Kunyange zvazvo izvi zvishanu zvakaonekwa sezvo nyika iri pangozi yakangoitika yekusagona kusakwanisa pamusana pedambudziko muna 2010-2011, dambudziko racho rine migumisiro yakareba kwazvo iyo inowedzera kunze kwemiganhu yavo kunyika yose.
Kutaura zvazviri, mutungamiriri weBhange reEngland akazvitaurira se "dambudziko guru rezvemari kubva kuma1930, kana risati rasvika," munaOctober 2011.
Dambudziko racho rakatanga sei?
Ihupfumi hwenyika yose hwakatakura kukura zvishoma kubva kudambudziko rezvemari reUnited States muna 2008-2009, iro rakafumura mitemo isingagoneki yehurumende yenyika dzeEurope uye kumativi ose enyika. Greece, iyo yakapedza nemoyo wose kwemakore uye yakakundikana kuita shanduko dzemari, yakanga iri yekutanga kutanga kunzwa nhengo yekukura kusimba. Apo kukura kunonoka, ndizvo zvinoita mitero yemitero - kuita kukonzera mari yakawanda kusingagoneki. Chigumisiro chaiva chokuti Prime Prime Minister George Papandreou, pakupera kwegore ra2009, yakamanikidzwa kuzivisa kuti hurumende dzekare dzakakundikana kuratidza ukuru hwezvakawanda zvehurumende. Muzvokwadi, zvikwereti zveGreece zvaive zvakakura zvakanyanya zvokuti zvakanyanya kudarika ukuru hwehupfumi hwenyika yose, uye nyika yakanga isingagoni kuvanza dambudziko racho.
Vatengesi vakapindura vachitsvaga zvibereko zvakakwirira kuGreece zvisungo, izvo zvakaita kuti mutengo wekodzero yemunyika uwedzere uye waida kubhadhara bhailouts neEuropean Union neEuropean Central Bank (ECB). Misika yacho yakatangawo kutengesa kushandiswa kwezvibvumirano mune dzimwe nyika dzine chikwereti chakawanda munzvimbo iyi, kutarisira matambudziko akafanana neakaitika muGreece.
Sei zvisungo zvinobereka zvichienderana nehutambudzi urwu, uye zvinorevei?
Chikonzero chekumuka kwezvisungo zvinobatsira zviri nyore: kana varairi vakaona njodzi yakakwirira inobatanidza nekutsinhanisa mune zvisungo zvehurumende, ivo vachada kudzoka kwakakwirira kuti vavatsigire nokuda kwengozi iyo. Izvi zvinotanga kukanganisa kwakashata: kudiwa kwezvibereko zvakakwirira kunoenderana nekukwereta kwepamusoro kwenyika iyo iri mudambudziko, iyo inotungamirira kune hupfumi hwekuwedzera hutori, zvichiita kuti vatengesi vatsvake kunyange zvibereko zvakakwirira, nezvimwe zvakadaro. Kurasikirwa kukuru kwevatengi vanovimba nekutengesa kunowanzokonzera kutengesa kusanganisa kwete nyika iyo iri mubvunzo, asiwo dzimwe nyika dzine mari yakafanana isina simba - iyo inowanzoti "kuparadzirwa."
Chii chakaitwa nehurumende dzeEurope pamusoro penhamo?
IEuropean Union yakatora matanho, asi yakatama zvishoma nezvishoma sezvo inoda kubvumirwa kwemarudzi ose mubatanidzwa. Nzira huru yekuita kusvika ikozvino yave yakarongeka yebhailouts yezvematongerwe enyika eEurope. Muchirimo, 2010, apo European Union uye International Monetary Fund yakabudisa 110 mabhiriyoni ema euro (iyo yakaenzana ne $ 163 mabhiriyoni) kuGreece. Greece yaida chikwereti chechipiri pakati pegore ra2011, nguva ino inosvika madhora 157 mabhiriyoni.
