Iko kune hukama hwepashure hwepakati pakati pezvinhu zvekutengeswa nematengo emitengo. Chikonzero icho chido chekuda mari uye zvigadzirwa zvemari zvakasanganiswa zvakanyatsobatanidzwa ndezvokubhadhara kwekugadzirisa zvinyorwa. Kana zvikwereti zvikwira zvakakwirira, mutengo wezvinhu zvinowanzoenderera mberi. Kana zvikwereti zvinowedzera pasi, zvinhu zvinowanzokwira mumutengo.
Munharaunda yakaderera inotarisirwa nharaunda, mari yekubhadhara mari yakasara yakaderera kupfuura apo iyo inowanikwa muzvikwereti yakakwirira.
Funga nezvebhizimisi rinobudisa chigadzirwa chinoda simbi, mineral kana simba. Icho chinhu chakanyanya kudhura kuchengetedza nguva yakareba zvinodiwa zvezvinhu zvakada mukutengesa apo mari inodhura yakawanda. Mutengo wekutakura ishoko rokuti vashandi vekutengesa (uye vatengi) vanoshandisa kurondedzera mari dzinobatanidzwa nekugadzirisa zvinyorwa kwenguva.
Kubva pane dambudziko rezvemari rose ra2008, mabhizimusi epakati pepasi pose akaderedza chido chezvibereko kune zvisati zvaitika kare. Vatongi vezvemari vakashandisawo chigadzirwa, kuwedzera kwekutengesa (QE), izvo zvakavabvumira kudzikinura mutongi uye mune dzimwe nguva zvikwereti zvemakambani zvinosungirwa kana zvisungo.
Central banking inotora nguva shomanana yemari yemitemo
Central mabanki haatungamiri kwenguva yakareba yekutora mutengo, asi vanoisa mazinga ekukwereta kwenguva pfupi. MuUnited States, mukana wekuti US Federal Reserve mishonga yemabhengi evanhu venguva pfupi inotora chikwereti inonzi Fed Funds muyero, inogadzwa mwedzi wega neGreen Open Market Committee.
Masoko anowanzotarisira chisarudzo chebhandi chepamusoro pamusoro pemazuva ekupedzisira.
Zvizhinji zvinofungidzirwa zvinotarisa huwandu hweFed Funds rate. Bhengi guru rinofanira kuongorora nyika yehupfumi nehupfumi hwepasi rese. Zvinhu zviduku uye macro zvoupfumi zvinoita kuti mutungamiri wehuwandu huvepo. Kukura kwezvehupfumi kunonyanya kukoshesa mabhandi makuru.
Kana hupfumi huri kuwedzera nokukurumidza, simba rezvemari rinowedzera kuwedzera mitero kana kusimbisa chikwereti kuderedza kukura zvisati zvawedzera nokukurumidza. Haiti kana kuti yepamusoro yehuwandu yemitemo inowanikwa apo bhenji guru riri muchikamu chinomisa. Apo hupfumi huri kunonoka, bhanhire guru rinowanzosunungura chikwereti kupa hurumende kune hupfumi. Chiito kana chigaro chekugara chinowanikwa apo bhenji guru riri muchikamu chinosunungura. Nhepfenyuro yeHazkish kana inotyisa inowanzoitika munharaunda inogona kudarika makore. Zvimwe zvikonzero zvinogona kukanganisa mutemo wemari webhandi guru iri basa kana kukura kwebasa kana kushandiswa kwemashoko, kuwedzera kwezvinyorwa nedzidziso kubva kune dzimwe dzipfumi pasi rose. Apo bhenji guru rinomesa, rinoreva kuti kukura kune dzimwe nzvimbo kunoitika nokukurumidza uye kunoda kunonoka. Apo bhizimusi guru rinodzinga mutemo wemari inowanzoreva kuti hupfumi hunonyanya kudikanwa uye hunoda chikwata chechikwata.
