Izvi zvinogona kusiya vashandi vanozvibvunza kuti chii chinonzi bubble, kuti chii chinokonzera kudai, uye kuti bubble rinoputika rinogona kurevei pamapostifoti avo.
Pasi apa, tinotsvaka kupindura umwe neumwe wemibvunzo iyi zvakare.
Chii chinonzi Asset Bubble?
Bhuti inongova mamiriro ezvimwe zvinhu zvinoshandisa kure pane zvakakosha zvechokwadi kwenguva yakareba. Kazhinji, kumhanyira mumatengo kana kunotengeswa nemakaro anowirirana nevarimi uye vakapararira vakatsigira kuti pasinei nokuti matengo akakwirira angave sei iye zvino, mumwe munhu angangodaro aripa mutengo wakakwirira kunyange munguva inotevera. Pakupedzisira, mabhudzi anoguma nemutengo wemari inoderera kune imwe yakakosha kukosha, zvichiita kuti kurasikirwa kwakaoma kune vashandi vanga vazononoka kupati.
Pakave nemabhuru akawanda mumakore ose ezvakaitika kare, kusanganisira chiDutch talip bulb mania (1630s), zvikamu zveSouth Sea Company muGreat Britain (1720), motokari yemigwagwa muUnited States (1840s), mari yeAmerica inotengesa iyo yekutengesa makumi maviri, uye mashamba eJapan nematoro muma1980. Munguva pfupi ichangopfuura, United States yakaona hurumende mune zvose zvesayenzi (2000-2001) uye imba (pakati pe2000).
Zvose, zvechokwadi, zvakaguma pakuputsika mumutengo wemubvunzo wega wega wega, uye - nokuda kwezviputi zvakakura zvakadai sezviya muJapan muma80 uye muUnited States mumakore gumi adarika - nguva inopera yehupfumi husina simba.
Sei Bond Market inenge iri mubhozi?
Kana iwe uchitenda zvaunenge uchiverenga mune zvehupfumi, iyo yeUnited bond yemugove ndiyo inotevera hukuru hukuru hwebasa.
Icho chirevo chezvinhu izvi hachisi nyore: US Treasury zvibereko zvakaderera zvakanyanya zvokuti pane zvishoma zvishoma zvokuramba zvishoma nezvishoma. (Ramba uchifunga mupfungwa dzako, matengo uye zvibereko zvinotarisana nenzira dzakasiyana .)
Zvimwe, chikonzero chikuru chinobereka zvakaderera ndeye mutemo we -ultra-low shorty- interest interest rate iyo Federal Reserve yakagadzirirwa kuitira kukurudzira kukura. Kana imwe nguva hupfumi hudzorera zvakakwana uye basa rinosimudzirwa kune mamwe maitiro akaenzana, kufunga kunofamba, Fed inotanga kusimudza mitero . Uye kana izvi zvikazoitika, kudzvinyirira kwepanyika kunowanikwa pasi pePfuma inobviswa, uye zvibereko zvichamuka zvakasimba (sezvinodonhedzwa mutengo).
Nenzira iyi, zvinogona kutaurwa kuti pfuma inowanikwa mubasa-kwete nekuda kwemania sezvakaitika mumatope akapfuura, asi nekuti zvinowanikwa mumusika zvakakwirira kudarika zvaizova kunze kwechiito chinotyisa cheFed.
Izvozvi Zvinoreva Bhabheri Richazara Here?
Iyo inowanikwa huchenjeri ndeyekuti inenge ichitaura kuti Treasury inobereka ichave yakakwirira makore matatu kusvika mashanu kubva ikozvino kupfuura zvavari nhasi. Icho ndicho chokwadi chinowanzoitika, asi vatengi vanofanirwa kunyatsofungisisa kune zvinhu zviviri.
Chokutanga, kuwedzera kwezvibereko - kana zvichiitika - zvinogona kuitika pane imwe nguva yakareba, panzvimbo pfupi pfupi, kuputika kwakafanana nekuparara kwe dot.com bubble.
