Zvinhu Zviviri Zvinokosha Zvimwe Mitsara Inotsanangura Kurongwa Kwemisika
Vatengesi vemabhizimisi vane mutauro vose zvavo. Mutengo wakataurwa pamusoro pezvinhu zvinowanzova mari kana mari yakatarwa, asi kunyange kazhinji ndiyo mutengo wemashandiro emangwana emangwana anoshandiswa mune ramangwana-uye iyo mitengo inotaura chete chikamu chenyaya iyo inosvika pakukosha kwe a commodity.
Mumwe mutengesi akatarisa mufananidzo wakareba zvikuru kuti unzwisise kukosha kwezvinhu.
MaBhuku eMitengo
Imwe marongerwo emakambani inosanganisira premiums kana kukodzwa kwezvikero zvakasiyana zvezvinhu, pamwe nekugadzirisa kupararira apo chimwe chinhu chiri chibereko cheumwe.
Inogonawo kusanganisira kushandiswa kwechimwe chezvinhu zveimwe, pamwe chete ne-inter-commodity kupararira uye kupararira kwekarenda.
Karenda inopararira ndeyomusiyano wemitengo iyo yakafanana chaiyo yekutengeserana ine nguva dzakasiyana dzekutakura nguva kana nguva. Vanowanzopa mumwe muongorori mamwe ehutano hwakanakisisa maererano nehuwandu huripo hwekugovera uye kudiwa mune chimwe chinhu chakagadzirwa.
Mune "zvinhu zvinotaurirana", mazwi maviri anotsanangura mamiriro ezvinhu emusika ane chokuita nekupararira kwekarenda: contango uye kumashure .
Contango Haisi Dhani Idzva
Apo mutengesi wezvokutengeserana anoreva kudimbu, iyo misika yemusika ndeyo imwe iyo iyo mitengo mumitambo yekubvisa kure yakakwirira kudarika iyo iri mumwedzi inenge yaswedera. Heano muenzaniso unoshandisa COMEX Gold yeramangwana:
December 2014: $ 1192.40
February 2015: $ 1194.00
August 2015: $ 1195.10
December 2015: $ 1202.00
December 2016: $ 1214.00
December 2017: $ 1236.90
Cherechedza kuti ramangwana rega rega rakarambidzwa rinoshanda sei pamabasa ekutengeserana kwepamusoro pamatengesi emasango. Izwi rokuti "chitubu chinotakura" uye "misika yakatarwa" inofananidzwa nemakango.
Kudzokera Kwakanyorwa
Apo matengo ari pedyo ari akakwirira kudarika kutengesa kwekutengesa, mutengo iwoyo uri kumashure. Mitengo mumwedzi inoshandiswa yakadzoka inopera zvishoma nezvishoma mumusana wekudzokera kumashure kana mushure mokudzokera shure.
Uyu muenzaniso unoshandisa NYMEX mafuta mashoma emangwana:
November 2014: $ 89.83
December 2015: $ 88.73
December 2016: $ 84.05
December 2017: $ 83.05
December 2018: $ 82.83
December 2019: $ 82.00
Cherechedza kuti ramangwana rega rega rakarambidzwa rinoshanda sei nekutengeserana pamutengo unoderera zvishoma nezvishoma mumusika wakadzorerwa shure. Izwi rokuti "kutakura" uye "misika yepamusoro" inofananidzwa nekudzokera shure.
Nei Kudzokera Kunokosha?
Kana pane nguva shoma shoma kana kuti kwenguva refu muhomwe yezvigadzirwa, mikana inenge yakatengeswa mumakethe ichasvika pakudzokera shure. Ipamusoro-soro yemitengo inogona kukanganisa kudiwa kana kuwedzera munguva imwecheteyo vachikurudzira varairi kuti vawedzere kukohwa nekukurumidza sezvavanogona kushandisa kushandisa yakakurumidza kutengesa mitengo.
Funga nezve mutengo we steak. Kana hupenyu hwemombe huchikwira nekuda kwekushaiwa, vatengi vanogona kusarudza kutenga inguruve sechinotsiva kana nyama yenguruve isingadhuri. Panguva imwecheteyo, varimi vemapurotini vemhuka vachaedza kuwedzera kugoverwa kwemombe kunoshandisa mari yepamusoro.
Nei Contango Matter?
Kusiyana naizvozvo, zvakasara mune zvekutengesa zvinowanzozviratidza sega sangano rinouya pakupararira kwekarenda. Nheyo yekusangana kwegakava ndeyekuti zvinhu zvizhinji zviri pedyo nechepamusoro hazvivimbisi zvinhu zvakakwana mune ramangwana riri kure.
Zvechokwadi, kana zviwanikwa zvakakwirira zvakanyanya, varimi vangave vanocheka pakugadzirwa kwemangwana. Izvo zvakasara zvinozoderera uye matengo achamuka nekuda kweshoma kudyara.
Kubva pamuongorori wemutengi, zvinhu zvakawanda zvinotungamirira kumadhorosi ekuderera zvinogona kuwedzera kudiwa. Funga nezve peteroli mutengo. Pavanodonha, vanhu vanowanzotyaira uye izvi zvinononoka kuderedza swelled supplies. Mune zvimwe zvinhu, misika yemasango inowanikwawo nokuti mari, kuchengetedza, uye inshuwarisi yezvimwe zvinhu zvinokonzera kuti zvishoma nezvishoma zvikamu zvakakwirira zvigaro zvichienderana nekudiwa kwekutakura zvinyorwa zvakasara.
Mienzaniso ye steak uye petroolin inoratidza kuti, kubva mune zvoupfumi chete, mutengo wemari inoshanda. Kunzwisisa sango uye kudzokera shure kunogona kukubatsira mukuongorora kuwanikwa kwezvino uye zvinoda zvigadzirwa zvemakethe chero ipi zvayo.
Zvokudya mumutengesi wekutakura-Muenzaniso wekare
Mutengo wemari wakapinda mumusika webhebhu pavakasimudza mugore ra2011. Misika yebhebhe iyoyo yakatora motokari muna 2015 nokuda kwezvikonzero zviviri: Dhora raive neukama hwakasiyana nemari kana zvinhu zvakasvibirira, uye yakasimudzira mitengo yakakwirira uye yekutengesa yakaitwa nekuderera pasi.
Panguva imwecheteyo, kwaiva nekuderera kwezvemari muChina . China yakanga iri iyo yaidiwa rutivi rwekuenzanisa kwezvinhu zvemakore mazhinji. Misika yemombe yakaguma muna 2011 yaiva muchikamu nekuda kweshandiswa kweChinese nekuchengetwa kwezvinhu zvakagadzirwa. Nechina inononoka, inoda kuti zvinhu zvigadziriswe pasi.
Kunyange mumadhora ekuderera kwemahara, gore rinenge rimwe remangwana risina kunyanya kushandiswa kwemaawa-rinoshanda kwemwedzi unoenderana nesangano rimwe chete rakasunungurwa-rakaputika kusvika kudarika 20 muzana panguva dzakasiyana-siyana mukati megore.
Dambudziko reDisemba 2015 / December 2016 NYMEX yakawandisa mafuta yakawandisa yakamira pane 10 muzana musi waSeptember 8, 2015, ichiri pamusoro pezvikwereti zvemazuva iwayo. Dambudziko iri mumisika zhinji yekutengeswa munaSeptember 2015 yakaratidza kusanganiswa kwezvinhu zvakakwana uye zvido zvishoma.
Contango uye kudzokera shure chiratidzo chenguva yekugovera uye zvido zvinotarisirwa .