Kunyange zvazvo pfupi pfupi mutemo wezvemari inokonzerwa nehutano hwebhangi rehurumende, kushandiswa kwemari kwenguva yakareba kunotarirwa chete nemakambani masimba mune zvehupfumi huripo. Zvisinei, kuchinja kwenguva pfupi kwematongerwo enyika kunowanzotora nguva yakareba kwenguva refu. Hapana kuwirirana kwe100% pakati pehuwandu hwehupfupi uye hurefu hwehuwandu hwemazana, asi kakawanda kupfuura kwete apo nguva dzenguva shomanana dzichienderera mberi, dzekugara-kwemazuva emitengo dzinotevera uye apo nguva shomanana yehuwandu inowedzera, nguva yakareba-yemazuva kukwira pamwe chete.
Kubudirira muNhamba Dzakanaka Kubva muna 2008
Kubva muna 2008 matambudziko emari, mabhizimusi makuru enyika ave ari muimba yekugara kwenguva yakareba kana kutengesa. Muchikamu ichi chinotyisa, mabanki makuru akaedza kukurudzira kukura nekukurudzira kubhadhara nekushandisa nekudzivisa kuchengeta. Kazhinji purogiramu yakaderera inowedzera inokanganisa, asi kutyisidzirwa kwehurongwa hwepasi rose muna 2008 kwaive kwakadai kuti kusunungurwa kusati kwamboitika kwakave kwakakosha kwenguva yakareba. Pakutanga, mitemo yekugara yakaita kuti mitengo yezvinhu zvigone kuenda mberi ichipa hukama hwepakati pepakati pakati pemitengo uye zvinhu zvakakosha.
Zvisinei, apo yakava pachena kuti Sangano reUnited States raizogumisa mutemo waro hwekugadzirisa zvishoma uye kutanga kutarisa kuwedzera kwechikwereti chezvikwereti apo dzimwe nyika dzakaramba dzichifamba munzira inotyisa, mutengo wezvinhu zvakawanda wakaendesa mberi.
Kuomesa nyaya dzaiva ukama huri pakati peAmerica mubereko uye mari yeUnited States, idhora. Sezvo mutengesi yaifunga kuti mari shomanana yekugara mari inozoita kuti chibereko chakawedzerwa chemadhora chienzaniswe nedzimwe mari munyika, dollar yakatanga kunzwisisa pamusoro pezvimwe zvinoshandiswa kune dzimwe nyika. MunaMeyi 2014, dhora rakatanga rally rally rakatora dhora reralar kubva kumativi 79 kusvika kune zana mugore rimwechete. Kunyange zvazvo kuwedzera kwezvikwereti kwakaramba kuripo mumamiriro ezvakaitika kare mumakethe vaitenda kuti vaizosimuka sezvo zvinyorwa zveFed zvakashandurwa kubva pane zvinoshandiswa kusvika kune imwe nyika yea hawkish pamusoro pesarudzo yemari zvichiita kuti dhora riwedzere kukosha kana richienzaniswa nedzimwe mari. Dhora ndiyo inoshandiswa mari yepasi rose uye nhamba yekuenzanisa nzira yezvinhu zvakawanda. Nokudaro, dhora raikoshesa rakakonzera kuti mitengo yezvinhu zvakawanda iende kune imwe yakaderera mumakore.
MunaDisemba 2015, Fed yakagadzirisa mari yeFed Fund iyo yekutanga panguva yemakore mapfumbamwe. Kunyange zvazvo kuwedzera kwacho kwaiva kadiki, bhanji guru rakapikira misika 3-4 yakawanda yezvikwereti muna 2016. Maitiro e hawkish akaita kuti mitengo yezvinhu zvakasvibirira iparadzwe ipiwa kaviri kushamiswa kwezvinhu zvose zviri kuwedzera kutakura zvinyorwa uye nedhora rinopfuura rose zvikanganiso zvezvinhu zvekutengesa.
