A flat bearing yield curve inogona kuratidza kuderera kwehupfumi hwehupfumi
Iko Rokuberekera Rutsva: Kuongorora
Chibereko chekuvhara ndeyechibereko chekuzvisunga kwega kwega kune chikwata chakakura chinorongwa pane grafu.
Inopa mufananidzo wakajeka, unooneka wepanguva yakareba nekusungwa kwenguva pfupi panguva dzakasiyana-siyana munguva.
Muchero wekurima unowanzokwira kumusoro nokuti vatengi vanoda kubhadharwa nezvibereko zvakakwirira zvekutora mungozi inowedzera yekutsvaga mari muhutano hurefu . Ramba uchifunga mupfungwa dzako kuti kuwedzera musungo kunobatsira kutengesa kwemazana uye zvakasiyana.
A flat bearing yield curve inoratidza kuti zvishoma, kana zviripo, musiyano uripo pakati penguva pfupi uye kwenguva yakareba mitengo yezvisungo uye zvinyorwa zvehutano hwakafanana.
Izvo zvinotungamirirwa nehuwandu hwezvibereko mune imwe nzvimbo inofanirwa kufarira inharaunda inowanzoenzaniswa nekuenzanisa zvibereko pamakore maviri ne10, asi musiyano pakati pe federal money rate uye makore gumi-makore inowanzoshandiswawo zvakare.
Chii Chinosimudza Chinozadza Curve?
Icho chinangwa chemuti we flattening yield curve chiri chakanaka. Muchero wekurima flattens-kureva kuti, unoratidzika sehupamhi-apo musiyano pakati pezvibereko kune zvenguva pfupi zvisungo uye zvibereko pazvisungo zvenguva refu zvinoderera.
Heino muenzaniso. Ngatitaurire mhesi yemakore maviri iri pa 2.00 muzana muna Jan. 2, uye remakore gumi-nheti ndeye 3.00 muzana panguva iyoyo. Musi waFebruary 1, chikamu chemakore maviri chinobereka 2.10 muzana apo makore gumi anogadzira 3.05 muzana. Misiyano yakabva kubva ku1 kubva muzana kusvika kune 0,95 peresenti yemapato, zvichiita kuti pave nemapapiro emichero.
Nei Chibereko Chiri Kupera Flatten?
A flattening yield curve inogona kuratidza kuti zvinotarisirwa zvekuwedzera kwemazuva ano zviri kuwira. Vashandi vanoda mari yakakwirira yakareba kwenguva yakareba kuti iite nokuda kweiyo yakarashika nokuti kuwedzera kwezvinhu kunoderedza kukosha kwemazuva ano kwekutsvaga. Iyi premium inoderera apo inflation isinganyanyi kunetseka.
A flattening yield curve inogonawo kuitika mukufungidzira kuderera kwehupfumi hwehupfumi . Dzimwe nguva mhirizhonga inoputika apo nguva pfupi inosimuka pachitarisiko chekuti Federal Reserve ichasimudza mari inowanikwa .
Chii Chisinganzwisisiki Chinowedzera Mucherechedzo?
Pazviitiko zvisingawanzoiti kana muchero wenguva inosvika kune imwe nguva kuti nguva shomanana yepamutengo yakakwirira kudarika nguva yakareba, mazamu anonzi "akachinjwa." Kare, mutambo unopindurwa unowanzotangira nguva yekuderera. Vashandi vanozobvumira zvishoma pasi zvino kana vachidavira kuti mitero ichakurumidza kuwira pasi munguva yemberi.
Inverted yield yield curves yakaitika pazvikamu zvisere chete kubva muna 1958. Upfumi hwakapinda muhupfumi mukati memakore maviri ekuderedzwa kwekukohwa kwevhizha kupfuura makumi maviri neatatu emunguva yacho.
Chii Chinoburitsa Mhanje?
Kusiyana pakati pezvibereko pane zvenguva pfupi zvisungo uye zvisungo zvenguva refu zvinowedzera apo chibereko chinowedzera.
Kuwedzera kwepakati iyi kunowanzoratidza kuti zvibereko pazvisungo zvenguva refu zviri kukura zvakakurumidza kudarika zvinowanikwa pamisungo yenguva pfupi, asi dzimwe nguva zvinogona kureva kuti nguva pfupi yekushambadzira kwehutano iri kuwira kunyange sekuwedzerwa kwenguva yakareba.
Semuenzaniso, funga kuti gore remakore maviri raive pa 2.00 muzana pana Jan. 2, uye makore gumi aiva pa 3.00 muzana. Musi waFebruary 1, chikamu chemakore maviri chinobereka 2.10 muzana apo makore gumi anogadzira 3.20 muzana. Misiyano yakabva kubva ku1 kubva muzana kusvika ku110 kubva muzana, uye zvichiita kuti pave nemafuta akawanda .
Chibereko chinoramba chichiratidza zvinoratidza kuti vatengesi vanotarisira kuwedzera kuwedzera kwezvinhu uye kusimba kwehupfumi hwehupfumi.
Ko Muchengeti Anogona Sei Kubatsirwa Nechimiro Chinochinja cheRudzi Rwokuberekwa?
Funga nezvezvibereko zvekurima sechimwe chinhu chekristol ibhola, kunyange isiri iyo inonyatsosimbisa mhinduro.
Ipai mazano ekupa varimi vamwe ruzivo rwakakosha mune zvingave kwenguva pfupi yezvibereko zvekuda uye kuwedzera kwehupfumi. Kushandiswa zvakanaka, vanogona kupa utungamiri, asi havasi mazwi.
Inobhadhara mari yakawanda yevashandi kuti varambe vakagadzikana, kwenguva refu kwenguva yakareba zvichienderana nezvinangwa zvakasiyana pane nyaya dzehupfumi dzakadai sechinoshanduka chibereko chekuvhara. Asi vatengesi venguva pfupi vanokwanisa kubatsirwe kubva kuchinjeka mumutengo wekurima nekutenga chimwe chezvinhu zviviri zvekutengesa-kutengeserana : iPath US Treasury Flattener ETN (FLAT) uye iPath US Treasury Steepener ETN (STPP).
Zvose izvi zviduku uye dzine zvishoma zvokutengeserana-izvo zvinowanzova zvisina kukanganisa-asi zvinopikira nzira yekuratidza maonero pamusoro pekukanganiswa pakati pemitambo yenguva pfupi uye yakareba.