Bond Market Inodzorera: Chii Chakatenda uye Chakanga Chisiri Muna 2013
Kunyange zvakadaro, vatengesi vakanga vachiri nemikana yakawanda yekuita mari muzvisungo . Kunyange zvazvo nguva refu-refu , yakakwirira-yepamusoro, uye zvikamu zvakawanda zvinotaridzika zvinotarisirwa pamusika zvakarasikirwa pasi, nzvimbo dzakawanda - pakati pavo zvikwereti zvakakura zvezvibereko, zvikwereti zvakakura, uye zvisungo zvenguva pfupi - vakapedzisa gore munharaunda yakanaka. Chigumisiro: mutyairi akakodzera zvakasiyana-siyana - kana kuti akasarudza kuwanika mumusika nemunhu mumwe nomumwe zvisungo pane mari yezvisungo - angave akatasva gore neguta risingakanganisi pasinei nechakwira kumusoro muHarare.
2013 Bond Market Dzorera Dhavhidha
Kudzoka kwezvikwata zvakasiyana-siyana zvemashoko akasiyana-siyana mukati mevashambadziro yevashambadziro ya2013 inotevera:
Sangano rekutsvaga mari yeUnited States (Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index ): -2.02%
Nenguva pfupi yeUnited States Treasury (Barclays US Year Government Government Index): 0.37% Pakati pemazuva eUnited States Pfuma (Barclays US Government Intermediate Index): -1.25%
Yenguva refu yeUnited States Treasury (Bhurclays US Government Long Index): -12.48%
MAZANO (Barclays US Treasury Inflation-Linked Bond Index): -9.26%
Kubhadhara-kunotsigirwa kuchengetedzwa (Barclays GNMA Index): -2.12%
Masangano eMaspala (Barclays Muni Bond Index): -2.55%
Bhizimisi dzehurumende (Barclays Corporate Investment Grade Index): -1.53%
Nguva yakareba yezvisungo zvesangano (Barclays Corporate Long Investment Grade Index): -5.68%
Mahombekiti ekukwirira (Credit Suisse High Yield Index): 7.53%
Senior Loans (S & P / LSTA Leveraged Loan Index): 5.29%
International government bonds (SPDR Barclays International Treasury Bond ETF): -3.59% Emerging market bonds (JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified Index): -5.25%
Onai kudzoka kwehuse hwe US USFs pano .
The 2013 Timeline
Kunyange zvazvo gore ra2013 richayeukwa segore rakaoma rechikwata chezvisungo, mwedzi mina yekutanga yegore yaive yakaipa. Kunyange sekunyeverwa pamusoro pekuuya kwekuderera muzvisungo zvakaramba zvichienderera mberi mumakambani emari, zvisungo zvakaramba zvakatsigirwa nehurumende ye US Federal Reserve mutemo, simba guru rekutsvaga mari, uye kusanganiswa kwekutsika kwezvishoma uye kukurumidza kukura.
Kubva musi waApril 30, mabhizimisi-mabhizinesi ezvisungo aiva munharaunda yakanaka uye inowanikwa pasi pe1% chete.
Izvi zvakagadziriswa shure zvakashandura pakarepo muna May apo Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke akaratidza kuti Fed inogona kunge ichangobva ku "taper" mutemo wayo wekugadzirisa zvishoma. Kuwedzera mafuta kumoto kwaiva zviratidzo zvekusimbisa hupfumi hwehupfumi, hwakatungamirirwa nekudzoka muAmerica misika yemari. Bhizimusi rehurumende rakashata zvakanyanya sezvo vashandi vakakurumidza kunotora mari vasati vatanga kubvisa mari yavo kubva kuMay 2 kusvika kuJune 25, kukohwa kwegore gumi kwakanyorwa kwakasvika kubva pa163 kusvika ku 2.59% - kushamisika kwekanguva kwakadaro nguva yenguva. (Ramba uchifunga, matengo uye zvibereko zvinotarisana nenzira dzakasiyana ). Izvi zvinokonzerwa nematope zvakakonzera kuparara kwakapinza mukati rose bhizimusi rekubatana, uye kunyange zvikamu izvo zvinowanzoratidza kuratidzika kwechido-kutaridzika kwekunzwa kutambura kwekurasikirwa kukuru.
Bhizimusi rechibvumirano rakaramba richikwira pasi mukati mezhizha, uye mutengo wemakore gumi pakupedzisira kubuda pa 2.98% musi waSeptember 5. Kubva pano, husungo hwakagadzira mwedzi miviri yemamende yakabhadharwa chikamu neChechi chisingazivikanwi musi waSeptember 18 kuti hazvingatomboiti kuti zvive nguva.
