Bond Bear Market Guide

Kunyange pasina munhu anoziva kuti ramangwana richaunza chii kana richiuya kumisika yezvemari, zvibereko zvishoma zvemazuva ano - uye kudiwa kweSouth Federal Reserve kutanga kuwedzera kuwedzerwa kwezvikwereti pane imwe nguva mune ramangwana risipo-rinoratidza kuti zvisungo dzakagadzirirwa kubhadhara kudzoka kwakaderera mumakore anotevera.

Kana makore mashanu kusvika gumi ari kutevera achinyanya kuunza nguva yepamusoro kusvika kune zvisungo zvekushambadzira mushambadziro, varimi vakawanda vachada kuwana nzira dzekudzivirira mapepafisi avo kubva pamagumisiro ekuderera.

Uine izvozvo mupfungwa, heino mhemberero shomanana yekupa ruzivo rwezvingave-uye zvisingaiti-zvinoshanda zvakanaka kana zvisungo zvinopinda mumusika webere.

Funga Nezvakawandisa Zvishoma, Dzivisa Zvikwereti Zvenguva refu

Kushanda kwenguva pfupi zvisungo hazvifadzi, uye hazvipi zvakawanda mune nzira yekukohwa. Kunyange zvakadaro, iyo inowanikwawo mari inoshandiswa zvisingatarisirwi iyo isingaoneki kurasikirwa kukuru mumusika webere. Kusiyana neizvi, zvisungo zvekugara kwenguva yakareba zvine mukana wepamusoro wehuwandu hwehuwandu hunopfurikidza nezvisungo zvenguva pfupi, izvo zvinoreva kuti kuwedzera kwezvikwereti zvinokwanisika kupedza zvigumisiro zvavanoita.

Chimbofunga izvi: Mukati kubva paMay 1 kusvika kuJuly 31, 2013, mushamba wezvisungo wakarohwa zvakaoma sezvo chibereko pamakore gumi-makore chakakwira kubva pa164 kusvika ku2,5%. (Ramba uchifunga, matengo uye zvibereko zvinotarisana nenzira dzakasiyana .) Munguva iyo nguva, Vanguard Long-Term Bond ETF (BLV) yakakundwa nekurasikirwa kwe10.1%, asi Vanguard Intermediate Term Bond ETF (BIV) yakaramba 5.0 %.

Munguva imwecheteyo, zvakadaro, Vanguard Short Term Bond ETF (BSV) yakangova 0.6% chete.

Izvi zvinobatsira kuenzanisira kuti kunyange zvisungo zvenguva pfupi hazvizoiti kuti iwe uwane mari mumusika webhebhu, ivo havakwanisi kutambura kurasikirwa kwakakura kudarika avo vanogara kwenguva yakareba. Ita zvinyorwa: kana uchida kugara wakachengeteka, gara uchitaura.

Dzivisa Pfuma Dzakakwirira

Hasi zvikamu zvose zvemashamba emabatanidzwa anoita nenzira imwechete kusvika kune imwechete yekushungurudza. Nokufamba kwenguva, somuenzaniso, makambani ane risimba rekukweretesa mari - seSvondo -gorosi rekambani nehupamhi hwehutano hwehutano - vakaratidza kukwanisa kupfurikidza apo nguva yakareba yezvibereko inowedzera. Pane chimwe chinhu chinogona kuitika, zvisinei: iyo inokurumidza kukohwa.

Kana izvo zvinotarisirwa kugadziriswa mumitengo yezvisungo zvinowira zvishoma nezvishoma pane imwe nguva yakareba, zvinonyanya kukosha kuti zvinhu izvi zvakasiyana zvinogona kubhadhara kunze kwepamusoro, zvichida, kune zvakakonzerwa nehuwandu hwezvibereko . Zvisinei, kana mushambadzi wechitengesi uchinge uchitengesa zvakanyanya-zvakadai sezvakaitika mumavambo makumi masere, 1994, uye chikamu chechipiri cha2013 - zvino nzvimbo idzi dzinogona kutambura zvakanyanya.

Vatengesi vanofanira, saka, vaswedere pamusika nehurongwa hwakakodzera chero mamiriro ezvinhu. Funga nezvemari munharaunda idzi, asi tsvaga izvo zvingasarudzwa zvinoshandiswa - kusanganisira nguva shoma-yepamusoro-kubhadhara mari , iyo inopa kubatanidzwa kwekukohwa kwakanaka uye kuderera kwehuwandu hwehuwandu hwemari , kana kuti chinangwa chekukura kwemari , iyo inodzivirirwa kusvika pamwero fixed fixed dates.

