Pamberi pekutaurirwa kwavo muna 2004 ne ETF yegoridhe (Symbol GLD), mari yekutengeswa kwezvinhu uye kubatanidzwa mumisika yakangowanikwa kune vatengesi vemakambani kuburikidza nehupenyu, ramangwana rekutsvaga kwemisika. ETFs uye ETNs dzakagadzira zvigadzirwa zvekutsvaga nekutengesa zvichibvira kuburikidza nemadzitateguru ehutano hwekwereta.
A kutarisa-kumashure
Kutarisa pamatengo akawanda ezvimwe zvinhu zvikuru pakupera kwa1999 inoratidza kukosha kukuru kwekuonga kwakaitika munharaunda iyi. Mutengo wegoridhe waiva $ 283 pamusi wekutanga pazuva rekutengesa muna 2000; yakasimuka kusvika kuma $ 1920.70 mugore ra2011. Mutengo wesirivha waiva $ 5.355 uye wakasimuka kusvika madhora makumi mashanu nemazana maviri muna 2011. Copper yakazarura mireniyamu itsva pamasendi 85,45 pound uye yakatengeswa kudarika madhora 4,60 muna 2011. Mafuta asina kuchena akafamba kubva pamadhora 25.20 kusvika $ 147 perhare muna 2008. Nyuchi yakaputika kubva ku $ 2.045 kusvika kune $ 8.50 nebhasira muna 2012, uye kune mizhinji yakawanda mienzaniso yemutengo kukoshesa mumisika yakashambadzira yakave kubva muna 2000.
China uye idhora inogumisa nzombe
Muna 2011 uye 2012, mari zhinji yemitengo yakasvika kumusoro uye mumakore akatevera, vakaruramisa pasi. Nhamba shoma yezvinhu zvakagadzirwa nemafuta yakadzokera kumusana wavo 2000 mazinga. Zvimwe zvinokosha zvakakonzera kugadziriswa kwemakona emombe mumisika yezvokudya. Zvichida chikonzero chinonyanya kukosha chave chiri kupedzisira kwehupfumi muChina.
China, rudzi rine vanhu vanodarika mabhiriyoni matatu, rinowedzera kupfuura 17.5% yevanhu vepasi rose. China inowedzera mairi-tarakimu kukura yakava yakaoma kuchengetedza sezvo ukuru hweGNP yayo yakakura kusvika kune yepfumi yeupfumi huru munyika yose. Sezvo China yakakura, kuda kwezvinhu zvakagadzirwa kwakawedzera. Rudzi rwacho rwakapedza makore kuvaka chivakovheni zvichiita kuti zvidikanwe kutenga uye kuchengetedza zvinhu zvakawanda. China yakava chikamu chekutsvaga kwekukwikwidzana kwakakosha munyika yenyika mumakumi emakore adarika. Mamwe marudzi anovimba nehuwandu hwezvigadzirwa zvemari kune zviyero zvakadai seAustralia, Canada, Brazil , Russia uye vamwe vakaona mari inowedzera, uye mari yavo inofanirwa semugumisiro wekambani yemombe mumatengo emutengo. Kuderera kwezvemari muChina kwakakonzera kudiwa kwezvinhu zvishoma nezvishoma. Iko mari yezvigadzirwa zvekugadzira nyika yakaderera pasi pamwe nemiti yakasvibiswa munguva yekutengeswa kwebere.
Panguva imwecheteyo, zvigadzirwa zvakagadzirirwa zvakakwana zvakanyanyisa dutu. Dhora reUnited States, nyika inochengeterwa mari, ndiyo nzira yekutengesa yemari yemari yakasvibiswa. Iko kune ukama hwepashure hwepakati pakati pebhadha nekutengeswa kwematengo . Rally yakakosha muodhora yakatanga munaMeyi 2014 yakakonzera dhora reUnited States kuonga nekudarika 27% munaMarch 2015.
Iko yakasimba kudhora yakaita kuti mitengo yekutengeserana iwedzere kunyanya kuwedzera, kuwedzera kumutengo kushandiswa sezvinotengeswa zvakaderera pasi mumadhora asi asi kwete mune mamwe mazwi emari pasi pose. Munguva iyi, kushaya simba kwehupfumi kwakanga kusingogumiri kuChina. Nyika dzakawanda dzeAsia dzakabatwa nehupfumi hwezvemari kubva kuAsia guru rezvemari. Sezvo China yakabatwa nehupfumi hwezvemari; vamwe vose veAsia vakawana chirwere. Ezvo hupfumi hweEurope hwakatamburawo pasi pekureruka kwekushaiwa basa nekuwedzera kwehupfumi mumamiriro eEuropean europe ayo aida bhailouts iyo yakaderedza hupfumi hwose hweEurope. Rimwe dambudziko kumunyika yeEurope raiva dambudziko revapoteri kubva kuMiddle East nekuNorth Africa izvo zvakaguma nekuwedzera kukuru kwevanhu vakapararira munyika yose. Dambudziko rehutano hwevanhu rakakonzera kuwedzera kudzvinyirira uye kudzvinyirira kwezvemari kuEurope.