Izvi zvakararama kwenguva shoma, zvisinei, sezvibereko zvakare zvakatama zvakare munaNovember naDecember sezviratidzo zvekuvandudza kukura kwakagadzirwa kwenguva yakareba.
IFed yakaita-in-fact ichizivisa kugadzirwa kwayo kokutanga musi waDecember 18 apo yakaderedza hukuru hwehuwandu hwayo hwekugadzirisa purogiramu kubva pa $ 85 mabhiriyoni mumwedzi wekutengeswa kwekutengesa kusvika $ 75 biliyoni. Kunyange zvazvo maitiro ekutanga mumusika wezvisungo akazununguswa, kusanganiswa kwemashoko ekugadzirisa - pamwe chete nehuwandu hwehupfumi hwehupfumi - hutsvaga chibereko pamakore gumi ane makore gumi ne3 kubva pagore.
Itafura inotevera inoratidza huwandu hwezvibereko zveHurumende yezvisungo zvekusiyana kwakasiyana munguva yegore.
| 12/31/12 | 5/2/13 Low | 12/31/13 | |
| 2-Gore | 0.25% | 0.20% | 0.35% |
| 5-Gore | 0.73% | 0.65% | 1.75% |
| 10-Gore | 1.76% | 1.63% | 3.03% |
| 30-Gore | 2.95% | 2.83% | 3.96% |
Vanhu vanovhiringidza kubva kuBonds kusvika kuAsitendi
Chimwe chinhu chinokosha muzvisungo 'kusina simba kwakaratidza kwaiva hukuru hwemari yevatengesi mari kubva kubhandi mari uye nebatanidza ETFs . Mafashamo emari mitsva akanga apinda muchikwata chepfuma kubva muna 2010 na2012, uye zvichiita kuti vatyairi vakawanda havana kunzwisisa zvakajeka njodzi.
Kana imwe nguva mutengesi watanga kutendeukira kumaodzanyemba, vatengesi vanoita sehuwandu hwekuvhara mari yezvisungo.
Imwe Investment Company Institute inoshuma kuti mushure mokurasika $ 59.8 mabhiriyoni munaJune uye imwe $ 46.2 mabhiriyoni munaJuly neAgasti, mari yehutano yehurumende yakaramba ichirasikirwa nehupfumi kunyange mushure mokunge mutengesi uchingotanga kugadzikana: $ 11.6 mabhiriyoni munaSeptember, $ 15.6 mabhiriyoni munaOctober, uye kupfuura $ 19 biliyoni munaNovember. Izvi zvinoratidza kuti vatengesi vakaramba vachinetseka zvikuru pamusika wezvisungo kunyange mushure mokunge mumusika wakadzikama munaSeptember neOctober. Kwegore, inoti TrimTabs Investment Research, mari yezvisungo yakawana kudarika $ 86 mabhiriyoni mukutora. Izvi zvakabuda pamwe nemafashamo e $ 352 mabhiriyoni emari mitsva mumari yemashekiti, zvichiratidza kuti uprofita hwe 2012 hwe " Great Rotation " kubva kuzvisungo kumatoro ungangodaro wakanga uri pane.
Nguva Yenguva Yakareba Hit Hard; Asi Zvikwereti Zvenguva Pfupi Pedza Nezvipo
Sezvo tafura iri kumusoro inoratidza, zvisungo zvenguva refu zvakanyanya kuoma kudarika zviduku- uye zvepakati-nguva dzevamwe muna 2013. Chikonzero chekutanga chekugumburwa uku ndechokuti vatengesi vakaona kutengesa sekutyisa chete kusvika pakuguma kwekupedzisira kwezvibereko kubva kushamwaridzana kwenguva refu zvisungo zvakanyanyobatanidzwa kuFed's interest-rate policy . Sezvo Fed haina kutarisirwa kukwidza mitero kusvikira 2015 pakutanga, zvisungo zvenguva pfupi zvakachengetedzwa kubva mumatambudziko akarova mushamba wehutano mugore rapfuura. Izvi zvinoratidzirwa mukushanda kweVAT3 Vanguard ETFs inoshandisa muzvisungo zvekusiyana kwakasiyana:
| Fund | Itirai | 2013 Dzokera |
| Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF | BSV | 0.15% |
| Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond ETF | BIV | -3.59% |
| Vanguard Long-Term Bond ETF | BLV | -8.95% |
Chimwe chikonzero chinokosha chenguva refu yezvisungo 'pasi pechirongwa ndechokuti muchero wezvibereko wakawedzera mukati megore. Mune mamwe mazwi, zvibereko pazvisungo zvenguva refu zvakasimuka nokukurumidza kudarika zvibereko pahupfupi-zvisungo zvishoma, kuwedzera muchero wezvibereko pakati pezvikamu zviviri. Kunyange zvazvo musiyano pakati pemakore maviri nemakumi mashanu emari yezvivigiro zvakamira pa 1.51 peresenti yemapato musi waDecember 31, 2012, kupera kwacho kwawedzera kusvika ku 2.68 kubva muzana pamakore ekupedzisira kwa2013.