Muna 2016 Fed haina Kufurikidza Nezvakavimbisa
Pane zvakawanda zvakaongororwa uye kuunganidza deta iyo bhandi guru rinotungamirirwa risati raita shanduko yemari yemari. Kunyange zvazvo kushanduka kubva kune imwe nyika kusvika kune dzimwe nyika kunowanikwa muUnited States munguva yegore ra2015, hapana humwe hutsika hwekuwedzerwa kwechido chekuwedzera. Bhizimusi guru rinotarisa zviitiko zvezvehupfumi kuti zviite zvinoenderana nemamiriro ezvinhu akakodzera kuchinja munguva shomanana yekutambira mutengo. Zvichipa kushaya simba kune dzimwe nyika uye kutengesa kwehupfumi kwehupfumi, Fed yakasarudza kuenderera mberi nekuwedzera kwezvikwereti munguva zhinji ye 2016. Kushayikwa kwemazinga ekukwirira kwaive kubuda kubva kune zviratidzo zvakagadzirwa nebhanga guru kumisika pamagumo e 2015 uye zvakaguma mune imwe simba kudarika uye kuenderera mberi kwemari yeUnited States. Somugumisiro wekushaikwa kwepakati pebhanho rekuita, dhora rakaderera rakaderera, uye mari yezvibereko yakaramba iri kumazinga akaonekwa munaDecember 2015 zvichiita kuti mutengo wezvinhu uwedzere. Sezvakangoita zvinhu zvakaderera apo misika yakatenda kuti Fed yaizokwira mizinga uye dhora raizotangira kumapeto kwegore ra2015, vakaonga apo izvi hazvina kuitika.
Kuona Kwezveramangwana: Chii Chinowanikwa Kana Mitengo Inofambira Mberi?
Kana nhoroondo ichitungamiri, zvikwereti zvepamusoro zvakanyanya muUnited States, uye pasi pose, zvichave zvisina kunaka kwekutengeswa kwemitengo . Kana mitero inowedzera mari yekutakura, zvinyorwa zvichawedzera, uye izvo zvinokurudzira vatengi vezvinhu zvakagadzirwa kutenga zvigadzirwa pane zvinodiwa-apo pane kuchengetedza zvigadziriswa pamusana pemari yakakwirira yekubhadhara. Izvo ndizvo zvakaitika kare zvakatidzidzisa uye nhoroondo inowanzodzokorora pachayo kana zvasvika kumagariro ezvoupfumi.
Kune rumwe rutivi, kana bhanhire repakati reUnited States richimirira kwenguva yakareba kuti riomerezve kana kuti kuwedzere kuwedzera kwezvikwereti, ivo vanomira dambudziko rekuwedzera kamwe kamwe muhuwandu hwekutengesa. Apo kuwedzera kwekuwedzera kunowedzera, mari yakawanda inodzinga zvinhu zvishomanana, uye mutengo wezvinhu zvinowedzera, dzimwe nguva zvinoshamisa pamusoro penguva pfupi. Kana kuwedzera kwenyika kuchiwedzera kusvika pane imwe nzvimbo iyo mitengo inofamba ichikwira nokukurumidza, kupisa kana kuti hyperinflation inogona kuitika. Muchiitiko ichocho, kukosha kwemapepanhau mari kunogona kuderera zuva rimwe nerimwe kana kunyange neawa. Ndiko kusaka central bank policy ndiyo yakakosha kubatanidza chiito. Nhepfenyuro yebhandi guru rehurumende nderokudzora mari yemitemo yekuita kuti hurumende irege kupisa kana kupera mufashoni. Mutemo wemari ndiyo chinhu chakakosha pakuzadzisa chinangwa chekupedzisira icho chigadzikane.
Iko mikana ndeyokuti kana zvikwereti zvinotanga kubuda zvichatanga kubuda kubva pasi zvino zvishoma, zvigadzirwa zvemitengo zvichawa. Zvisinei, hapana hunovimbisa nokuti maitiro emisika yemafuta inotarisirwa zvichienderana nokuti vari kuwedzera nekuda kwematambudziko ekuderedza nekuda kwemakore mazhinji emitemo yekugara muUnited States uye pasi pose. Uyezve, misika yemari inowanikwa munyika yose kuti vanhu pasi rose vese vashandisi vemidziyo. Kunyange zvazvo sangano guru rebhangi muEurope neJapan rakaita kuti nyika idzi dzideredze mitengo yenguva pfupi munharaunda isina kunaka, mamiriro ehupfumi anoramba asina simba. Nhamba dzisina kunaka dzinogona kuramba dzichiwedzera kukosha kwekuita zvematongerwe enyika mazano munyika dzakavakidzana. Bhizimusi rekuAmerica rinofanira kuongorora mitemo yemari yenyika dzakapoteredza nekuda kwekutengesa kwenyika dzakawanda nezvimwe zvinhu. Kakawanda, mabhandi makuru epasi anogadzirisa hurongwa hwekuwana zvikamu zvakanakisisa zvehupfumi hwepasi rese huri mukufarira kumarudzi ose.
