Sezvo Velocity yeMari Plummets, Inofanirwa Kudzorera Ndeyo Nzira
Kuwanda kwemabasa kunoudza zvinhu zvakawanda pamusoro pehutano uye hutungamiri hutungamiri rwerudzi. Utano hwakanaka hunowanzova nehupamhi hwepamusoro, asi huwandu hunopera hwebasa hunowanzoratidza kuti nyika inotonhora, kana kutosvika pakuderera.
Semuenzaniso, imwe dollar inogona kushandiswa, (uye inoshandiswazve zvakare, uyezve, uyezve ...), kakawanda munguva imwe chete, iyo inomiririra kukurumidza. Zvichida, rimwe rega rega raigona kungogara mubhengi rebhengi reumwe munhu kana mwedzi kune imwe nguva panguva (iyo inenge iri yakanyanya kuderera).
Kana mutengi achibhadhara pane imwe resitorendi, ipapo muridzi wekugadzira anoshandisa iyo dollar kutenga mabhizimusi kubva kune printer, ipapo mupiritori anotenga dzimwe mbatya, iyo inomirira velocity yevatatu (restaurant yevashandi-kune-muridzi, muridzi-to-printer, printer -to-chikafu chechikafu). Chero nguva ipi zvayo inogona kushandiswa kutarisa kutengesa pamusoro penguva ipi (masvondo, mwedzi mitanhatu, makore akawanda), asi nguva yakajairika ndeye gore rakazara.
Nenzira iyo, kana iwe uchinzwa kuwedzera kwema 11, iwe unogona kufunga kuti pavhareji dollar imwe iri kushandiswa nguva 11 sezvo ichipfuura kuburikidza nehupfumi, kupfuura gore rose. Iwe unogona nyore nyore kutarisa data yezvino uye yezvino pfupi pane imwe nzvimbo yepaIndaneti yeSt. Louis Federal Reserve.
Pachivako ichocho, unogona kuona kukurumidza kweM1 Money Stock, uyewo M2 Money Stock. Iyo yekare ndiyo mitemo iri nani yekushandisa pakutsvaga velocity, sezvo inomiririra chaiyo yemari yemari; mari; mari; checker's checks; chikumbiro chinowedzera. Iko kushandiswa kweM1 kunogona nyore uye nokukurumidza kuchinjwa kuva chimwe chinhu chaunogona kubata muruoko rwako kana zvichidikanwa.
Kune rumwe rutivi, M2 metric inosanganisira zvinhu zvakachengetwa mari, mari shoma yemari, uye mari yemari yemari pamwe chete. Kuti upedze imwe yeM2 Money Stock, iwe kazhinji unotanga kutanga uchida kuchinja imwe yacho kuva imwe yemhando yeM1 yemari.
Kurasikirwa kwevelocity kunoreva nyaya shomanana. Inoratidza kuti vanhu vari kubatisisa mari yavo kwenguva refu vasati vashandise, kana vari kusarudza kuponesa kana kubhadhara chikwereti, pane kushandisa mari yacho.
Mune zvimwe zviitiko, zvinogona kukwikwidzana kuti kuregerera kwemari kwemari kunoratidza kuti vatengi vari kunyanya kunetseka pamusoro pehupfumi, kana kuti vasina tariro, kana kuti kunyange kutarisana nenguva dzakaoma dzakawanda kubva mune zvemari. Izvi, zvakare, zvinoita kuti vave ivo vanonzwisisa kana kuti vakangwarira nevanowanzoshandisa kutenga.
Iyi mamiriro ezvinhu anoratidzawo hurumende nemasisheni vachave vachiona zvishoma kudhura mutero wemari, iyo inowanzowanikwa kuburikidza nekutenga vatengi. Sezvo velocity inowira, inonyeverawo nezvehupfumi hwenhepfenyuro, kana imwe inotonhora.
Muzhinji, mabasa epamusoro akakwirira akakwirira (kubva pakuona chero ipi zvayo uye yose mitemo inoshandiswa kuongorora hupfumi). Izvo mari yakawanda inopfuura nguva, uye kunyanya basa rekuita, iyo (inoretically) yakasimbisa nyika iri pasi kubva mune zvemari.
Zvisinei, kunyanya kukosha kudarika nhamba chaiyo, ndiyo kukurumidza uye kutungamirirwa kwechinangwa chipi zvacho. Chimbofunga kuti kutengesa kwemari kwainge kwasvika pa10,68 mubato rechina ra2007, nguva pfupi kusati kwasangana nematambudziko ekubhadhara mari.
Kubvira panguva iyoyo, kukosha kwave kuri mukusununguka-kuwa, munguva ichangopfuura kuparadza 5.65. Izvo zvave ikozvino zvakabvisa icho chave chichikwirira, chichiramba chiripo, nechigumisiro chekupedzisira sezvo kuti kasiro yakatemwa hafu, isina kunyange nguva pfupi yekuti awanezve.
Sezvambotaurwa pamusoro apa, 5.65 vanokoshesa nyaya, asi kwete zvakaenzana nekukurumidza kwechidonho. Hungu, basa rose rezvemari (sezvinoyerwa nekutengesa kwemari) inenge hafu yezvaiwanzove-asi, kuona kuti kukosha kwechidimbu zvakasimba uye zvakaderedza pasi zvichida kune zvimwe zvinokosha.