Kubhadhara Zvikwereti Zvikwereti uye Vashandi Vakuru Vakuru
Kunyange zvazvo zvisungo zvine hukuru hwekunaka kune huwandu hwekufambisa huwandu hunoitwa zvisina kunaka muna 2013, zvakafanana hazvikwanisi kutaurwa kune avo vane mutungamiriri mukuru wechikwereti . Bhuku rakawanda rezvibereko rakabhadharwa kushanda kunoenderana negore, zvichienderana nekubatana kwekuwedzera kwehupfumi , kuvandudza hutano hwemahombekiti epamusoro- kutengesa ' mabhizimusi , kushandiswa kwekuderera kwepamusoro , nekusimudzirwa kwezvitengo.
Mukuratidzira kwevatengi 'chido chekuisa njodzi, kuderedzwa kwepamusoro-kutengesa zvisungo zvisingaenzaniswi zvakachengetwa zvakachengetwa zvakanyanya mukati megore. Uyezve, kuwedzera kwehutano hwehupfumi ' kuderera kunzwisisika kune huwandu hwehuwandu hwehuwandu hwakaita kuti vave chinhu chinonakidza panguva yekushungurudza mumusika wemari.
Simba rekukohwa kwepamusoro rakaratidzwa mukurasika kwayo kuri kupararira -kana kubhadhara zvakanakisa-pamusoro peMariki munguva yegore. BhofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Master II Index yakapararira yakamira pa 4.00 peresenti yepamusoro (nheyo dzepamusoro) pamusoro peMariki musi waDecember 31, zvichienzaniswa ne 5.34 musi waDecember 31, 2012. Vakaderera gore racho vaiva 3.96, yakanyorwa musi waDecember 26 ne27.
Matanho makuru , kana zvikwereti mabhengi anoita mapoka ehurumende ndokubva avhara uye kutengesa kune vatengesi, akaitwawo zvakanaka. Vafari vemari vakakweverwa kune chikwata ichi chinowedzera chikonzero nekuda kwezvibereko zvayo zvakanaka uye maruva anokwira (akaonekwa pane pamwe panguva iyo zvibereko zvinowedzera). Vhudhi-mboti yakawanda yakabatsirwawo nemiganhu yakawanda yemari uye ETFs inoshandisa mari munzvimbo iyi, iyo inomirira kusiyana kwakasiyana kubva kumativi akawanda emusika.
Pfuma, Kubhadhara Grade Grade , uye MAZANO Lag
Kune rumwe rutivi rwemagetsi, zvibvumirano zvinonyanya kutarisana nehuwandu hwekufamba kwezvikwata zvakatora pachigunhi muna 2013. Zvinowedzera kuUnited States Mashekeri zvakasimudzirwa zvakanyanya sezvo mitengo yakawira, uye kurasikirwa kwakaipisisa kunoitika muzvisungo pamwe nekureba kwakakura. Uku kudengenyeka kwakapfuurira kuburikidza neHaimari Inflation Yakachengetedzwa Zvakachengetedzwa , kana mazano, ayo asina kuitika kwete nekusimudzirwa kwemari asiwo kuderedza kudiwa kwevatengesi kwekuchengetedzwa kwenyika.
Kusiyana neizvi, zvikwereti zvakabhadharwa (MBS) - chikamu chakakura mune zvakawanda zvemhuri bond index mari - yakarasikirwa negore asi yakapera mberi kwehurumende dzehurumende. MBS dzakabatsirwa nekuenderera mberi kwekutenga mari yekutengesa mari, sezvo $ 45 mabhiriyoni e $ 85 mabhiriyoni pamwedzi purogiramu yekutenga kusungira inotarisira zvikwereti zvakabhadhara-zvakatsigirwa.