Musi waMarch 9, 2012, Greece nevakakwereta vakabvumirana kugadziriswa kwechikwereti kwakagadzirisa danho reimwe rutivi rwemari yebhailout. Ireland nePortugal zvakare yakagamuchira bhailouts, munaNovember 2010 uye muna May 2011, zvichienderana. Nhengo yeEurozone nyika yakasimbisa European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) kuti ipe zvikwereti zvinokurumidza kune dzimwe nyika mumatambudziko emari.
IEuropean Central Bank yakazobatanidzwawo. IECB yakaronga hurongwa, munaAugust 2011, kutenga hurumende dzehurumende kana zvichidiwa kuitira kuchengetedza michero kubva pakuwedzera kusvika kune imwe nyika dzakadai seItaly neSpain zvisingakwanisi kutenga. MunaDecember 2011, ECB yakaita € 489 ($ 639 Bhiriyoni) muchikwereti chinowanikwa kumabhanki anotambudza emunharaunda e-low-low rates, ndokuteverwa nekumativi maviri munaFebruary 2012. Zita remurongwa uyu raiva Long Term Refinancing Operation kana LTRO .
Nzvimbo dzakawanda dzezvemari dzaiva nechikwereti chinouya chakakodzera muna 2012, zvichiita kuti vakwanise kuchengetedza kune zvigaro zvavo panzvimbo yekuwedzera zvikwereti. Zvishoma nezvishoma kukwereta kwezvikwereti, zvakare, ingadai yakayera mukukura kwehupfumi ndokuita kuti dambudziko riwedzere. Somugumisiro, veEECB vakatsvaga kukurudzira mabhangi 'mabheji aya kuti vabatsire kupedza izvi zvinogona kuitika.
Kunyange zvazvo zviito zvevanhu veEurope vadzidzisi vemitemo zvichiwanzobatsira kubatsiridza mari yemari munguva shomanana, ivo vaitsoropodzwa zvikuru se "kungokanda zvigone pasi mumugwagwa," kana kuisa mhinduro chaiye kune imwe nguva inotevera. Mukuwedzera, dambudziko guru rakarongedzwa: apo nyika duku dzakaita seGreece zviduku zvakakwana kuti dziponeswe neEuropean Central Bank, Italy neSpain zvakakura zvikuru kuti dzisaponeswe. Izvo zvinotyisa zvenyika yehutano hwezvematongerwo enyika, saka, iyo nyaya yakakosha yemisika kune dzimwe nzvimbo muna 2010, 2011, uye 2012.
Muna 2012, dambudziko racho rakasvika pakuchinja kukuru apo European Central Bank, Mutungamiri Mario Draghi, akazivisa kuti ECB yaizoita "chero zvingatora" kuchengetedza eurozone pamwechete. Masoko akakomberedza nyika pakarepo akabatanidza pamashoko, uye kubereka munyika dzakavhunduka dzeEurope zvakawira zvakanyanya mukati mehafu yegore. (Ramba uchifunga, matengo uye zvibereko zvinotarisana nenzira dzakasiyana.) Kunyange zvazvo Draghi's statement isina kugadzirisa dambudziko racho, yakaita kuti vatengesi vanyatsogadziriswa kutenga zvisungo zvemadzinza maduku. Zvibereko zvishoma, zvekare, vakatenga nguva yevekodzero dzepamusoro-soro kugadzirisa nyaya dzavo dzakawanda.
Ndeipi mamiriro ezvinhu aripo edambudziko iri?
Nhasi, zvibereko pazvikwereti zveEurope zvakaderera kusvika pasi zvakanyanya. Miti yakawanda yegore ra2010-2012 yakakwezva vatengi kumisika yakadai saSpain neItaly, kutengesa mitengo kumusoro nekuunza zvibereko. Kunyange zvazvo izvi zvinoratidza mutengi mukuru kunyaradza nekuisa njodzi yekutsvaga mari mumatengesi emunharaunda iyo, dambudziko iri rinorarama nenzira inononoka kukura kwehupfumi uye huwandu hunowedzera kuti Europe inonyura mukusagadzikana (kureva, kutapukira kwezvinhu zvisina kunaka). IEuropean Central Bank yakagadzirisa kuburikidza nekushungurudza mutengo wemari, uye inowanikwa panzira yekutanga purogiramu yakawanda yekunyorera yakafanana neyo inoshandiswa neU.S. Federal Reserve muUnited States.
