Kudzoka hakugoni kufanotaurwa asi matongerwo emangano anogona kubatsira
Iko Kakawanda Ko Stock Market Inodzinga Mari Here?
Kusagadzikana kwemisika yemabhizimisi inodzoka kunoitika, pachiyero, rimwe chete pamakore ose mana. Iwe uchaona makore akanaka kwazvo kupfuura mamwe makore akaipa.
Vavhareji annualized kudzoka kweS & P 500 Index yaiva inenge 11,69% kubvira muna 1973 - 2016. Mugore ripi neripi, kunyatsodzoka kwaunowana iwe kunogona kunge kwakasiyana zvikuru neyero yekudzoka.
Nhau dzinotaurirana zvakawanda pamusoro pekugadziriswa kwemisika uye kutakura misika.
- Kururamiswa kwemusika kunoreva kuti misika yekutengesa yakaenda kudarika 10% kubva pane yakatopfuura yakakwirira. Izvi zvinogona kuitika mukati megore, uye mutengesi unogona kudzoka pakupera kwegore, saka kururamiswa kwemashamba kunogona kusati kuratidzika sechinhu chisina kunaka mumwaka wekhalenda chinodzoka.
- Mushamba webere uye unoitika apo misika inodarika makumi maviri kubva muzana kubva kumusoro kwayo. Vazhinji vanotakura misika vanogara kwenguva inenge gore. Mune data iri pasi apa, unoona misika mbiri dzebere; 2002 uye muna 2008.
Nzira yekudzoka inogona kusiyana pamakumi emakumi akasiyana. Mukurega basa, kutarisa kwako kune imwe nzira yakaipa, uko makore mazhinji akaipa anowanzoitika pakutanga kwekurega basa, inotumidzwa sekutarisana nemungozi . Sezvo makore akaipa aifanira kutarisirwa, hazvireve kuti iwe haufaniri kuisa mumatanda; zvinongoreva kuti iwe unofanirwa kuisa zvaunotarisira paunoita.
Nguva muMusika vs. Kupedza Nguva yeMusika
Makore apera ane chinetso, asi chiyero chavanokubata iwe chinowanzogadziriswa kana iwe uchisarudza kuramba uine mari kana kubuda. Mumwe mutengesi ane maonero ekureba kwenguva refu anogona kunge akadzoka zvikuru, asi mumwe ane nguva pfupi yekutaridzika anopinda, uye zvino bhiri kunze kwegore rakaipa rinogona kurasikirwa.
Somuenzaniso, muna 2008, S & P 500 yakarasikirwa ne 37% yehuwandu wayo. Kana iwe wakapa $ 1 000 pakutanga kwegore mune chikwereti chemari, iwe unenge uine 37% zvishoma pamagumo egore - kana kurasikirwa kwe $ 370 - asi kungorasikirwa chete kana iwe uchitengesa kushandiswa panguva iyoyo. Kunyange zvakadaro, ukuru hwegore iroro pasi rinogona kureva kuti zvinogona kutora makore akawanda kuti iwe uwane mari yekudzorera kukosha kwayo. Mushure mokunge gore ra2008, kukosha kwako kwekutanga gore rakatevera kwaizove $ 630. Muna 2009, paive nekuwedzera kwe 26.5%. Izvi zvingadai zvakaunza kukosha kwako kusvika ku $ 797, iyo ichiri pasi pe $ $ 1 kubva pakutanga.
Muna 2010, kana iwe wakaramba uine mari, ungadai wakaona imwe kuwedzera kwe 15.1%. Mari yako ingadai yakakura kusvika $ 917, ichiri kupfupika nekugadzirisa zvizere. Muna 2011, rimwe gore rakanaka rakaitika uye iwe ungadai wakaona imwe kukurudzira, asi ne 2.1% chete. Yakanga isati yasvika yegore ra2012 yakawedzera ye 16% kuti iwe ungadai uri shure kwe $ 1 000 inotengeswa nehuwandu hwekutsvaga kwe $ 1,088.
Kana iwe wakaramba uchingotora mari mugore ra2008 raive risina kuparadza kwauri. Kana ukatengesa, zvisinei, uye wakashandura mari yako muzvikwereti zvakachengeteka , ingadai isina kukwanisa kuwana kukosha kwayo panguva iyoyo.
Hapana anoziva nguva isati yasvika apo iyo yakaipa yemisika yemabhizimisi inodzoka ichazoitika.
Kana iwe usingadi kuramba uchigadziriswa kuburikidza nemusika webhebhu pane iwe unoda kuti ugare kunze kwematokari, kana kuti ugadzirire kurasikirwa nemari, nokuti hapana munhu achakwanisa nguva dzose nguva yemusika kupinda nekunze nekudzivirira makore akadzika .
Kana iwe uchizoisa mari, unofanira kutarisira makore apera. Iwe ungashamisika sei pasi pano pavanenge vachiitika? Iwe unofanirwa kuziva kuti zvichazoitika, uye unonamatira nehurongwa hwako hwekutsvaga kwemazuva mazhinji .
Calendar Returns vs. Rolling Returns
Vazhinji varairimi havaiti mari yeJanuary 1, uye vanobva musi waDecember 31, asi kutengesa kwemari kunowanzotaurwa pamusoro pegore rekare. Imwe nzira yekutarisa kudzoka ndeyokutarisa kudzoka kwekudzoka , iyo inotarisa kudzoka kwemwedzi gumi nemaviri, saFebruary kusvika kuJanuary anotevera, Kubvumbi kusvika kuFebruary, Kubvumbi kusvika kuChipiri chinotevera.
Tarisa ma grafu epamusoro ekudzoka kwekudzoka , nokuda kwemaonero anowedzera kunze kwegore rekare rekuona. Kare gore rekudzoka rinoratidzwa mu tafura iri pasi apa.
| Historical S & P 500 Index Stock Market Inodzoka | |
| Gore | Dzokera |
| 1986 | 18.5% |
| 1987 | 5.2% |
| 1988 | 16.8% |
| 1989 | 31.5% |
| 1990 | -3.1% |
| 1991 | 30.5% |
| 1992 | 7.6% |
| 1993 | 10.1% |
| 1994 | 1.3% |
| 1995 | 37.6% |
| 1996 | 23.1% |
| 1997 | 33.4% |
| 1998 | 28.6% |
| 1999 | 21.0% |
| 2000 | -9.1% |
| 2001 | -11.9% |
| 2002 | -22.1% |
| 2003 | 28.7% |
| 2004 | 10.9% |
| 2005 | 4.9% |
| 2006 | 15.8% |
| 2007 | 5.5% |
| 2008 | -37.0% |
| 2009 | 26.5% |
| 2010 | 15.1% |
| 2011 | 2.1% |
| 2012 | 16.0% |
| 2013 | 32.4% |
| 2014 | 13.7% |
| 2015 | 1.4% |
| 2016 | 11.9% |
* Mutengo wekudzoka denga kubva ku Dimensional's Matrix Book 2016 uye DFA Kudzorera 2.0 Software software.