Iyo yakafuridza dot dot plot ndiyo inokosha yekubudiswa kwemashoko
Chii Chinonzi Dot Plot?
Dhizha racho rinoparidzirwa mushure memumwe weFed musangano. Inoratidza maitiro evanhu 16 veSweden Open Market Committee (FOMC), iyo inotarisa muviri mukati meFed.
Chimwe nechimwe chinotsanangurwa chinomiririra maonero omunhu pane iyo iyo inodyidzwa mari inofanirwa kunge iri pakuguma kwemakore akasiyana-siyana emakarani anoratidzwa, pamwe nekufamba kwenguva-nhepfenyuro yemari yakaderedzwa mari mushure mokunge Fed yapedzisa kusimbisa kana "normalizing" mutemo kubva pamazinga ayo aripo. Dhaurirano rakataridzira rinomiririra kuedza kweFed kunopfuurira kuve yakanyatsojeka pamwe nekuremekedza mitemo yayo.
2018 Tarisiro
Nhengo yevhesi yekutarisira ndeyemitengo yekurova 2 muzana kusvika pa2.2 muzana kusvika pakupera kwa2018, uye zvichida yakakwirira se 2.75 muzana munguva refu. Ikozvino chinangwa chekudyidzana kwemari inosvika pa125 kusvika ku55 muzana.
Chinonyanya kukosha kupfuura nhamba yakakwana yevamiririri veFOMC ' inotungamirirwa . Muchidimbu, vatengesi vanoda kuziva kana FOMC inosendamira kune chinoderedza mutemo wemari uye kuderedza mitengo, kana kuti mitemo yakawanda-iyo inoreva kuti kuwedzera kwemari. Semuenzaniso, kuchinja kusvika kumahombekombe akakwirira muburani rekushama muna March 2014 kwakaita kuti kutengeswa kwenguva pfupi muzvitoro uye zvisungo, kuratidzira kwevatengi 'kutya kuti Fed inogona kusimudza mafero nokukurumidza kupfuura kutarisirwa.
Ikozvino mapoka epasi inosanganisira zvirongwa zve 2018, 2019, 2020, uye nguva refu. Zvinotarisirwa kuti federal money rate ichagara paanenge 2.1 muzana kusvika pakupera kwa2019.
Izvo Dot Plot Haisi
Ramba uchifunga mupfungwa dzako paunotarisa chati iyo dhidhiro imwe neimwe inomiririra maonero emufambi wenhare iyo mitero inofanira kuva panguva iyoyo.
Tsanangudzo yavo iri pakati penhare. Mune mamwe mazwi, madhandi haafaniri kutorwa kunomiririra kuti nhengo iri kutarisa nhamba yacho chaiye.
Zvakakoshawo kuyeuka kuti Fed inoramba ichichengeterwa nedzimwe nyika, ichigadzirisa hurongwa hwayo kubva mune zvoupfumi, kutengesa , uye zviitiko zvepasi rose. Kana zviitiko zvakakura zvakadai sokurwiswa kwegandanga, kuderera kwehupfumi kwakanyanya, kana kukwidzika kwakakosha muhutachiwana, nhengo dzichachinja maitiro kubva pane zvazvino. Somugumisiro, nguva yakareba kwenguva yakareba pamusoro penhizha inoita zvishoma kudarika kune iyo iri pedyo nezvino.
Pakupedzisira, hutungamiri hweFOMC hunochinja uye hunofuratira pakati pemarudzi akasiyana-siyana emabhangi mumutemo. Mune mamwe mazwi, vanhu vari kumashure kwemashata vanochinja munguva-imwe ingangodaro inobva mumashandisirwo mumatanda.
Zvimwe Zvokufungisisa
Hapana nzira yokutaurira kuti dhidhi ndeipi yemuyo, saka varairidzi havanyatsonzwisisi kukosha kwekubatanidza padhidhi iyo iri kunze uye yakatarwa kwenguva yakati. Kanawo hapana chinoratidza kuti dothi ndeye 2018 Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Zvinonzwisisika, izvi hazvizogadziri vatori vemashambadzidzi kubva pakuverenga zvakawanda muzvikamu zvakasiyana-siyana izvo zvinokonzerwa nehumwe humwe hutsva hutsva hwemavara.
Bondanari vatengesi vanofanira kutarisira kuti kusunungurwa uku kuchava mutsva wekutengeserana kwemashamba mushure memumwe musangano weFed. Animbova Fed Chairman Janet Yellen akanyevera kuti vanhu "havafaniri kutarisa mapuranga ezvo senzira inokosha iyo Komiti iri kutaura kuvanhu vose."
The Bottom Line
Chimbofunga chirongwa chemashizha sechimwe chimwe chinhu chaungashandisa kuita zvisarudzo zvekutsvaga, asi-sezvazvakangoita nechinangwa chimwe chete-chenjerera kuti urege kuverenga zvakanyanya mariri.