Sei kusakanganisika kwakadaro dambudziko guru? Ko nyika haikwanisi kungoenda kubva pane zvikwereti zvayo uye kutanga kutanga?
Zvinosuruvarisa, mhinduro haisi iyo iri nyore kune chimwe chikonzero chakakosha: mabhandi eEurope anoramba ari mumwe wevane vimbisi vedunhu rehurumende, kunyange vakaderedza nzvimbo dzavo mukati mehafu yepiri yegore ra2011. Bhenzi dzinodiwa kuchengetedza imwe nzvimbo yezvinhu pa mabheji avo ezviyero maererano nehuwandu hwechikwereti chavanobata. Kana nyika ichikanganiswa pane chikwereti chayo, kukosha kwezvisungo zvayo kuchazara. Kumabhangi, izvi zvinogona kureva kupera kwakakosha kwehuwandu hwezvinhu pane bhadharo ravo - uye zvichida kusvibiswa. Nokuda kwekuwedzera kwekubatana kwenyika yezvemari, kubhadhara kwebhangi hazviitiki muvharo. Panzvimbo pacho, pane mukana wekuti kukanganisa kwebhengi kunowedzera kune "zvinoparadza" kana kuti "domino effect".
Muenzaniso wakanakisisa weiyi ndiyo mhirizhonga yemari yeUnited States apo huwandu hwekugumburwa nedzimwe sangano rezvemari pakupedzisira hwakakonzera kukundikana kwaLehman Brothers uye hurumende kubhadhara kana kuti kutorwa kwechisimba kwevamwe vakawanda. Sezvo hurumende dzeEurope dziri kutotambudza nemari yavo, kune ruzivo rwakawanda rwehurumende rwokudzokera shure kwedambudziko iri kana ichienzaniswa neyo yakarova United States.
Izvo zveEurope chikwereti dambudziko chakakanganisa sei mari yemari?
Kubvira kwekupararira kwakaita kuti chikwereti cheEuropean chinetso chive chinhu chikuru pamisika yemari yenyika muna 2010-2012. Nekutengeswa kwemusika wegore ra2008 uye 2009 mukurangaridzika kwemazuva ano, vashandi vekutengesa kune mamwe mashoko akaipa kubva muEurope vakanga vachikurumidza: kutengesa chero chinhu chakaipa, uye kutenga mabhizimisi ehurumende emakona makuru, akawanda mune zvemari. Kazhinji, mabhanga eEurope mabhanga - uye misika yemuEurope sezvakazara - yakaita zvakanyanya kukunda kupfuura vamwe vavo pasi pose panguva iyo dambudziko raiva pakati pepakati. Iko kushambadzirwa kwemisika yenyika dzakagadzikanawo yakaita zvisina kunaka, sekukwira kwezvibereko kunoreva kuti mitengo inowira. Panguva imwecheteyo, zvinotengeswa kuUnited States Pfuma zvakasangana nehutsika hwehutsika pasi mukuratidzira kwevatengesi '" kutizira kune kuchengeteka ."
Pane imwe nguva Draghi akazivisa kuti kuzvipira kweEECB kuchengetedza eurozone, misika yakabatanidzwa munyika yose. Bond uye mararamiro ehutano munharaunda kubva panguva iyoyo yakadzokazve, asi nzvimbo iyo inoda kuratidzira kukura kwakasimba kuitira kuti rally ienderere mberi.
Ndezvipi nyaya dzezvematongerwo enyika dzakabatanidzwa?
