Kudzoka kwekare kunogona kunyengedza kunze kwekunge iwe uchiziva kududzira kwavo. Kuwanda kwekutsvaga kwekutsvaga kwemari kunotsanangurwa nenzira yekudzoka gore negore kana kushandiswa kwepakati pegore .
Semuenzaniso, kana mari yekutsvaga ichitaura kuti gore rapera yaive nekudzoka kwegore rimwechete ye9% iyo inowanzoreva kana iwe wakapa mari musi waJanuary 1, uye wakatengesa iwe wekutsvaga musi waDecember 31, uye iwe wakagamuchira 9% kudzoka.
Kana kudyara kunotaura kuti kwaive ne 8% yegore kudzoka kwemakore gumi, izvi zvinoreva kana iwe wakabhadhara musi waJanuary 1, uye wakatengesa iwe mari yako musi waDecember 31 makore gumi gare gare, wakagamuchira zvakaenzana ne8% pagore.
Zvisinei, mumakore iwayo gumi, rimwe gore iyo inotora mari inogona kunge yakwira kusvika 20% uye imwe gore ingangodaro yakaderera 10%. Paunenge uchienzanisa pamwe chete nemakore gumi, iwe wakagamuchira "wastani wegore" wekudzoka kwe8%.
Dambudziko Rokushandisa Avhareji Kudzoka
Ichi chiyero chekudzoka chakafanana nekureva kuti iwe wakafamba rwendo uye wakapera 50 mph. Iwe unoziva kuti iwe hauna kufamba chaizvo 50 mph nguva yose. Dzimwe nguva waifamba uchikurumidza zvikuru; dzimwe nguva waifamba uchifamba zvishoma.
Nassim Taleb, mubhuku rake rinonzi Black Swan (Penguin, 2008), ane chikamu chinonzi "Usayambuka rwizi kana (paavhareji) mamita mana akadzika." Ndizvo zvakakodzera kufungisisa. Nyaya dzakawanda dzezvemari dzinoshandisa zvikamu. Ikoko hapana chivimbiso chokuti mari yako ichaita kuti pave nekusvika.
Kuratidzira ndiko kusiyanisa kwekudzoka kubva kune avo vakaenzana. Semuenzaniso, kubva muna 1926 kusvika ku555, misika yemabhizimisi emabhiza inodzoka , sekuenzaniswa neS & P 500 Index, yakaenzana 10% pagore.
Asi iyo yakawandisa yakapoteredza makore kwaive pasi pe 43.3% (1931) uye kusvika 54% (1933), pamwe nemakore akawanda apfuura sa2008 apo yakange iri pasi 37%, uye muna 2009 apo yakakwira 26.5% *.
Izvi zvakasiyana-siyana zvinodzoka kubva pachireji zvinoratidzira sekuenzanisa ngozi . Iwe unogona kuronga chimwe chiitiko zvichienderana nekutarisirwa kwekudzokorora kwekudzoka asi unotarisana nemugumisiro wakasiyana zvachose nekuda kwekusagadzikana kwezvakadzoka zvakadzoka zvakaitwa.
Kudzokorora Kudzorera Ipai Mamwe Maonero Akajeka
Kuronga kudzoka kunopa nzira yakanyatsojeka yekutarisa kudzokera kwekutsvaga. Gore regumi rekudzoka rinokuratidzai makore gumi nemakore uye gumi zvakanyanya kupfuura mamwe makore gumi zvaungangodaro wakaona kuburikidza nokutarisa makore gumi egore risati rangotanga neJanuary, asi zvakare kutanga February 1, March 1, Kubvumbi 1, nezvimwe.
Izvo zvekutsvaga kwemari yakave negore gumi yemasvomereji yegore rekudzoka kwe8% inogona kunge yakanakisisa yegore gumi yekudzoka kudzoka kwe16% uye yakaipisisa makore gumi ekudzoka kwekudzoka kwe -3%. Kana iwe uchiri kurega, izvo zvinoreva zvichienderana nemakore gumi iwe wapera basa iwe iwe ungadai wakawana ruzivo rwe16% pagore pamapforeti yako kana 3% pagore rinorasikirwa. Kudzoka kwekudzoka kunokupa mamwe maonero chaiwo ezvo zvingaitika zvechokwadi kumari yako, zvichienderana nemakore gumi anowanikwa iwe.
Kushandisa kugadzirisa kudzoka kungaita sekutaura kuti kupfuura rwendo rurefu, zvichienderana nemamiriro ekunze, iwe unogona kuvhara 45 mph, kana kuti unogona kuenzana 65 mph.
Ndine graphed yapfuura kubvumira kudzoka kwezvikwata zvakasiyana-siyana zvemasikisi uye nhengo dzezvisungo kuratidza kuti zvakasiyana sei nguva dzinooneka kana dzienzaniswa nenguva dzakaipisisa. Vose venguva refu varairimi vanofanira kuona maitiro ekudzoka musati vasarudza kudzokera kutarisira pamagadziro avo ekurega mari.
Kana iwe ukashandisa paIndaneti kubhadharwa chekushandisa uye uchifunga kuti unogona kuwana mhinduro inopfuura yakanyanya kudarika izvo zvingangodaro zvichitora zvinogona kusiya mari yako yekusarura mumatambudziko. Zvakanakisisa kuronga kune yakaipisisa uye kuguma kusvika pane chimwe chinhu chiri nani pane kuti uve nepurogiramu inoshanda chete kana iwe ukawana pamusoro pemigumisiro yemigumisiro. Iwe hauna kuvimbiswa chete nemamiriro okunze akanaka pakubhadhara.
> * Kudzorera kusvibiswa kubva kuD Dimensional Fund Advisors, Matrix Book 2016 p. 14-15.