Dzvanya Pano Kuti Uone 2014 Outlook yeKubhadhara Zvikwereti Zvikwereti
Executive Summary
- Izvo zvakakosha zvekambani nehupamhi hwehutano hunosara huri munzvimbo iyo patinotamira muna 2013, asi hupfumi uye "mari yepamusoro" zvinoshandiswa zvinokosha.
- Zvibereko zvakaderera zvakakwana, asi mumitemo yezvakaitika maererano neUnited States Treasury.
- Kunyange zvazvo makampani uye zvibereko zvakakwirira zvinogona kuramba zvichiita basa rakasimba, vatengi vanofanira kutsvaga zvavanotarisira muna 2013.
Zvakanakisisa 2012 Zvigadzirwa zvabuda
Kuita zvekutsvaga mabhizimisi uye hupfumi hwehutano hwakakonzera hutano hwakanaka muna 2012 , sezvo huwandu huri pasi hwezvinhu zvakachengeteka hwakakonzera vatengesi kuti vawane mari inonakidza inowanika munzvimbo idzi. Mapoka maviri ehurumende akatsigirwawo nekuvandudzwa kwehutano hwemari hwevadzidzisi vemitemo, sezvinowanikwa mukukwira kwemari uye kusimudzira mashizha emakambani eUnited States. Mubvunzo ikozvino, hongu, ndeyekuti zvose izvi zvinoitika zvinogona kuramba zviri munzvimbo muna 2013.
The Positive Underpinnings Are Still There, But ...
Nyaya yekusimbisa simba inosanganisira uye zvibereko zvakakura zvezvibereko ("chikwereti") zvinowanzoreva zvinhu zvitatu zvakakosha:
1) NeFederal Reserve ichichengetedza purogiramu yakaderera, varimi havangasarudze kunze kwekuti varambe vachishandisa kutenga chikwereti kuitira kuti vawane zvibereko zvinoremekedzwa.
2) Imari yeUnited States, iyo iine usimbe, zvisinei yakasimba zvakakwana zvekuti makambani arambe ari mune hutano hwakasimba, iyo inofanira kuramba ichisimudzira kushanda kwekambani uye kukohwa kwakakwirira.
3) Nhamba dzisina kukwana - kana kuti zvikamu zvekambani dzinokundikana kugadzira chido chakatarwa uye / kana kuti zvikwereti zvikuru-zvinoramba zviri pedo nhepfenyuro dzezvakaitika kare, izvo zvinoramba zvichipa mushure mokutengeserana pamusika.
Izvi zvinhu zvitatu zvechokwadi zvinofanira kubatsira kugadzirisa zvakaderera muzvikwereti mugore ra2013. Zvisinei, zvibereko zvakare zvakaderera zvikuru pane zvakaitika kare - zvichiratidza kuti hapana chinhu chakakosha mundima idzi sezvo pane imwe chete kana maviri apfuura apfuura.
Mukuwedzera, zvibereko zvishoma zvinowedzera mukana wekuti kukura kwakashata - kwakadai sechiitiko chemashoko kana kuderera-kunogona kukonzera kutengesa kwemazana kunobatsira kwekambani uye yepamusoro yezvibereko zvisungo. (Ramba uchifunga mupfungwa, matengo uye zvibereko zvinotarisana nenzira dzakasiyana .) Mukufunga uku, kukwanisa kukwaniswa kwezvikamu izvi hazvirevi zvishoma, nepo kuderera kuri kukuru.
Vatengi, saka, vanoda kuchenjerera kutenga mune izvi mazinga - sezvinoita avo vakadurura mari mumakore maviri akapfuura, uye avo vakamboonawo misika yakanaka chete. Izvi zvinonyanya kukosha pakukohwa kukuru. Chimwe chikamu chekutsvaga kwekutsvaga kwehupfumi huripo ndeyekuti mamwe makambani akave akakwanisa kubhadhara chikwereti, kusanganisira avo vane chikwereti chakanyanya. Citigroup inoshuma kuti $ 293 mabhiriyoni muzvikwereti zvakasununguka zvepamusoro zvakabudiswa gore negore kusvika munaNovember 30, Makambani achiona mukana wokutora chikwereti pamitengo yakaderera yakabudisa $ 293 mabhiriyoni muzvisungo zvisingabatsiri kusvika munaNovember. Mukuenzanisa, iyo yakanyorwa kare yegore rose yaiva $ 271 mabhiriyoni, yakazosvika muna 2010.
Mugumisiro: njodzi yakawanda yegurusi iri kuwedzera, kunyange sezvibereko zviri kupopotera nguva yose. Kubudirira kwepamusoro, saka, haisi kupa kukosha kwakanyanya sezvazvaive muna 2011 kana kunyange pakutanga kwegore ra2012.
Izvozvo Zvakaderera Zvakabereka Sei, Zvechokwadi?
