza kuti musiyano we2% pamusana wegore negore unodzoka pane imwe nguva yakareba zvinoreva kuti munhu ane makore makumi matatu nemanomwe nhasi anofanira kushanda kwemakore manomwe kwenguva yakareba-kana kuti anenge kaviri kuchengetedza kwavo-kurarama pamwe chete mukurasikirwa .

Mapato ehurumende yepensheni inofanirawo kugadzirisa zvavanotarisira kana kuderedza mari yekubhadhara.

Zvinokonzera Kudzoka Kwepamusoro

Mushumo weMcKinsey & Company unosimbisa zvimwe zvinhu zvinokonzera njodzi zvinogona kushandura kusvika kumadhora ekuderera mumakore anotevera, asi kune vamwe vatsvakurudzi vanotenda kuti ramangwana rinogona kuva rakajeka semakambani anotengeswa achikura uye hutsva hutsva hunochinja. Kunyange zvazvo maonero aya anowanzotarisana nezvinodiwa mune ramangwana zvichienderana nekushanda kwekare, kukanganisa kwekombiyuta muma2000 kwave kusingatenderwi.

Kugadziriswa kwekombiyuta kudarika maonero avanoona mazuva ano kunogona kukurumidza kuita chibereko chakawanda chemuzinda ("GDP") kukura mune ramangwana. Semuenzaniso, kushanduka nekushandiswa kwemichina yekudzidzira uye njere dzekugadzira maitiro kunzvimbo dzakawanda dzemabhizimisi zvinogona kuita kuti vashandi vabatsire zvikuru mune zvehupfumi zvakanyanya. Maererano neAlysis Group , huchenjeri hwemagetsi hunogona kuva ne $ 5.89 trillion hune hupfumi hwehupfumi hwepasi rose mumakore gumi anotevera.

Misika zhinji inobuda uye yekumhenderekedzo inoberekawo kuwedzera kwekukura kwemazana mumakore anouya kana ivo vanoita zvemazuva ano uye vakakura. Kunyange zvazvo China yakave ichijekesa yekukura pamusoro pemakumi emakumi akapfuura, huwandu hunofadza hwevanhu muIndia nePakistan hunoita kuti hurumende iwedzere kukura uye inyanzvi kunze kwenyika yakabudirira.

Maererano neEY, misika yakabuda inogona kukonzera 50% yeGDP pasi rose uye 55% yekusungirwa kwekutsvaga kwemajeri kusvika 2020.

Kuchengetedza Portfolio yeHamangwana

Vashandi vemunyika yose vanotora maonero maviri aya maonero ekuvakwa nekuchengetedza mahofisi avo emangwana.

Chokutanga kutora ndechokuti kudzoka kwakaderera kunogona kupiwa kare kushanda, zvinoreva kuti vatengesi vanofanira kunyatsogadzirisa zvavanotarisira maererano. Izvi zvinogona kunge zvinoreva kuronga kusimudza mari yakawanda kare kutanga kuunza kudzoka kwakadaro gare gare muhupenyu kana kunonoka kubhadhara kuitira kuti zvive nemakore akawanda emusika. Kunyange zvazvo kutama kungave kunorwadza munguva pfupi, kubatsirwa kwekuwana zvakakwana zvekurega basa mumugwagwa kunokodzera kuedza.

Chechipiri kutora ndeyekuti vatengesi vangave vachida kutarisa kunze kwemisika yemasikirwo uye makirasi emafambiro emikana yakawanda yekukura.

Semuenzaniso, vatengesi vepasi rose vanogona kutarisa kuwedzera mararamiro avo ekubudirira pamakore anotevera sezvo vasingasviki mungozi uye vachipa kudzorera kunokonzera kuenzaniswa nemakambani akabudirira. Zvinogonawo kuva zvakakosha kuderedza kusangana kwebato uye zvingangowedzera kuwedzerwa kune teknolojia .

The Bottom Line

Vashandi vemari mumwe nomumwe vakaudzwa kuti vagadzire kugadzirisa gore negore muhutano hwe7-8% pavanenge vachironga kubhadhara, asi izvi zvinodzoka zvingasava zvishoma pamakumi emakumi anotevera, maererano neshumo reMcKinsey & Company. Kunyange zvazvo hutsva hutsva hwekwenyanzvi hunogona kuchinja hutaurirwo uhwu, vashandi vanofanirwa kuronga zvakanyanya kunaka uye tariro kune zvakanakisisa kuitira kuti vakwanise kutarisira mari yavo uye vimbise basa rekubhadhara mari panguva yakakodzera.