Semuenzaniso, kana shanduko ichikurumidza kukurumidza kusvika kumucheto, iyo inowanzobatanidzwa nepamusoro-soro yemagetsi.
Mabhizimisi anoita zviri nani, kutengesa kunowedzera, uye zvizhinji zvehupfumi zvinobatsira kuti sangano rose rikure.
Kune rumwe rutivi, kana kuchinja ikoko kuchikurumidza kusvika kune zvakaderera (sezvazvakange zviri mumamiriro edu ezvinhu zvinotaurwa pamusoro apa), zvinosvika, kana kuwedzera zvinhu zvose zvinogona kuva zvakaipa kune zvehupfumi. Izvozvo zvingava chinhu chiduku zvikuru chatinofanira kuita chemetric inogadziriswa kuti tiratidze hutano hwenyika.
Kupera nokukurumidza muvelocity kunogona kureva mari shoma yehurumende, iyo inosvika nokukurumidza zvokuti masunharaunda neDhipatimendi masangano vasati vagadzirira, kana kuti havana nguva yakakwana yekugadzirisa kana kugadzirisa kune zvisizvo zvitsva. Izvi ndizvo zvinorevawo kuti sevatengi vanopedza zvishoma kana kupfuura, vachinyanya kutarisana nenguva dzakaoma; kuderedza kutengesa; kutenga kusanganiswa kunoshandiswa kunotsika mutengo zvinhu; kubvongodza zvinyorwa zvesoldold; kutengesa uye kutengesa zvinhu zvakanyanya kudiwa.
Chigumisiro chekupedzisira ndechekuti mabhizimisi maduku (uye kunyange mabhizimusi makuru, sechinhu chaicho) kuona ruzivo rwemiganhu rwuri kupera. Kana vaiwanzotengesa zvinhu 10 kuti vawane $ 50 kuti vawane $ 4 purogiramu pane imwe neimwe, iye zvino vatengesa zvinhu 6 bedzi ne $ 35, uye vanongoda $ 1 pfuma pane imwe neimwe.
Mabhizimusi anowanzotarisana nekuderera kwepamusoro kwemari yakapiwa nguva yakakwana. Zvisinei, vane dambudziko rakanyanya rakawanda rekufambira zvakanaka kana kuparara uku kuri kukurumidza.
Icho chairo chaicho mumatare takaona kubvira pakakwirira kusvika muna 2007 chakanga chisati chave chichirumbira. Kuderera kunokurumidza kunogona kuedza hutano uye kugutsikana kwezvinenge zvese zvemabhizimisi mashoma eMamerica.
Zvechokwadi, mumabhizimisi anopindura achaita zvavanogara vachiita. Kunze kwekuwana nzira dzakasiyana-siyana dzokuchengetedza mari, vachabvisa vashandi. Mune mamwe mazwi, vachapedza zvishoma, uye vachabhadhara zvishoma.
Izvi zvinoguma kune vanhu vasina basa, avo vanozofanira kuchengetedza mari, kana kuti vashoma kuti vashandise. Izvozvo, zvakare, zvinowedzera kune utsinye-kurambidzwa kwevelocity yemari kunoratidzika sekunowedzera kuderera.
Kuti tifambe munzira yose kusvika kumugumo wenyaya iyi, inoguma nehuwandu hwepasi pose. Zvechokwadi, hakuna chinhu chinonyatsotarisirwa kune chero upi zvake hwekudarika kupfuura kudonha kwechimbichimbi mubasa rezvemari, sezvinoratidzwa nevelocity value.
Ikoko kunewo rumwe rutivi rwekufungidzira kwekuku-uye-yai. Zvichida velocity inopera mukupindurwa kwekupinda munguva yekuderedza mari. Icho chikonzero kana chiratidzo.
Zvakanaka, chokwadi chinosuruvarisa ndechokuti kushaya simba kwehupfumi nekuderedza velocity kazhinji kunowirirana. Izvo zvakanyatsopindirana zvokuti kazhinji zvinenge zvisingakwanisi kuparadzanisa kuti simba repi kana kuti chiitiko chiri kukonzera imwe.
Pakupera kwezuva, zvinonyanya kukosha here? Kunyange zvazvo zvingava zvinonakidza kuziva nguva uye kuti sei wakabata hutano kana chirwere, hachichinje chirwere nenzira ipi zvayo.
Zvimwe ruzivo runogona kukubatsira kuti usapora kurwara panguva inotevera, asi zvichida kwete. Chero nzira, unoziva kuti iwe uchabata firiza nguva nenguva.
Izvi hazvisi zvakasiyana nemashandisirwo mumhepo inowedzera. Ikoko kuchava nekuwedzera uye kuderera kwemazuva, izvozvi iwe watoziva. Chinonyanya kukosha chaicho ndechokuziva nezvekukurumidza kwemari, tarisa huno huno huripo, uye gadzirira kugadzirisa chero zvipi zvacho zvinoshamisa. Mhando yakafanana neyakakoshesa yakajeka yatakanga tatarisa munguva pfupi yapfuura!