Zvatinogona Kudzidza Kubva Zvidzidzo muna 1994
Mutengo wacho wakanga uri .50 pakupera kwe 2016 uye wakatanga kubuda kubva ipapo kusvika pa125 muzana muna 2017. The Federal Reserve yakaratidza kuti yaizobvisa chikwereti zvakare kusvika ku55 muzana muna 2017, asi izvo zvakanga zvisati zvaitika sekutanga Mbudzi.
IFed yakataura zvakare kuti tinogona kutarisira chiyero che 2 muzana muna 2018 uye zvakanyanya se3 muzana panguva iyo 2019 inosvika.
Kunyange zvazvo nguva chaiyo isingazivikanwi, chimwe chinhu chinonyatsoziva: Fed icharamba ichisimudza mitero pane dzimwe nzvimbo dzimwe nguva munguva yemberi. Bondanari vatengesi vachasangana nematambudziko matsva sezvo izvi zvinoitika: kukwanisa kwekutengesa mutengo mune mari shoma yenguva yezvisungo .
The Old Environment
Izvi zvinomiririra shanduko inokosha kubva kumamiriro ezvinhu akange aripo kutanga kubva muna 2008 matambudziko emari uye pfupi pashure pacho. Kuderera kwakaderera kweaidyidzana mari yepamusoro panguva iyoyo-uye ruzivo rwevateresi kuti maitirwo aizoramba ari pasi pemakore akawanda emakore-anobvumira zvidzitiro zvenguva pfupi kuti ape kudzorera kwakasimba kunyange panguva yekutengeswa kwemusika kwebato ra2013.
Gore rekarenda rinodzokera kuVanguard Short-Term Bond ETF (BSV) kubva panguva ya2008 kusvika muna 2013 yakaderera kubva pa8,5 muzana muna 2008 kusvika kusvika pa15 muzana muna 2013.
Izvi zvinodzoka hazvishamisi, asi zvakanyatsozadzisa varairidzi 'zvinotarisirwa kuti vaite zvakasimba nekuderera kusinganzwisisiki. Sezvo Sotanga inotanga kusimudza mitero zvakare, zvakadaro, mamiriro ekukwereta kwenguva pfupi angave asina kunyatsonaka, zvichienderana nekukwirira kwavanoenda. Asi ingangove yakaipa sei?
Zvidzidzo muna 1994
Ikozvino maitiro ehurumende yehutano hwemashamba yekushambadzira ndeye 1994 apo Barclays Aggregate Bond Index yakawa 2.92 muzana- kudzoka kwayo kwakanyanya mumakore 34 akapfuura . Chikonzero chekuputsika uku ndechekusarudza kweFed kukwidziridza chikwata chekudarika zvakashata kubva pa3 muzana pakutanga kwegore kusvika ku5,5 kubva pamagumo egore. Izvi zvinosanganisira nhanho dzitanhatu, dzinosanganisira katatu-nhanho dzinofamba, mbiri yehafu yenhokwe inowedzera, uye imwe nhatu-nendima yekutenderera yekuvhara kunze kwekugadzirira musi waNovember 15.
Izvi zvaimiririra hurongwa hunoshamisa hwekutsvaga vatengesi kubva kune varindi uye pakupedzisira hwakabatanidzwa mukudengenyeka mumitengo yezvinhu zvakakomberedzwa zvakagadzirwa nemamwe mari pamwe chete nevamwe vashandi vakuru. Kurasikirwa mune zviwanikwa izvi ndizvo zvakakonzera kuchema kweAllow Country kudarika muna December 1994.
Kune vashandi vemari, bhizimusi-kutengeserana kusagadziriswa kwakaitwa nenzira yekurasikirwa kukuru mubhadha mari . Zvichida zvakashamisa zvikuru ndezvakaipa zvekubhadhara mari yenguva pfupi . Vashandi vanogara vane mari shoma yenguva yezvisungo semotokari isina ngozi yekuchengetedza gurukota ravo, naizvozvo kurasikirwa mune chikamu ichi kunowedzera kushungurudza kudarika kuderera kwezvikwereti zvakadai semari inoshandiswa apo kusagadzikana kunogona kutarisirwa.