Muna 2015 uye muna 2016 kuwedzera kwezviitiko zvegandanga muEurope zvakare kwakawedzera kushayikwa kwehupfumi.
Makore akawanda emakore
Pakati pegore ra2011 uye kutanga kwegore ra2016, zvinhu zvakawanda zvekutengeserana zvakaderera kumazinga asingaoneki mumakore. Gorosi yakawa kubva kune $ 1900 kusvika kune $ 1050 pasi pegore ra2015. Mafuta asina kuchena, ayo akanga achiri kutengeserana ne $ 100 pamigomo munaJune 2014, akawira pasi pe $ 26.05 pakati pemwedzi waFebruary 2016. Copper yakawira pasi pe $ 1.95 per pound munaJanuary muna 2016, pasi pehafu yemutengo waitengeswa muna 2011. Mitengo yezvokurima zvekurimwa yakawira sematombo nekuda kwedhora rakasimba uye zvirimwa zvakashata pasi pose mukati memakore pakati pe2012 ne2015 semamiriro ekukura zvakakwana akawedzera bheya mushamba muzvinhu zvekutengesa.
Mamiriro ehupfumi ehupfumi pasi rose aive chikonzero chakakonzerwa nekuderera kwematengo emhando. Central Bank, inotevera dambudziko rezvemari munyika yose muna 2008, rakaderedza nhamba yezvibereko uye yakatanga mitemo yekukurudzira kushandisa uye kubhadhara nekudzivirira kuchengetedza. Iyi "kukurudzira" yakaita kuti gumbo rekupedzisira rive mumatengo emari muna 2008 ne2011 semadhora ekubhadhara mashoma anowirirana nehutano hwezvinhu zvakakosha. Nharaunda dzekuderera dzakaderera pasi rose zvinoreva kuti inodhura zvishoma kudhura mari kana kutakura zvigadzirwa zvezvinhu. Iko-kuwanikwa kwekutora kwakaita kuti irege kudhura kutakura zvinhu zvekuchengetedza zvigadzirwa zvekudaro zvichipa rubatsiro rwechikamu. Zvisinei, simba reodhora uye kuenderera mberi kwemamiriro ehupfumi zvakanyanya kunopesana nemari yakaderera kubva ku2013 kusvika pakutanga kwegore ra2016.
Gore Idzva - Kusiyana kweMakodhi Makamba
Mukupera kwegore ra2015 uye kutanga kwegore ra2016, zviduku zvekutambira zvakasara munzvimbo dzakapoteredza nyika. MuEurope neJapan, nhamba yekutora inotamira mundima isina kunaka - inodhura mari kuchengetedza mari mubhangi. Panguva imwecheteyo, rally muDhora reUnited States yakatanga kuderera pamusoro pemwedzi yekutanga ye 2016. Sezvo dhora rakaderera pasi, kudengenyeka muzvinhu zvakawanda zvekutengesa zvakaitika. Mutengo wegoridhe wakasimuka wakabuda kunze kwegedhi muna 2016; panguva yekutanga yegore, yakakosheswa neinopfuura 16%, uye yakawedzera kune iyo inowanikwa munaEpril naMay. Mafuta asina mafuta akashandiswa kubva musi waFebruary 11 anosvika madhora makumi maviri nemazana mana pamigero yekupera kweApril 2016 - kuwedzera kwema80% mumavhiki gumi. Mhangura nedzimwe nheyo dzesimbi dzedare dzakasimudzika. Pakupera kweEpril, kunyange matengo ezvegorosi akatanga kutamira kumusoro pakusanganiswa kwekusava nechokwadi pamusoro pemamiriro okunze kwegore idzva rekurima uye mari yakashata yeSUS. Mune chimwe chiratidzo chekuwedzera kwechido uye chiito mune zvekutengeserana kwemashamba, Baltic Dry Index yakaratidza kubva kune nguva yose-yakasara ye 290 musi waFebruary 11, 2016, kusvika kune mazana manomwe uye yaiva pa 631 kubva musi waMay 6, 2016 - kuwedzera kwepamusoro 117% . Shipments yemari yakawanda yakawanda pasi pose yakawedzera sekudiwa uye mitezo yezvikepe zvinotakura zvinhu zvakagadzirwa zvakasimudzirwa zvakanyanya kupfuura mwedzi miviri.
