Chikonzero nei Kuparara Kungangova Mumakadhi
Pane dambudziko rimwe chete nemutsara wekufunga, zvisinei: hazviiti zvachose kunzwisisa.
Muzvokwadi, kushambadzirwa kwebhizimisi kunopindira kune tarisiro yeFed chiyero chinowedzera inogona kuwedzera zvishoma nezvishoma. Panzvimbo pekukurumidza, kudengenyeka kunoshamisa, zvisungo zvingangodaro zvinotambura nemutengo wakaderera kushandiswa kwenguva yakareba. Izvi zvinofanira kuita kuti zvose zvakashata zvive nyore uye nguva yakareba yekudzoka kwakaderera, asi kukanganisa kwekuparara kwakakwana hakusi kudarika.
Pane zvikonzero zvishoma zvitanhatu nei zvichiita izvi:
Bond Market Kuparadzana Kunowanzove Kusipo
A kutarisa kumashure kuburikidza nekudzoka kwenhoroondo yekutsvaga kwekugadzirisa-bhizimisi zvisungo zvinoratidza rondedzero yehutano mumakore makumi matatu nemakore akapfuura. Chinhu chiduku pane kuparara chakaitika muna 1994 apo Fed yakasarudzwa nemitemo nekusimudza mitero nokukurumidza, asi kunyange zvakadaro kurashika kwaingova 2.9% chete.
Vanyengeri vachabva vaona kuti makore makumi matatu nemakumi matatu emakore akawanda anowanzobatanidza bhadha yebhizimisi, uye ichokwadi. Saka kohweti rebere rinoita sei? Vashandi vanogona kuyeuka kuti kumakore ekuma1970 kwakange iri nguva yakasimudzirwa nekutengesa kwezvakanyanya - mamiriro ezvinhu akaipa kupfuura mamwe ose emushambadzi wezvisungo.
Bonds yakapindura zvisina kunaka, asi kunyange munyaya iyi, kurasikirwa kwaive kwakanyanyisa. Maererano nedhesiyo yakachengetwa naAsath Damodaran weSU School's Stern School yeBusiness, chinyorwa cheMari yeAmerica yegore regumi gumi chakabudisa zvinotevera zvakadzoka kubva mugore rimwe nerimwe rekare kubva muna 1977 kusvika muna 1980: 1.29%, -0.78%, 0.67%, uye - 2.99%.
Ichokwadi, zvibereko zvaive zvakakwirira ipapo-zvinoreva kuti pane chibereko chikuru chekugadzirisa kukanganisa kwemitengo. Kunyange zvakadaro, nhamba dzinoratidza kuti hakuna kuparara kwakaitika kunyange mumamiriro ezvinhu asina kunaka evane makore makumi manomwe ekupedzisira - uye vatengi vanowedzera kudarika nguva iyi yekushaya simba neidzo dzakasimba dzakaitika mumakore akatevera.
Fed Rate Hikes Ndiyo Nyaya Inozivikanwa
Ichi ndicho chikonzero chinonyanya kukosha nei bhizimisi rebhizimisi risingaitike. Kazhinji, misika inongoratidzira kurwisana kwechisimba kuzvinhu zvinoshamisa zvisingaiti uye kwete nyaya dzinonyatsozivikanwa mberi.
Kana iri kuuya kuHed rate yekutengesa, ndiyo yekupedzisira. Kubvira muna 2013, misika yave ichiziva kuti inowanzoitika ndeyokuti Fed yaizotanga kufamba mairi mukati megore ra2015 . Izvi zvakasara vatengesi vane nguva yakawanda yekugadzirira, uye inobvisa chikamu chekushamiswa kubva ku equation. Kunyange zvazvo nguva yekukwira kwekutanga ichiri chinhu chinokosha pamisika, usatarisira kudengenyeka kukuru mumavhiki anotungamirira kusvika kudhechi yeFed kuti iri kukurisa mitero, kana kunyange pazuva rekuzivisa icho pacharo. Misika haigoni kupindura nenzira iyo kune zviitiko zvinotarisirwa izvi munguva refu.
The Market Is Ever Reacting to the Shift in Fed Policy
Mutarisiro wekuti Fed ichasimudza mitero yakatoonekwa mumatengo emusika.