The Wall St. Journal yakarondedzera zvinotevera mumusi waFebruary 1, 2010, nyaya Yenguva Pfupi Bonds Carry Risk Kana Mutengo Wauya :
"Muna 1994, apo Fed yakatanga kushungurudzwa kwakawanda kwehuwandu hwekuwedzera, mamwe zana zana (120) akatambura (kalendari) yechina kurasikirwa kukwira 2%. Vazhinji vavo vaiva mari yemunisheni-bhandi yakagadziriswa nekushungurudzwa kweAllow County, Calif. "
Kusiyana, mari yekugadzira zvemari Cambridge Connection LLC yakashuma kuti:
"Muna 1994 ... kuwedzera kwemahombekombe emadhora emakore mashomanana vakaona kudonha kwe475 muzana pamusana we ((net assets value) yemari yenguva pfupi yezvisungo. Kune vanhu vazhinji, izvi zvaireva kurashikirwa kwemari yavakanga vasina kugadzirira kutambura. "
Sei zvibvumirano zvenguva pfupi zvakakunda zvakanyanya muna 1994, asi kwete muna 2013? Mhinduro yacho ndeyokuti Fed inotarisirwa ndiyo inonyanya kukosha kutengesa kwemashure emakore mashoma, zvichireva kuti inowanzoita zvakanyanya nani kudarika chikwereti kwenguva refu apo Fed inotarisirwa kuchengeta mitengo yakaderera sezvakaitika muna 2013.
Kusiyana neizvi, hutsinye hutsinye hweFed muna 1994 hwakagadzirisa danho rekurasikirwa kukuru munguva shoma yezvisungo zvemari.
Zvingaitika Muna 1994 Zvichiitikazve Here?
Mune dzimwe nzira, zvidzidzo zvegore ra1994 zvichiri zvinokosha nhasi. Apo varairidzi vanotanga kutarisa pane zvingaita zveHedhi yehuwandu hwemadhora, zvisungo zvenguva pfupi zvichange zvichitanga kusvika pakuwana zvishoma zvadzo uye-zvichienderana nerudzi rwechikwata-chikuru kukundikana kupfuura zvavaiva nazvo mumakore akapfuura. Pamwe pacho, izvi zvichava zvakanyanya kuitika kumusika sezvo chiyero chiri kuwedzera pamusoro pemakore maviri anotevera, kana chaizvoizvo zvinodaro.
Sezvo ataura izvi, kune zvikonzero zviviri zvinokosha nei vatyairi vasingafaniri kunetseka nezvekudzokorora kwa1994 sezvo Fed inotanga kusimudza mitero. Chokutanga, Fed inowedzera kutora telegraph inofambisa zvikuru uye inovimbika ikozvino kupfuura yakaita 20-uye makore akapfuura. Hazvigoneki kuti nhasi Fed inosarudza kuvhiringidza misika kuburikidza nechisimba, chishamiso chekuwedzera kunowedzera sezvakaitwa muna 1994.
Chechipiri, zvinogona kuitika zvezviwanikwa zvinowanikwa zvino kupfuura zvaive muna 1994 nekuda kwemitemo yakawanda yezvemari.
Zvose izvi zvinoratidza nguva yekudzoka kwemari yenguva pfupi, asi kwete rudzi rwekuderera kwakaitika muna 1994.
Mukana Unobatsira weMadhora Mafambi Makwendo
Izvozvo hazvizove zvakaipa zvose sezvo Fed inomutsa mazinga. Sezvo mari yakadyidzana mari inokwira, saizvozvo, ichava nezvibereko zvezvikamu zvenguva shoma mari. Asi ramba uchiyeuka kuti izvi hazviitike usiku hwose. Izvo zvinoitika zvishoma nezvishoma munguva yakawanda sekuti mari 'inobata mameneja akakurumbira uye emapatotikiti anovatsiva nematambudziko matsva, ekubvumira. Zvibereko zvakakwirira, zvakare, vanobvumira vashandi kuti vawane mari yakawanda kubva pamapatotioti avo. Zvibereko zvakakwirira zvinokonzerawo zvimwe zvekurasikirwa kunoitika muhutengo hwekutengeserana, izvo zvinogona kubatsira kugadzirisa kudzoka kwese .
The Bottom Line
Kurasikirwa kwekanguva pfupi mari yezvisungo hazvikwanise kuve kwakanyanya apo uye kana Fed ichisimudzira chikwereti chezvikwereti zvekare, uye inotonyanya kusakwanisa kufanana nevaya vakanyorerwa muna 1994. Zvisinei, zvinowanzoitawo kuti mari shoma yenguva yezvisungo vachava vasina kuvimbika mune zvekugona kwavo kuchengeta mari yenyu yakachengeteka kuenda mberi. Kana kuchengetedzwa kwekukurukurira iwe ndiyo inonyanya kukosha, inguva yekutanga kufunga pamusoro pezvimwe nzira .