Kubvira muna 2008 kusvika muna 2016 mutemo wenyika wakanga uine hutsinye kana zvichienderana nekutonga kwemari. Kukura kwakaramba kusingagoneki, uye izvi zvinoreva kuti mikana yekuenderera mberi kwezvikwereti zvezvikwereti zvisiri zvepamusoro zvicharamba zvichienderera mberi. Zvisinei, pane nguva ichauya iyo mabhizimusi makuru achaita kuti awedzere mitengo. Izvo zvinokonzera kufarira kuwedzera kwekuwedzera zvicharamba zvichiwedzera kuwedzera.
Kana iwe uchiyeuka nyaya yeGoddilocks neItatu Bears , peji yacho inotonhora kana kuti inopisa kwazvo; zvaifanira kuva zvakarurama. Kana mamiriro ehupfumi achinyanya kupisa, kutengesa kwepfuma kunotyisa, uye kudarika kwekukwirira kwevanhu vanozove kudikanwa kuchavhiringidza bhizinesi nekuita kuti mari kana kuti zvigadziriswe zvinyangarika kubva mune zvekurima. Kana iri inotonhorera, uye mabhandi makuru ari kuramba achiwedzera mafashamo nemari shoma kuburikidza nehuwandu hwekugadzirisa uye huwandu hwechibereko chekuita, mikana ndeyokuti mari yakawanda ichakurumidza kupinda muhurongwa uhu hunopera huchava hutsva hwemari yakawanda yekudzinga zvinhu zvakapedzisira.
Sezvaunogona kuona, mabhizimusi makuru enyika ane basa guru pamapfudzi avo, uye vanofanira kuita zvakananga nekuchenjerera kudzivirira njodzi dzemari. Kana vakazvitora zvakanaka, mutengo wezvinhu unowira kana kumira kana mitero ichikwira mune ramangwana. Apo patinoramba tichiri mumamiriro ekutengeserana mune zvemari pasi rose, mikana ndeyokuti zvinhu zvitsva zvichaenderera mberi kuonga sezvazvakabva kubvira kutanga kwa 2016. Ndicho chikonzero mabhizimusi makuru anotarisa kunyanya kutengeswa kwezvinhu zvekugadzirisa uye chiyero chekuwedzera. Vanogadzirira targets nokuda kwekupedzisira, Fed inowanikwa ikozvino inenge 2%, uye inflation inoramba iri pasi pechiyero ichocho kubva munaAugust 2016. Zvisinei, izvozvo zvinogona kuchinja nokukurumidza sezvo mutengo wemari inogona kuva inonyanya kushaya zvinhu munyika.
Kusarudzwa kweUnited States kwe 2016 uye Nhamba dzeInharaunda
Kunyange zvazvo Dhesi yakasara pfupi pfupi purogiramu yemitengo isingashanduki pakupera kwaNovember 2016, mitengo yakatanga kuenderera mberi munaJuly sezvo mushambadzi webhandi wakawedzerwa. Nguva yakareba-yemazuva inotama inofamba nekuda kwemashamba emashamba. Zvigumisiro zve sarudzo dzeUnited States uye tarisiro yekusimudzirwa kwehupfumi nekuda kwekucheka kwemitero, basa guru rekushandiswa kwezvivako uye mirairo shoma yakapikirwa munguva yemushandirapamwe inowedzera mikana yokuti Federal Reserve ichawedzera kuwedzerwa kwekukwirira kwemajeri mumwedzi inotevera. Nhamba yepamusoro inogona kuenzanisa pamitengo yezvimwe zvinhu uye inokonzera hutsika hunoita nekuda kwechiremba chakasimba , asi kuwedzera kwekuda kwezvinhu zvakagadzirwa kuti zviite mapurogiramu ezvigadzirwa zvigaro zvinogona kutsigira zvimwe zvinhu zvekudya mumwedzi inotevera.