Kunyange sekuzvisungo kwenguva refu kwekuita kwenguva yakareba makore mashomanana adarika, chibereko pamakore maviri eUnited States Treasury chakasimuka .
Sezvo gore remakore maviri rikanyanyo kukoshesa kukura kunonyanya kufarira purogiramu yeFed, kuregererwa kwaro kubva mukushanda kwenguva refu yezvisungo kunoratidza kuti vashandi vatove vachigadzirisa maitiro ekukwikwidza. Kutaura kwekuti vashandi vari kuchinja mahofisi avo epanguva ino kufambisa kunoderedza zvikuru mikana yekuputsika, iyo inongowanikwa chete apo varairi vese vanoedza kuvhara musuo wokubuda panguva imwe chete.
Dambudziko Riri Kuona Mavheti Zvakanyanya
Zvakakoshawo kuchengeta mupfungwa kuti zviri muFed zvakanakisisa zvisingateereri kutora chero zviito zvichange zvichitungamirira kushambadzi yebhizimisi. Chero chisarudzo chingazovhiringidza mari yekutengesa mari inogona kudyisa kusvika mune zvehupfumi, izvo zvingazoita kuti Fed ichinje maitiro ayo.
Sezvo Fed yaida kudzivisa izvozvo, zvakajeka, iri kuedza zvose kuyananisira mazano ekugadzirisa uye kugadzirira misika kune nguva uye huwandu hwekuda kwayo-kuwedzera kwekuwedzera. Izvi zvinoparadza chikamu chekushamisika, icho-sezvakataurwa kare - kunoderedza kusangana kwekuparara.
Dambudziko rekune dzimwe nyika Ndiri kuchengetedza Mari yeAdha
Sezvakakurukurwa pano , mushambadzi wehurumende yeUnited States haifaniri kushanda muvharo: mamiriro ehupfumi uye kushambadzira kwebhizimisi kutengeserana kune dzimwe nyika kune zvakananga pamusika wedu. Uye ikozvino, kutengesa kweEurope kwezvehupfumi - uye kunogona kuendesa munharaunda ine ngozi ine ngozi (kureva kuti, mitengo inowira pane kukura) - yakaderedza zvibereko munyika yose. Izvi zvinoita kuti zvikwereti zvakanyanya zvakanyanya mumusika weAmerica weMariki zvinokwezva, uye zvinoumba tsime rekudiwa iro richaunza vatengi kana chibereko chichikwira nokukurumidza. Iko kunotora: chero bedzi Europe iri kunetseka, zvipingamupinyi zvebhizimisi rekubatana muUnited States zvakaderera zvikuru.
Vashandi Vanokonzerwa ne "Crash" Mentality
Ichi chinhu chisingaitiki muhurukuro pamusoro pemusika wezvisungo. Vashandi vakawanda vanogara kuburikidza nemhirizhonga yemusika mugore ra2001-2002 uye muna 2007-2008, uye vazhinji vakawana ruzivo rwekutengeserana kwebhizimisi rekutengeserana rakaitika mugore ra2013. Izvi zviitiko zvakakonzera kuderedzwa kwekutya pakati pevatengesi, uye kutya vanodyidzwa nenhau dzisingagumi dzingangove dzakanganisa mumatokisi, zvikwereti zvakakura zvezvibereko , kushambadzira mabhizinesi ebhizinesi, nezvimwewo.
Ichokwadi ndeyekuti imwe nyaya yakanzi, "More of the Same" haichazovi nekuverenga, asi imwe inonzi "Sei Kuparara KweMisika Kwava Pedyo!" Zvechokwadi zvichaitika. Vose vanoita zvekurima mari, saka, vanoda kutaurirana pamusoro pematambudziko emisika angangodaro ne (guru kwazvo) gorosi yemunyu.
The Bottom Line
Wedzera iyo, uye kukanganisa hakunakwanisi. Nguva inotora nguva yekudzoka kwakadzika inenge iine chokwadi, kukwirira kusinganzwisisiki kunogona kuitika, uye mushamba webhebhe inogona kuva mumakadhi. Zvisinei, matambudziko acho anonyanya kurwisana nemhando yenjodzi yaunowanzoona ichikurukurwa munyaya yezvemari. Saka funga nzira dzekuisa podfolio yako yekuchinja mamiriro ezvinhu, asi usarega kutya kwebhizimisi yebhizimisi kuve kwako nani.