Zvibereko zvinowedzera, asi pamagumo eNovember iyo huru yebhizimisi yekutengeserana-inoshandiswa mari , iShares iBoxx $ InvesTop Investment Grade Corp. Bond Fund (ticker: LQD) yakapa zuva remazuva 30 rechibereko chakagadzirwa zve 2.75% , asi iyo yakakura zvikuru yezvibereko zveEF, iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Fund (HYG) yakapa 5.76%. Zvose izvi zvichiri kunyanya kupfuura chibereko che1,61% chinowanikwa pamakore gumi nemakumi maviri emadhora eUnited States . Zvisinei, zvose zviri zviviri zviri pedo nechokumucheto kwakakwana kwezvakaitika kare. Zvechokwadi, zvisungo zvepamusoro-soro zvakashandisa chikamu chechikamu chechipiri chegore kutengesa kune zvose zvenguva yakawanda yezvibereko uye nguva yose-yepamusoro yepamusoro yemari. Ichi chaiva chikonzero chokuchenjerera kune vashandi vazhinji munguva yehafu yechipiri ya2012, asi zvose zviviri zvekambani nehupfumi hwehupfumi hwakaramba huchikwira.
Chimwe chikonzero cheizvi ndechekuti zvibereko zvinopararira - kana kubhadhara kunobatsira kwekupararira kwenyika kune US Treasury - yakaramba yakanakira. Maererano neFederal Reserve Bank yeSt. Louis, kubhadhara mabhizimisi ebhizimisi zvakabatanidzwa zvikamu zvinokwana 1,67 kubva muzana kubva kuUnited States kubva muna 1997 kusvika muna 2012. Pakupera kwaNovember, kupararira kwacho kwaienderana nehuwandu hwemashoko akaenzana pa 1.61. Kuzvipira kwepamusoro, panguva imwechete, kugoverwa muchero unobatsira we 6.01 muzana mazana pamusoro peAmerica Pfuma panguva imwe chete, zvichienzaniswa ne558 pakupera kwaNovember.
Interest Rate Risk vs. Credit Risk
Kunyange zvazvo nyaya ino inofunga nezvekambani uye zvibereko zvakakura pamwe chete nechinangwa chemaonero a2013, makirasi maviri easset anopindura nenzira dzakasiyana dzekuchinja munharaunda yekutsvaga. Investment grade corporates inonyanya kugadzirisa kuchinja kwekuda mari, asi mahombekiti akawanda ekukohwa anonyanya kutarisana nematambudziko ekukweretesa , kana mune mamwe mazwi, hutano hwevaya vanotora zvikwereti (uye nekuwedzera, hupfumi).
Iyi ndiyo iyo maonero a2013 ezvisungo zvekambani uye zvibereko zvakakura zvinoparadzana. Kana hupfumi huchienda muhupfumi muna 2013, zvikwereti zvinowedzera. Muchiitiko ichi, kusungirirana kwekambani kunogona kutora kudzoka kwakakwana (pamwe nemukana weiyi yakanakisisa-yakabhadhara) apo hurefu hwezvibereko hunobata hunooma. Kusiyana neizvi, rumutsiriro rwekukurumidza mukukura rwaizova hwakanaka pakukohwa kwakakura, asi kuwedzera kwekupedzisira muHaimari yehuwandu kwaizova kwakawanda kwechakaipa chekutsvaga mabhizinesi ebhizinesi. Zvose zviri zviviri hazvirevi kupfuura nepakati pepakati-umo hupfumi huri kuramba huchiwedzera kuburikidza nekukura mu 1-2%-asi vatengi vanofanirwa kuziva zvose zvingangodaro.
The Bottom Line
Zvinongoitika zvekuti varairidzi vangave vaine ruzivo rwezvikwata zveasset zvakaitwa pamwe chete nekambani uye yepamusoro yezvibereko zvehutano mumakore matatu apfuura. Munguva iyo, mapoka maviri easset akabudisa zviyero zvegore negore zvakadzoka zve 9,30% uye 12,30%, zvichienderana, zvichienderana nenyaya yekushanda kusvika munaNovember 30. Nekudzoka kwakadaro kwakatove kumashure-kuona girazi, hazvishamisi zvikuru kuti makambani uye zvibereko zvakakura vanogona kuramba vachiratidza kushanda kwakasimba muna 2013. Mukuwedzera, vhiki-e-vhiki kusagadzikana kunogona kuwedzera-kusiyana kwezvakawanda zvakashata zvichienda mberi zvakasarudzwa muna 2012. Kunyange zvakadaro, kukohwa kunobatsira kwezvinhu zviviri izvi kunoramba kuchipa vashandi chinhu chakanaka zvikuru chinotanga kuenderana neChepfumi kana mari yakaenzana.
Zvimwe pamusoro pezvaunotarisira muna 2013 :
2013 Broadband Bond Market Outlook
US Treasures neMAGWARO Outlook
Emerging Market Bonds Outlook
Zvinonzwisisika : Mashoko ari pawebsite ino anopa zvinangwa zvekukurukurirana chete, uye haafaniri kutorwa semazano ekutsvaga mari. Pasinei nemamiriro ezvinhu iyo ruzivo runomiririra hutungamiri kutenga kana kutengesa zvigumisiro. Nguva dzose taurirana nemudzidzisi wekutsvaga mari uye muteresi wezvemitero usati waita mari.