Dzidzo Pamakore Okusarudza uye Kudzoka Kwemakero
Tafura iri pasi peji rinoratidza kudzoka kweS & P 500 Index mugore rimwe nerimwe remasarudzo kubva muna 1928. Pakuona, iwe unogona kuona iyo yekusarudzwa kwemakore makumi maviri nemashanu ekupedzisira kwakange iine makore matatu chete iyo S & P 500 index yaiva kudzoka kusina kunaka panguva yesarudzo gore.
Marshall D. Nickles, EdD, akawedzerwa pane iyi dhesi mune pepa rinonzi Presidential Elections uye Stock Market Cycles. Tsvakurudzo yake yakajeka inoratidza kuti urongwa hunobatsira huchave hwokutsvaga musi waOctober 1 wegore rechipiri wekutonga kwegore rekutungamira uye kutengesa musi waDecember 31 wegore mana. Mushure mokuisa ruzivo rwekusimbisa urongwa uhwu, anoenderera mberi achiti:
"Zvisinei, apo paunofunga kuti wakazvifungisisa zvose, unowana imwe nzira inogona kuratidza mikana yakasiyana. Semuenzaniso, imwe tsananguro inoratidza chiitiko chinonakidza zvikuru chichiitika mumusika wekambani. Munguva yezana remakore rechimakumi maviri nerimwe remakore gumi nemakore rakapera mu "5" (1905, 1915, 1925, etc.) rakabatsira! "
Iro pfungwa yaari kuita ndiyo imwechete iyo imwe nzvimbo yekudzidza yakadana maitiro ekubhadhara mari yakatitaurira kazhinji; tinogona kuona maitiro, asi izvozvo hazvirevi kuti zvakakosha kune zvisarudzo zvatinozoita.
Mune chidzidzo chakafanana naMarshall's, Wells Fargo's Chief Investment Officer, Dean A. Junkans, CFA, uye Mutariri wavo Mukuru Wekutsvaga, James P. Estes, PhD, CFP (1) inoratidza kuti mushambadzi wepamusika unodzoka mugore rechina remutungamiri wenyika shoko rinoreva kaviri iyo yekudzoka mugore rokutanga remutungamiri wegore.
Iyi iyi data inobatsira here? Chero kana muenzaniso uchienderera mberi.
Kana uri kutarisira muenzaniso, wadii kuedza Super Bowl Stock Market Predictor. Inoti "Kana boka iro rinokunda Super Bowl rine midzi yayo yekutanga yeNational Football League, misika ichawedzera.Kana boka rakakunda raive raibva kuAmerica Football League, mutengesi uchaterera."
Iwe Unofanirwa Kuita Zvisarudzo zvichienderana Negore Rokusarudzwa KweMakwenzi Misika?
Ngatiti iwe waibhadhara mutengesi wekutsinhanisa uyo aiziva nezveongororo iri pamusoro apa. Vanokuratidza kudzoka kwakakosha kwaungadai wakamboona mumakore makumi maviri akapfuura dai wakanga wapinda mumusika wekutengeswa mumakore akazotevera emutungamiri wehurumende uye wakabuda mukati memakore ekutanga.
Zvichida, zano rezano iri iri rinonzwisisika. Iwe unogona kunge wakave wakatarisira kuti muna 2008, mutengo unofanira kuva kaviri kudzoka kwawakaita muna 2005. (Muna 2005 S & P 500 Index yakadzoka 4.90%.)
Munguva yegore ra2008 pakasarudzwa, kana iwe wakapa mari musi waOctober 1, 2006 kusvika munaDecember 31, 2008, mari yako inenge yakaderera ne6,8%.
Nzira yacho haina kushandiswa pakusarudzwa kwesarudzo muna 2008. Inoratidzika se 2016 yakave yakanaka kunyange zvakadaro! Gumiguru 1, 2015, kuburikidza negore regore ra2016, rakasunungurwa kuti ridzose simba rakadzoka.
Chii chakachengeterwa 2020? Kufungidzira kwako kwakafanana neyangu.
Dambudziko rekutsvaga mari zvichienderana nemitemo yakadaro yedzira: haisi nzira yakanaka yekuita nezvekuita zvisarudzo zvekutsvaga. Zvinonzwika zvinonakidza, uye zvinozadzisa kutenda kwakadzika kwekuti vanhu vazhinji vane kuti kune nzira yeku "kurova mushamba", uye mumwe kunze uko anoziva nzira yekuzviita.
Kana iwe hausi iwe, zvingave zviri nani kuisa mari inofadza, iyo yakachengetedza, iyo inosanganisira kunzwisisa njodzi nekudzoka , kusiyanisa, nekutsvaga mari shoma yekuenzanisa mari kuti ive yako kwenguva refu, zvisinei kuti ndiani anokunda sarudzo. Kana sekuda kwekuda mari inodaro, "Kuisa mari kunofanirwa kufanana nekuona pende yakaoma kana kutarisa uswa hukura. Kana iwe uchida kufara ... enda kuLas Vegas. "-Paul Samuelson
(1) Kusarudzwa uye Musika: Zvakabatana Here? Yakabudiswa naOctober 18, 2007, mu Wells Fargo Quick Market Update.
Yakanyorwa naDean A. Junkans, CFA, Chief Investment Officer naJames P Estes, Ph.D., CFP, Senior Investment Manager.
Musarudzo Gore Rokutengeserana Kwemari Inodzoka
Pamusana wemasarudzo gore gore rinodzoka denga kubva muna 1900 ona PDF yakakanganwa yakaiswa pamwe neMFS® Investment Management inonzi Primaries, caucuses, uye sarudzo ... oh , my !.
Tafura iri pasi apa inoratidza kudzokera kwemusika kwegore negore rekusarudzwa kubva muna 1928
Dhina iri pasi inobva kuDynamension Funds Matrix Book.
| S & P 500 Market Market Inodzorera Pakati Pemakore Echisarudzo | ||
| Gore | Dzokera | Vadzidzi |
| 1928 | 43.6% | Hoover vs. Smith |
| 1932 | -8.2% | Roosevelt vs. Hoover |
| 1936 | 33.9% | Roosevelt vs. Landon |
| 1940 | -9.8% | Roosevelt vs. Willkie |
| 1944 | 19.7% | Roosevelt vs. Dewey |
| 1948 | 5.5% | Truman vs. Dewey |
| 1952 | 18.4% | Eisenhower vs. Stevenson |
| 1956 | 6.6% | Eisenhower vs. Stevenson |
| 1960 | .50% | Kennedy vs. Nixon |
| 1964 | 16.5% | Johnson vs. Goldwater |
| 1968 | 11.1% | Nixon vs. Humphrey |
| 1972 | 19.0% | Nixon vs. McGovern |
| 1976 | 23.8% | Carter vs. Ford |
| 1980 | 32.4% | Reagan vs. Carter |
| 1984 | 6.3% | Reagan vs. Mondale |
| 1988 | 16.8% | Bush vs. Dukakis |
| 1992 | 7.6% | Clinton vs. Bush |
| 1996 | 23% | Clinton vs. Dole |
| 2000 | -9.1% | Bush vs. Gore |
| 2004 | 10.9% | Bush Bush vs. Kerry |
| 2008 | -37% | Obama vs. McCain |
| 2012 | 16% | Obama vs. Romney |
| 2016 | ++ | Trump vs. Clinton |
| 2020 | ? | ? |