Chechipiri, nhoroondo yekambani yeJapan yebhizimisi inogona kupa imwe nguva yepundits dzakawanda dzine maonero asina kunaka paMari yeUnited States. Kutarisa kuJapan kunoratidzira nyaya yakafanana kune zvakaitika pano muUnited States: dambudziko rezvemari rakauyiswa nekuputsika mumusika weimba, rakateverwa nekuwedzerwa kwenguva yekukura kunononoka uye nheyo yebhandi yepamusoro inenge iri pedyo ne-zero chikwereti uye inotevera kuwedzera kwehuwandu . Uye, sezvakangoitika muUnited States nhasi, mutengo wechibvumirano wemakore gumi wakaderera pasi pe2%. Kusiyana neUnited States, zvisinei-apo izvi zvose izvi zvakaitika mumakore mana akapfuura-pamwe chete - Japan yakaona zviitiko izvi muma1991. Doro muJapan makore gumi pasi pe2% rakaitika mukupera kwegore ra1997, uye harina kudzokazve muzinga uyu kupfuura nguva shomanana kubvira ipapo. Kubva mugore ra2014, rinoramba richipa chibereko chiri pasi pe1% - sezvakaitwa makore gumi apfuura.
Uyezve, mune imwe nyaya inoti "Bonds: Akaberekwa Kuva Munyoro" pane mutsamba webhuku rinonzi SeekingAlpha.com, Mutungamiri weAllianceBernstein akasarudzwa anonzi Douglas J. Peebles akati, "Kuwedzerwa kusungirwa kwezvisungo nemakambani einishuwarenzi uye mapoka ehurumende anotsanangurwa-mazano anobatsira kufambisa kwaunoita musungo kunomuka. " Mune mamwe mazwi, kukohwa kwepamusoro kwaizoita kuti kuve nekutsvaga kudiwa kwezvisungo, kuenzanisa kushandiswa kwezvimwe zvinotengeswa.
Ko musungo weUnited States wekuAmerica ungazopedzisira wawa, sezhinji vari kufanotaura here? Zvichida. Asi chiitiko chakasangana nematambudziko muJapan - chakange chakanyatsofanana neyedu kusvika ikozvino-chinoratidza kuti mitero inogona kuramba yakaderera kwenguva refu kudarika vatengesi vari kutarisira.
Nhoroondo Dzemakore Akare-kare Inoratidza Kukosha kweMajeri Kutengesa-Kubuda muzvikwereti
Kutarisa mberi kwakaratidzira kunoratidza kuti kuderera muHaigari kwakange kusinganiswi. Maererano nedhimwe nhoroondo yakanyorwa naAswath Damodaran kuNew York University yeStern School of Business, makore makumi matatu ehutano akatambura kusadzoka mumakore emakore 15 kubva kune 84 kubva muna 1928. Kazhinji, kurasikirwa kwakanga kusinganzwisisiki, sezvakaratidzwa patafura pasi. Ramba uchifunga mupfungwa, zvisinei, izvo zvinobereka zvaive zvakakwirira munguva yakapfuura kudarika zvavari iko zvino, saka zvakatora zvakawanda zvekuderera kwekutengesa kubvisa zvibereko munguva yakapfuura kupfuura iyo nhasi. Zvose zvinodzoka zvinosanganisira zvose zvibereko uye kutengesa mutengo:
- 1931: -2.56%
- 1941: -2.02%
- 1951: -0.30%
- 1955: -1.34%
- 1956: -2.26%
- 1958: -2.10%
- 1959: -2.65%
- 1967: -1.58%
- 1969: -5.01%
- 1978: -0.78%
- 1980: -2.99%
- 1987: -4.96%
- 1994: -8.04%
- 1999: -8.25%
- 2009: -11.12%
Apo kushanda kwekare kusati kuri chiratidzo chezviitiko zvomunguva yemberi, izvi zvinobatsira kuenzanisira kushaikwa kwekuwisira kukuru mumusika wezvisungo. Kana mushambadzi webvumirano uchinge wawira panguva dzakaoma, zvimwe zvingangoitika ndezvokuti tichaona makore akawanda akatevedzana ekudarika kwemaitiro, zvakadai sezvakaitika muma1950.
Ko Zvakadini Nezvisizvo Zvisiri Zvivigiro zveMusika?
Pfuma haisi yega yega yemakethe inonzi iri mububu. Nharo dzakadaro dzakagadzirwa maererano nekambani uye yepamusoro yezvibereko zvisungo, izvo zvinokosheswa zvichienderana nezvibereko zvavo zvinopararira maererano nePfuma. Hazvirevi chete kuti izvi zvinopararira zvakaderera kusvika pamatongerwo ezvakaitika kare mukuratidza kudyara kwevatengesi kukura kwengozi, asi iyo yakawanda-yakasimwa michero paPfuma inoreva kuti mhedzisiro yakakwana mumatunhu aya akawira pedyo nekusingaperi nguva dzose. Muzviitiko zvose, nyaya ye "bubble" inofanana nayo: mari yakadururirwa muzvikwata izvi zvepasimusi pakati pevagari vemainari vanoramba vachida zvezvibereko, kutengesa mitengo kusvika kumazinga asina kukodzera.
