Historical Market Inogumbusa
Kune avo vakwegura zvakakwana kuti vayeuke, muma1970 misika yakaderera 48% kupfuura mwedzi 19 uye muma1930 yakaderera 86% pamwedzi 39.
Shamba redu rekupedzisira reUnited States rakaitika muna 2007-2009 apo mushamba wezvitoro wakaderera 57% kupfuura mwedzi 17. Chimwe chikamu chinozivikanwa chebhebhe yekutakura ndiJapan "Yakarasikirwa Makumi Makumi maviri" kubva muna 1998 kuti ipe apo maronda maitiro akaonekwa seakaderera 80%.
Kune varairidzi vanotengesa pasi pezvikwereti izvi, izvi zvakaderera nguva dzaive nemigumisiro yakaipa. Vashandi vanochengetedza nzvimbo dzakasiyana-siyana uye vakaramba vachirima mari kuitira kuti vaone kuti kubuda kwakatevera kwakasakuvadzwa. Kuramba uchifunga nezvekugara kwenguva refu chinhu chinokosha chaunofanira kuita apo uri pakati pemakethe yebere.
Gore Izvo Pashure Pekutengeswa Kwebhizimisi Ndiyo Bhoom
Mumakore makumi mapfumbamwe kubva muna 1934 kusvika muna 2014, sezvakaenzaniswa negore rekarenda, S & P 500 stock index yakatambura kurasikirwa kwese kwekudzoka kwevanenge makumi maviri muzana mumakore mana akasiyana, yakanyanya kuitika muna 2008 ya 37.0% inopera. Mugore raitevera zvitatu zvekare zvakapfuura 20% +, nhamba yacho yakawana muvhareji we + 32%. Iwe unofanirwa kugara uchingotengeswa mumusika panguva dzekunonoka kuti uite chikamu pakuwana.
Pasinei Nekutakura Makamba, Zvimwe Zvakanaka Kupfuura Zvakaipa Zvapfuura
Heino kupatsanurwa pakati pe "up" uye "pasi" nguva nguva ye S & P 500:
- Mazuva: 53% "kumusoro" uye 47% "pasi."
- Mwedzi: 58% kumusoro, 42% pasi
- Makota: 63% kumusoro, 37% pasi
- Makore: 72% kumusoro, 28% pasi
- Nguva Yegore 5 Yekutora Nguva: 76% kumusoro, 24% pasi
- 10 Year Rolling Time Periods: 88% kumusoro, 12% pasi
Kudzoka Kubva kuBlack Market
Misika yemabhiza inotevera misika yebhebhe. Pakave nemakondohwe gumi nematanhatu (anotsanangurwa sekuwedzera kwe20% kana kupfuura mumatengo ematengo) kubvira muna 1930. Kunyange zvazvo misika yemombe yakawanzogara kwemakore akawanda, chikamu chikuru chekuwana kwave kuchiwedzera mumwedzi yekutanga nzara yemari yemakambani.
Somuenzaniso mushure mokunge S & P 500 ichidzika pasi pa 777 musi wa10/09/02 mushure mekutengeswa kwemisika yebhebhe yegore re2 ½, nhamba yezvikwata yakawana + 15.2% (kubhadhara zvachose) pamusoro pemwedzi mitanhatu inotevera. Vashandi vanotizira kune mari mumisika yebhebhe vanofanira kuchengeta mupfungwa ingangodhura mari yekushayikwa matanho ekutanga ekutengesa kwemisika, izvo zvakamboitika zvakapa huwandu huwandu hwekudzoka panguva imwe neimwe inotengeswa.
Imwe muenzaniso, mushure mekuderera ne40% mu2008, S & P 500 yakaramba ichidonhera kusvikira yakadzika pa 683 musi waMarch 9, 2009. Kubvira ipapo yakatanga kukwira kunoshamisa, kukwira kupfuura 100% mumwedzi 48 inotevera. Nenzira, misika mitsva haigoni kuzivikanwa kusvikira mutengo wemashesi watove wawedzera 20%. Vashandi vanogona kutama zvachose kunze kwematokari pamusika wemakumbo yebhebhe vanoderera vangave vachida kudzokerazve kufunga nezvechiito ichocho, sekuedza nguva yakakodzera kutanga kweimwe mushamba wemombe inogona kuva yakaoma.
Kuzviisa Pakati Pematengesi Ekutakura
Kana uine mari, uchitarisa kutenga mikana panguva yekutengeswa kwebhebhu. Nhoroondo yekutaura, S & P 500 Mutengo kune Zororo Ratio (P / E) yave ichinyatsove yakaderera panguva yemisika yebhebhe. Apo varairi vanyanyova nechivimbo, purogiramu yeP / E inowanzoita kuti kuwedzerwa kutengesa zvikwata kuwedzere. Vashandi vezvemabhizimisi VANHU VANODA kutakura misika nokuti mitengo yekutengesa inonzi "inotengeswa."
Sokutonga kwechigunwe, shandisa mari yako yekusimwa maererano nekutarisana kwako kwengozi nekudzokorora zvakare kuitira kuti utenge pasi uye kutengesa zvakakwirira. Usambofa uchera zvipo pamakoshesi ekurega mari panguva dzepasi pamisika. Mukufamba kwenguva, iwe uchabatsirwa nokutenga zvikamu zvitsva pamitengo yakaderera uye uchawana muchero wakaderera wekutenga mutengo.
Kana iwe uri mukutora basa, chete chikamu chemari yako chausingadi kuti uve nemamwe makore mashanu kusvika gumi anofanira kunge ari mumatanda.
Iyi nzira yekugovera mari maererano neunenge uchida iyo inonzi nguva yekugadzirisa . Iwe unoda hurongwa hwekurega basa hunokubvumira kuti ugare wakasununguka uye usingafaniri kufunganya nezvezuva nezuva, pamwedzi, kana kunyange pamusika pamisika yegyrations.
> (Statistical references kubva kuBTN Research uye Fidelity Investments.)