Zvakare, kuchiridza nemazvo - pane kutora ngozi yakawanda mukuedza kutora mitsva yakawedzerwa - ichava zita remutambo mumusika webhebhu.

Usapinda MuBond-Proxy Trap

Imwe nzira yakakurumbira yekuita munguva yemazinga akaderera yave kuri kutsvaga mikana muzvikwereti zvinokonzera chikamu uye mari yekushambadzira yakadai sezvikwata zvakasarudzwa nezvisungo zvekutengesa . Izvozvi zvikwereti zvakaita, chaizvoizvo, kuita zvakanaka kwazvo muna 2010-2012, asi usakanganise: izvo zvinonzi "hurumende yehutano" zvine ngozi yakawanda kudarika zvisungo, uye zvinogona kunge zvisingakwanisi panguva yekuwedzera kwemari. Kutaura zvazviri, izvi ndizvo chaizvo zvakaitika munguva yechipiri yegore ra2013 . Vashandi vanotarisa kunze kwemushambadzi wehutano hwemari havazowanikidzi kuchengetedzwa munzvimbo idzi.

Iyo yakanakisisa kubhadhara: usatora njodzi dzinobatanidzwa nemusika wekutengesa - kunyange mune-ingadai iri "mahara" masimari - kunze kwekuti iwe uine kubvumira kukurira nguva shoma shoma.

Dzidza zvakawanda pamusoro pezvinetso zvehutano hwehutano pano .

Zvitoro Zvine Zvokufunga nezvazvo

Vazhinji vatengesi vanosarudza mari yekutsvaga mari yavo yekudhura mari uye kuenzanisa, asi mushamba webere uye chikonzero chokufunga nezvekutsvaga kwekutsvaga:

Zvikwereti zveMunhu mumwechete zviri nani Pakati Pekubhadhara Mari muMusika Wepasi

Kusiyana nemari yezvisungo, humwe hutano hunoiswa zuva rakakura. Izvi zvinoreva kuti pasinei nokuti chii chinoitika mumusika wezvisungo, vatengesi vanovimbiswa kuti vagamuchire kudzoka kwevakuru kunze kwekuti mubhadhari akasafa pane chikwereti chake. Dhanieri Putnam wekuInvestorPlace anonyora mubhuku rake raAugust 2013, "Nzira Yakanakisisa Yokushandisa Muzvikwereti Panguva Yokurega,":

"Zvisungo zvemunhu mumwechete ... kupa zvinhu zviviri zvinokosha. Chokutanga, vatengesi vanosimbisa hutano hwepamusoro nehutsika huripo hwekusakwanisa vanokwanisa kuderedza kana kubvisa kukanganisa kukuru kunogona kuitika nebhadha mari. Kunyange kana zvibereko zvichikwira zvakasimba, vashandi vanogona kurara usiku vachiziva kuti kutengesa kwemusika hakuzoiti kutora mari yekugadzirisa mari yavo yakaoma. Chechipiri, kuwedzera kwemari kunogona kunyanya kushanda kuti vabatsire vatengesi mune humwe hutano nekuvabvumira kutenga zvakachengetedzeka zvakachengetedza sezvinoitwa mazviri zvino. Munzvimbo isina kunaka-kudzoka, kukosha kwezvinhu izvi zviviri hazvigoni kudarika. "

Ndiyo nzira yekufunga, asi iva wakagadzirira kuita nguva inofanirwa kuita tsvakurudzo yakakodzera.

The Bottom Line

Kunyange zvazvo mutengesi webere uye haisi chokwadi, zvinonzwisisika kuti matambudziko ehupenyu husina simba achadzoka kunze kwezvakaitika zvekudzoka kune rudzi rwekudzoka kwepamusoro-soro iro rakaratidza 2010-2012. Vashandi - kunyanya avo vari mukati kana pedyo nekumurega - saka, vanofanira kufunga nezvekudzivirira nzira dzavo dzekuchengetedza zvikwata zvavo kubva pane zvingava zvakaipisisa.

Zvinonzwisisika : Mashoko ari pawebsite ino anopa zvinangwa zvekukurukurirana chete, uye haafaniri kutorwa semazano ekutsvaga mari. Pasinei nemamiriro ezvinhu iyo ruzivo runomiririra hutungamiri kutenga kana kutengesa zvigumisiro. Nguva dzose taurirana nemudzidzisi wekutsvaga mari uye muteresi wezvemitero usati waita mari.