Izvi zvinoratidza kubvumira mamiriro ezvinhu here? Kwete hazvo. Kunyange zvazvo zvichinyatsoratidza kuti ramangwana rekudzoka kwezvikwata zvemari idzi zvinogona kunge zvisinganyanyi kushanda mumakore anotevera, matambudziko ekutengeswa kukuru mune chero ipi zvayo yegore rakarenda yakave yakaderera kana nhoroondo chiri chiratidzo chipi zvacho. A kutarisa nhamba:
Kudzvara kwehupfumi kwakakonzera kutadza kwakanaka mumakore mana chete kubva muna 1980, sezvakaitwa neJP Morgan High Yield Index. Kunyange imwe yekudengenyeka uku yakanga yakakura -27% panguva yematambudziko emari muna 2008 - mamwe akanga ari maduku: -6% (1990), -2% (1994), uye -6% (2000).
Bharclays Akabatanidzwa US Bond Index - iyo inosanganisira Pfuma, makambani, uye mamwe mabhizimisi eUnited States ekutsvaga kwekutsvaga yakawanikwa mumakore 32 emakore 33 adarika. Rimwe gore gore ra1994, apo rakadurura 2.92%.
Izvi zvinopera, zvichida zvichivhundutsa panguva iyoyo, zvakaratidza kuti zvinokwanisa kutarisira vatengesi venguva refu - uye yakanga isati yava nguva refu misika ichiwedzera uye varairidzi vakakwanisa kuwanazve kurasikirwa kwavo.
Kana izvi zviri Zvechokwadi Bond Market Bubble, Chii Unofanira Kuita Nezvo?
Munenge mamiriro ezvinhu ose, sarudzo yakanakisisa mukutsvaga mari ndeyokuti ugare iyo dzidzo upe hupfumi hwako huri kuramba hunosangana nekukanganisa kwako kune njodzi uye chinangwa chenguva refu. Kana iwe ukaisa mari muzvisungo zvekusiyana-siyana, kugadzikana, kana kuti kuwedzera mari yako yemapatofumi, vanogona kuramba vachiita basa iri kunyange kana mutengesi unosangana nemhirizhonga mumakore anotevera.
Pane kudaro, sarudzo yakachenjera ingave yekutsamwisa kudzokera kwako kwekudzoka mushure mokumhanya kwakasimba kwemakore achangopfuura. Pane kutarisira kuti kupfuurira kwe stellar kunodzoka pamusika unoziva panguva ino, vashandi vanogona kuva vakachenjera kuronga zvimwe zviitiko zvishoma zvishoma zvinotungamirira mberi.
Izvo zvakasarudzwa kune izvi zvingave ari munhu ari mukati kana pedyo nekurasikirwa, kana ndiani anoda kushandisa mari mukati memakore maviri kusvika kumakore. Chero nguva apo mudyari anoda kushandisa mari yacho nokukurumidza, haibhadhari kutora njodzi dzisina kukodzera zvisinei kuti chii chiri mumamiriro akawanda emusika.
Chimwe Chokupedzisira Cherechedzo ...
Pundits vakaita kuti basa ravo rive pachena kudana makuro makuru emisika, saka pane zvakawanda zvinokurudzira kuti, "Bubble!" Uye unakidzwa nehuwandu hwemashoko hunotevera. Sezvazviri nguva dzose panyaya yekutsvaga mari, usatenda zvose zvaunonzwa. Kana pane kusava nechokwadi, heino nyaya inobva kuLondon Telegraph inonzi, "Bhobho bubble ingozi yakamirira kuitika". Musi wechidimbu? January 12, 2009.
Zvinonzwisisika : Mashoko ari pawebsite ino anopa zvinangwa zvekukurukurirana chete, uye haafaniri kutorwa semazano ekutsvaga mari. Pasinei nemamiriro ezvinhu iyo ruzivo runomiririra hutungamiri kutenga kana kutengesa zvigumisiro. Iva nechokwadi chekutsvaga kubhadhara mari uye vateresi vadzidzisi usati waita mari.