Izvo zvezvematongerwo enyika zvehutambudziko zvaive zvakakura. Munyika dzakakanganiswa, iyo inoshandiswa kunotenderera-kana kudzvora mari yekuderedza kusiyana pakati pemari nemitambo-yakatungamirira kumararamiro evanhu muGreece neSpain uye mukubviswa kwesangano rine simba muItaly nePortugal. Pamusoro penyika, dambudziko racho rakaunza kukakavadzana pakati penyika dzakanaka, dzakadai seGermany, uye nyika dzakakwirira-dzakadai seGreece. Germany yakamanikidza kuGirisi nedzimwe nyika dzakagadzikana kuti dzigadzirise mararamiro semamiriro ezvinhu ekupa rubatsiro, zvichikonzera kukwidziridzwa kwakapfurikidza mukati meEuropean Union. Pashure pekukakavadzana kukuru, Greece yakagamuchira kubvisa mari uye kukwidza mitero. Zvisinei, chikonzero chakakosha pakugadzirisa dambudziko racho ndechokuda kweGermany kusabvumirana nehuwandu hwepakati penyika sezvo zvaizofanira kutsika chikamu chisingaverengeki chebhadharo.
Iyo mhirizhonga yakaita kuti zvigone kuti imwe kana dzimwe nyika dzeEurope dzichazosiya euro (iyo inowanikwa mari yakafanana). Kune rumwe rutivi, asiya euro inobvumira nyika kuti iite zvayo yakasununguka purogiramu panzvimbo yekuti iite pasi pehurumende yakafanana yemarudzi 17 achishandisa mari. Asi pane imwe, ingadai iri chiitiko chekusati chave chichikwaniswa kwehupfumi hwepasi pose uye mari yemari. Izvi zvakakonzera kushaya simba panguva dzino mu euro maererano nedzimwe mari huru munyika yose munguva yechirwere.
Iko mari yekusarura mhinduro yacho here?
Kwete hazvo. Kudzvinyirirwa kweGermany kwekutsvaga mari (yakakwirira mitero uye kuderedza mari shoma) matanho mumatunhu maduku emunharaunda aiva nechinetso mune izvo zvishoma zvakashandiswa mari yehurumende zvinogona kutungamirira kukura zvakanyanya, izvo zvinoreva kuti mitero yakaderera yematunhu kune nyika yokubhadhara mabhiriro avo. Nekudaro, izvi zvakaita kuti zvive zvakaoma kune dzimwe nyika dzechikwereti kuti dzicheke. Tarisiro yekuderedza mari yehurumende yakaita kuti zvipikiso zvevanhu zvive zvakanyanya uye zvakaita kuti zvive zvakaoma kune vatevedzeri kuti vatore matanho ose anodiwa kuti agadzirise dambudziko racho. Mukuwedzera, iyo yose nzvimbo yakasvikira mumatambudziko emunyika muna 2012 zvichienderana nechikamu chezviyero izvi uye kuraswa kwekutendeseka pakati pebhizimisi nevatengesi.
Kubva pane zvakajeka, nyaya iyi kuUnited States here?
Hongu - Nyika yezvemari inoshandiswa zvakakwana ikozvino-zvinoreva dambudziko kuGrisi, kana imwe nyika duku yeEurope inetso kune isu tose. IEuropean chikwereti dambudziko haisi kungogunzva chete misika yedu yezvemari asiwo mari yehurumende yeUnited States. Chikamu makumi mana kubva muzana cheMigodhi yeMitemo yeMarudzi (IMF) inobva kuUnited States, saka kana IMF ichifanira kuisa mari yakawandisa kumigodhi yekubhadhara, vateresi veUnited States vachazofanira kufamba netsoka. Mukuwedzera, chikwereti cheUnited States chiri kuramba chichikura zvakakura-zvinoreva kuti zviitiko muGreece neveEurope yose ndiyo chiratidzo chekuyeuchidza vatevedzeri veAmerica.
Ndeipi mafungiro ematambudziko?
Kunyange zvazvo mukana wekusakanganiswa kana kubuda kweimwe yenyika yeEurozone yakadzika zvikuru ikozvino kupfuura kutanga kwegore ra2011, dambudziko guru munharaunda yacho (kureva chikwereti chehurumende) rinoramba riri panzvimbo. Somugumisiro, mukana wekutsvaga kwehupfumi kune imwe nzvimbo - uye hupfumi hwepasi rose sehuwandu-huchiri kuvepo uye hunogona kuramba hwakadaro kwemakore akawanda.