The Implications of Bond Default Rates
Zvinonzwisisika, kukwirira-kana kukwira-kusagadzikana kwehuwandu chinhu chisina kunaka mukushanda kwechikwata chemafa, asi kuderera-kana kuwira-kushandiswa kwehutano kunobatsira kutsigira kushanda. Mikana yakashata inowanzove yakakwirira kupfuura nguva munguva yehupfumi, uye yakaderera panguva apo hupfumi hwakasimba. Izvo zvisingakwanisi kutarisa ndezvokufunga kune vashandi vemunyika, mashizha ekutsvaga mabhizimusi , kukwira-kubereka , uye kubuda kwemashamba mabhizimisi, asi hazvibatsiri kuUnited States Masimba sezvo pasina kana mukana wekuti hurumende yehurumende ichatarisa chikwereti chayo - - mumakore anopfuura 200, haina kumbove.
Kuitika kweBond Defaults
Kunyange zvazvo kusakanganisika kwechiitiko ichi chinokonzerwa nemutengo wehutano hweumwe munhu, kazhinji zvisizvo zvinowanzoitika zvisingawanzoitiki zvevhesi yepamusoro. Iwe unogona kuwana nhoroondo yezvakaitika pamakambani uye mahombekiti akareba masheji asingatauri kubva mubazi rekuongorora Standard & Poor 's pano.
Nzvimbo iyi kubva muna 2012, iyo ine fuma yemari yakatarwa kubva muna 1981, inopa humwe ruzivo pamusoro pokutadza kwekutsvaga kwekutsvaga bhizinesi uye kuburitswa kwepamusoro (kana zvisiri kuzivikanwa se "junk") zvisungo. Zvakakosha kutora kanguva kuti uone ma chati nematafura kuti udzidze zvakawanda pamusoro pezvisizvo, asi zvimwe zvinotora zvinotora ndezvi:
- Zvichienderana nemari yakave yakaderera zvikuru mumakambani emabhizimisi ehurumende panguva, zvichienzanisa 1,47% yezvinhu zvose zvakakosha mumakore makumi matatu nemakore akayerwa. Bhuku rekutsvaga mabhizimisi rakasarudzwa pamutengo we 0.10% chete pagore, nepo kusagadziriswa kwechikwata chekutsvaga kwekutsvaga (chibereko chakareba) chibvumirano chaive ne 4.22%.
- Izvo zvizhinji zvezvikanganiso zvakaitika pakati pevakaderera pasi-vakaverengwa. Mutengo wegore wemakore makumi matatu nemasere ekuchengetedzwa kwevheti yakaratidzwa AAA (yakakwirira kwazvo) uye AA yaiva 0.0% uye 0.2%, maererano. Zvichienzaniswa, kushandiswa kwekutengesa pakati peB-rated issuers (yechipiri yakaderera) yaive ye428%, asi kune imwe yakaderera, CCC / C, iyo yakashata yakave 26.85%.
- Nenzira yakakura, huwandu hwezvakakwana hunotangira kuderedzwa kune chikwereti chekwereti .
- Masangano eMaspala akaonesawo kuderera kusingabhadharwi, uye sezvazvakanga zvakaita munharaunda yezvekambani, zvizhinji zvezvakakanganisika zvakaitika pakati pezvikwereti zvakaderera zvakanyanya munharaunda. Maererano neFmsbonds.inc. , "Nezvisungo zvisina kukwana, chikuru chinokonzera, maererano naMoody's, chaiva 'mungozi yebhizimisi.' Iyi njodzi inokonzerwa nokukundikana kweprojekti inobhadharwa nehurumende kuti ibudirire migumisiro yaro yakarongwa nekuda kwekugadzirisa kukanganisa kana kuderera kwezvemari, zvichiita kuti purojekiti isasvike. "
Kudzivisa Bond Kusiyana
Kubva pakuongororwa kwebhizimisi rezvisungo, zviri pachena kuti vashandi vanogona kupedza kukanganisa kwavo nekushambadzira muAAA kana AA vakaratidzira zvibvumirano kana mubhadha mari iyo inonyanya kutarisa pane izvi zvakachengetedzwa zvakachengetwa.
Kunyangwe zvakadaro, muteresi anobata zvibvumirano kana mari yezvisungo zvinonyatsodzivisa kusagadzikana zvichiri pasi pekuda kwehuwandu hwehuwandu hwehuwandu - uye naizvozvo hazvidziviriri pakurasikirwa kwevakuru kana uchizotengeswa usati wasvika.