Zvisungo zvehurumende zvakarasikirwa zvakare muna 2013. Kudengenyeka kunotungamirirwa zvachose nekuwedzera kweHaigari kunobereka, zvichienderana nekuti zvikwereti zvemakampani zvakapararira pamusoro pePfuma zvakakanganiswa muna 2013. BofA Merrill Lynch US Corporate Master Index yakatanga gore nemuchero unobatsira ye 1.54 kubva muzana, uye yakamira pa 1.28 musi waDecember 31. Kupararira kwaive kwakasimba kudarika gore, nepamusoro pe 1.72, yakagumburwa musi waJune 24, asi chikwata chema 1.28 chakaisa pasi. Kupera kwezvibereko zvinopararira - pamwe nekushaikwa kwayo kwekusagadzikana - kunobatsira kuratidza kuvimba kwevatengi mune hutano hweComerica America, sezvinoratidzwa mukutsvaga mubhadharo kukura uye mabhizimisi ane simba.
Simba iri pasi pemusika rakaratidzwawo nehuwandu hwakawanda hwehutano hwekushandira hurumende nehurumende dzakanga dzichitsvaga kushandisa zvidhori. Nhamba yezvokuda yaifananidzirwa nekukwanisa kweVerizon kubhadhara $ 49 mabhiriyoni mune chikwereti chitsva munguva yekota yechitatu uye vachiri nekutengesa pamusoro pekubhadhara (zvinoreva kuti pane zvakawanda zvaidiwa kupfuura kutengeswa pasinei nekukura kwechibvumirano). Maererano neWall St. Journal, kambani dzeUnited States-dzekutsvaga mabhizimusi dzakatengesa madhora 1,111 trillion emabhandi muna 2013, nhoroondo itsva.
Kunyange zvakadaro, izvi zvakakosha zvinhu zvakanga zvisina kukwana kugadzirisa kukonzerwa nekukwira kweHaimari yehupfumi kwakapiwa makambani ekukwirirana nehurumende yezvisungo.
Kuparara muPfuma, mazano, MBS, uye makambani kunobatsira kuratidza pfungwa inokosha: " high quality " hazvireve kuti "kuchengeteka" kamwe chete zvinotanga kubuda.
Municipalals Pressured NeAdvers Headlines uye Fund Outflows
Gore rakaratidzawo kuti rakaoma kune avo vakaiswa mumasungwa emasungwa. Bhuku rekutsvaga mari yepamusoro- svondo rakasimudzirana nevanosungirirwa navo muna 2013, uye kukohwa kwakanyanya munis kwakakonzera kupfupika kwekudzoka kwehuwandu hwehutano hwehutano. Sezvakange zvakaitawo mune imwe nzvimbo yemusika wezvisungo, nguva yakareba-kukura zvakashata zvakashata.
Chinhu chinonyanya kukosha pamasungwa ehurumende chakanga chiri, hongu, iyo nyoka yakajeka muhurumende yehutano yezvibereko yakaitika mukati megore nechando. Kunze kweizvi, zvisinei, munis akatarisana nemamwe mavhesi akawedzerwa neDetroit's bankruptcy, zvinetso zvePoerto Rico, uye kusava nechokwadi kwakabatana nemaonero ekushandiswa kwehurumende. Pamwe chete, izvi zvakakonzera kuti zvive zvisinganzwisisiki zvemahofisi ehurumende mari. Sangano reInvestment Company Institute rinotarisa kuti matareji ehurumende yemadhora anosvika $ 82 mabhiriyoni kubva muJune kusvika munaOctober, kuchinja kunoshamisa kubva kunenge madhora madhora makumi mashanu emadhora ayo akadururirwa mumari yakadaro muna 2012. Izvi zvakamanikidza vatevedzeri vemari kuti vatengese zvigaro zvavo kuti vawane kusunungurwa, kuwedzera kudonha.
Pasinei nezviitiko izvi, nheyo dzepasitadhi yakasara dzinoramba dziri dzakanaka, uye kuwedzera mitero yemitero yehurumende nehurumende dzomunharaunda, zvisizvo zvakashata , uye zvibereko zvinowanikwa mumatongerwe enyika zvakanyanya maererano nezvisungo zvinotengesa.
International Markets Flat, But Currencies Weigh
Vashandi vemari vaitora zvishoma kubva pakusiyanisa zvikwata zvavo zvekubatana kune dzimwe nyika kunze kwegore ra2013. Sangano rekubatana kwepasi rose, seboka, rakapedza gore rakapera sezvo kupfuma kwakasimba mumari shoma dzeEurope dzakadai seSpain neItaly zvakakanganiswa nekushaya simba mumisika huru kana Canada neUnited Umambo.
