Nzira Yokutsanangurira Mutengo Kuwana Mubairo
Nhengo yepasi P / E inogona kunge ichiri kuita zvakanaka, kana inogona kunge isingakoshi.
Zvinokwanisika kuisa mari zvichienderana neP / E yemunhu mumwechete, asi vanhu vazhinji vanotarisa purogiramu yakazara yeP / E yemusika. Vanhu vazhinji vanoti misika yepamusoro inonyanya kukoshesa apo purogiramu yeP / E yemusika inopfuura pamusoro pevhareji. Chii chaicho chiyero? Pano pane mashomanana emakore akakwirira uye akakurumbira mumusika uyo achakupa humwe ruzivo rwezvakanaka, zvisingaiti, uye wepakati P / E ratios.
P / E Ratio Highs uye Lows yeS & P 500
Pamusoro peiyo internet / teknologi bubble yemakore ekuma1990, mushamba wekutengesa sekuenzaniswa neS & P 500 Index yaitengesa purogiramu yeP / E yepedyo kusvika makumi mana. Kusvika iye zvino, iyi ndeyo nguva yakareba yehuwandu hwechiyero.
Pasi pemagetsi ekutakura zvakanyanya, misika yemabhizimisi (S & P 500 Index) yakatengesa purogiramu yeP / E yepedyo kusvika 7.
Ivhareji P / E chiyero chemusika inenge 14.
Nhepfenyuro Inowirirana Inoshandisa Kushandisa P / E Ratio
AP / E chiyero che40 chakakosha zvikuru, chikamu cheP / E che7 chinoderera chaizvo, uye chiyero che14 chinomirire muvhareji kupfuura nhoroondo yezvino.
Uine ruzivo urwu, unogona kutarisa chikamu chezvino cheP / E chemusika wekutengesa uye uone kuti zvinhu zvakabatana nei zvakaitika kare.
Chinhu chinokosha chokuyeuka ndechokuti hapana mutemo wakatarwa unogona kushandisa. Iwe unofanirwa kushandisa pfungwa imwechete uye funga pamusoro pezviri kuitika munyika.
Somuenzaniso, kana hupfumi huri mumatambudziko emari yekuwana mari inogona kuipa kudarika zvakatarirwa. Izvi zvinoderedza vatarisiri vemari, uye nhamba dzematengo dzichaderera. Kunyange kana mutengesi unoratidzika sechinhu chakakosheswa pachikamu cheP / E che14, nguva dzakaipa dzinogona kuita kuti misika idzoke kuti ienderere mberi nekuderera pasi nehuwandu hweP / E huri pasi.
Kune rumwe rutivi, munguva yekuwedzera kwehupfumi, kubhadharwa kwekambani kunogona kuramba kuchikwira, uye mutengo wematengo unogona kuramba uchikwira kwemakore mazhinji mushure. AP / E chikamu che16, kana kunyange makumi maviri, hachirevi kuti misika yakanyanya kupfuura. Mukutanga kwema90, vakawanda vaifunga kuti misika yakakosha zvikuru zvichienderana neP / E ratios, uye naizvozvo vakashaya makore ekudzoka kukuru kubva muna 1994 - 1999.
Zvidzidzo Zvidzidzo Kubva Kare P / E Bubbles
Mukutanga kwema70, pakanga pane boka rezvikwata zvinonzi Nifty Fifty. Idzi idzi dzaive makumi mashanu emakambani makuru pane akanyorwa mumatengesi ezvokutengesa, uye masangano akatenga nzvimbo dzakakura dzemaoko avo. Sezvo nhamba dzematengo dzakasimuka, P / E ratios yemakambani aya akakura kusvika kumusoro kune 65-92. Kuparara kwemusika we 73/74 kwakauya, uye nekutanga kwema80, makambani aya akange ane P / E ratios 9-18.
Izvi zvinofanira kunge zvaive zvakajeka kuti hapana kambani inokunda inogona kuramba ichingowedzera mari yayo yakawanda nokukurumidza kuitira kuti inzwisise iyo iyo yehutano.
Chidzidzo chacho hachina kudzidza, zvakadaro, uye mamiriro ezvinhu akadzokorora pakupera kwema 90 ne tech techs. P / E ratios ye-tech inowanikwa nguva dzose inopfuura 100. Dzimwe makambani dzakanga dzisina purogiramu, asi, dzakarayira zvikwiriso zvakakwirira zvichienzaniswa nemamwe makambani akachengetedza.
Chidzidzo chinofanira kudzidzwa: zvisina kukwirira zvakakwirira P / E ratios, pamwe chete nemitambo yakanyanyisa, inogona kuva chiratidzo chokuti misika yakanyanyisa uye kuenzanirana kunofanira kuderedzwa. Abnormally low P / E ratios, pamwe chete nemisoro yakashata, inogona kuva chiratidzo chokuti mutengo wekutengesa unogona "kuiswa."