Zvigadzirwa zvinonyanya kushandiswa uye zvigadziriswa. Chimwe nechimwe chezvinhu zvinenge zvakagadziriswa uye zvinoda zvigadziriswa. Zvokurima zvekurima zvakanyanyoenderana nemamiriro ekunze. Kukura kwezvehupfumi munyika yose kunokanganisa zvigadzirwa zvematare. Zvigadzirwa zvinokosha zvipfeko zvekutya uye kusava nechokwadi mumisika. Kukura uye geopolitical dynamics kunokonzera masimba emvura. Zvisinei, vose vane chinhu chimwe chete. Munguva yemakwenzi emombe, zvigadzirwa zvinowanzosangana nematengo apo vatori vanowedzera michina, zvinyorwa zvinokura uye zvinoda zvikwereti. Asiwo, pamisika yebhebhe inowanzosvika pamatengo apo kushambadzira kunonoka, zvinyorwa zvinoderera uye zvinoda kuwedzera. Iyi mitemo ndeyokuita kuti kuve nyore kwekutenderera kukuru kwezvinhu zvemari. Muhafu yekutanga ye 2016, tiri kuona zviratidzo zvekutsvaga mumisika yemitengo mushure memakore anenge mashanu ematengesi ebere.
Chinhu chimwe chete chokuyeuka pamusoro pezvinhu zvinodhaka ndezvokuti kuda kwezvinhu zvakagadzirwa nguva dzose kunowedzera. Izvozvo ndezvokuti kuda ndekupedzisira basa rehuwandu hwevanhu pasi pano pasi. Muna 1959, paive nevashoma kusvika mabhiriyoni matatu vanhu munyika. Muna 2016, nhamba iyoyo yakamira pamusoro pe7,3 bhiriyoni. Zvigadzirwa zvipera zvipo; kubudiswa kunogona kungowedzera pamatengo akakwirira. Izvozvo ndezvokuti kukwanisa kubvisa zvigadzirwa kubva kune zvakaputika zvepasi kana kuti zvikure muvhu rakaorera zvinoenderana nemutengo . Pamitengo yakakwirira, kukwirira kwemari inoshandiswa kunobudirira asi pamitengo yakaderera iyi huwandu inenge isina uneconomic. Ndicho chakaita kuti mutengo wemafuta asina kukwana uwe kubva kudarika $ 100 pamubhadhari kusvika pasi pe $ 30 - nyika yakave yakamira mumafuta emafuta uye kudiwa hazvina kusimbisa mutengo.
Mutengo wemitengo yakadzokera shure mushure mekuwedzera muna 2011-2012. Muna 2016, pane zviratidzo zvekuti kudzoka kunogona kuguma sehuwandu hwevanhu, mamiriro okunze, mari uye mamwe matambudziko ezvemari ari kuunganidza kuti agadzikane matengo. Kunyange zvazvo mutengo unogona kuramba uri pasi zvakaderera kwemwedzi kana kunyange makore, kana zvigadzirwa zvatanga kumira, tinogona kuva pamucheto wekambani yemombe itsva mumisika yakasvibirira.
Mutsva Mutsva Bhudziro- Mutengo Wakazara Pasi
Nharaunda dzinosara dzinoramba dzakadzika kana dzisina kunaka munyika yose iyo inobatsira pane zvekutengesa. Mukufarira kwekusimudzira hupfumi munyika yose, mabhizimusi makuru ari kuita kuti zvikwereti zvikwanise kuve nehuwandu hwehutsika hwakakosha. Njodzi yekuderera mitengo inopedzisira kuwedzera. Iko-inotora mutengo inowanikwa yakaenzana nemari yekudhinda. Kana mari isingasviki, mune imwe nzvimbo-yakaderera inharaunda, inowanzotora mari yakawanda kutenga zviduku zvishoma zvakaoma kana zvigadzirwa.
Kuratidzira, kana kutengesa mutengo, mune zvigadzirwa, zvinowanzove zvakakwirira kudarika mune dzimwe misika yemari. Nokudaro, chikwata chiri mubasa mumutengo wezvigadzirwa chiratidzo chokuti kukura kwezvemari kunogona kuwedzera, uye kana zvigadzirwa zvatanga kutanga kuratidza kufarira kwemazingira, kutengesa kwezvinhu zvingaguma nokukurumidza. Central mabhandi uye vakuru vezvemari vanogona kuzviwana vari panzvimbo iyo pavanofanira kusimudza mitengo yekurwisana mukurwisana nematambudziko ekuderedza, izvo zvingave zvisina kunaka pamatengo emafuta. Izvo zvinogona kuwedzera kusvika pamutengo mukuru wekutengesa kwezveramangwana.
Mukutanga kwaMay 2016, tiri kuona zvimwe zviratidzo zvekuti zvinhu zviri kuunza kudzoka shure kwemazuva akawanda emakore ekutengeserana mutengo. Zvinogona kunge zvichinyengera-asi zvichitanga kusada kwemashamba aya; pane inogona kuva nezviito zvizhinji zviri mberi munyika yenyika. Chengetedza mabhandi ako akagara akasungirirwa; Misika yemakwenzi nguva dzose inofamba musango.