Vashandi veUS-based zvisinei vakapedza gore muvhudzi nekuda kwekushaya simba mune mari dzedzimwe nyika kudarika US $. Kunyange zvazvo chikamu chisiri chechiAmerica cheJP Morgan Global Government Bond Index chakadzoka 1.39% mumitemo yemari yemunharaunda muna 2013, yakawa 5.20% kana ichienzaniswa mumadhora eUS (kuburikidza neDecember 27). Zvikwereti zvakakura zvikuru zvekudzoka pakati penharaunda-mari uye madhora-mahedheni akadzoka akaitika muJapan, Australia, neCanada, iyo yose iyo yakaona mari yavo inopesana nedhora. Somugumisiro, zvikwereti zvehurumende zvisiri zvehurumende zvisingabatanidzwi zvakapedzisa gore munharaunda isina kunaka.
Emerging Markets Anotarisana neMusoro Wemusoro
Emerging market bonds zvakare yakavharwa muna 2013 mune zvitsvuku, asi zvese kudengenyeka kwakaitika muna May-June selloff.
Munguva ino, vatengesi vakabuda muatsetsi mumapoka sezvo kuwedzera kweHarare zvibereko zvakakonzera vatengesi kurasikirwa nechido chavo chekuda. Izvo zvikwereti zvinokonzera zvikwereti zvakakonzerwawo nekukura kwekuwedzera-kudarika-kutarisirwa mumisika huru yakadai seIndia, Brazil, neRussia, pamwe nekufunganya nguva nenguva pamusoro pezvinogona kuitika "kuoma kwakaoma" muChina chepfumi. Uyezve, kuwedzera kwekumanikidzika kwemugorosi kwakakonzera mazita emabhanki makuru anotengesa mabhizimusi ekutanga kutengesa matanho - kuchinja kubva murefu wenguva yekuderedza kwakaitwa kubva muna 2008-2012. Zvakatorwa pamwechete, izvi zvinokonzera kubuda kwemashamba mabhizimisi kupedzisa negore ravo rakaipisisa kubvira muna 2008 matambudziko emari.
Chikamu chakaoma zvikuru-chakatorwa chesi yefasi yeasset chaive chikwereti chemari yemunharaunda (zvakasiyana nemamwe akabatanidzwa mu US dollars). Kubhururuka kwevanhu vakuru kunobatsira kushaya simba mukukosha kwevakawanda mari vanobuda mari kubva kune varairidzi vanotengesa zvisungo kune imwe nyika vanofanirawo kutengesa mari kuti vaite saizvozvo. Somugumisiro, kushandiswa kwemari-kweruzhinji kwakamanikidzwa munzira mbiri: kutanga, nekukosha kwekuwa kwezvisungo pachavo, uye chechipiri, nekukosha kwekuwa kwemari. Muna 2013 huchenjeri hweMiti Inoshandiswa Kwemari Mahara Local Debt Fund (ELD) yakadzoka -10.76%, pasi pe -7.79% kudzoka kweEEM.
Kune rumwe rutivi rwey equation, mabhizimisi emakambani anotanga kushanda akachengetwa zviri nani pane imwe nheyo, sezvakaratidzwa mu -3.24% kudzoka kweWerdomTree Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Fund (EMCB). Emerging corporates inopa kupa zvibereko zvakakwirira uye kuderera kwechido-kutarisa kunzwisisika kupfuura nzvimbo dzakawanda dzeushambadziro hwebhizimisi, uye dzinowanzovawo dzakasununguka kubva kune dzakawanda zvinotambudza izvo zvakatanga kutengesa misika yehurumende yehurumende, zvakadai sokusimudzirwa kwekuwedzera kwezvinhu uye kuperevedza kwezvokutengeserana. Ichi chikamu chemusika hachizogoni kushandiswa pakuchinja kwevaiti vekutsvaga mari, asi muna 2013 yakaratidza unhu hwepamusoro-hwekukwanisa kumira huripo huchikwira huripo.
Chii Chinotevera kweBond Market?
Kutarisa kumashure kwaisazozadziswa pasina kutarisa mberi. Dzvanya pano nokuda kweBond Market Outlook ya2014 , uye ona maonero ezvimwe zvikwata zvepasisi pazvikwata zviri pasi apa:
Corporate Bonds
Kukurukurira Zvakakwirira Zvikwereti
Emerging Market Bonds
Zvinonzwisisika : Mashoko ari pawebsite ino anopa zvinangwa zvekukurukurirana chete, uye haafaniri kutorwa semazano ekutsvaga mari. Pasinei nemamiriro ezvinhu iyo ruzivo runomiririra hutungamiri kutenga kana kutengesa zvigumisiro. Nguva dzose taurirana nemudzidzisi wekutsvaga mari uye muteresi wezvemitero usati waita mari.