Kubhadhara Kwekubhadhara Kwako Hamuna Kumbonzwa Nekupararira Kuputika kuburikidza neEconomy
Chikwereti chekwereti chakanga chatanga.
Apo nhoroondo yekupedzisira yedambudziko iri yakanyorwa, zvingangodaro kuti tichava nemurangariro uri nani wezvakanyatsoitika zvakashata.
Asi kunyange iko zvino zvinoratidzika pachena kuti chikwereti chepasi rose chematambudziko 'nhamo hachina kutanga mumakethe emumba semuyo mutengo weCDO wa2007.
Chii chinonzi Chikwereti Chekubhadhara Chikwereti?
Saka chii chaicho, chaizvoizvo, CDO? Uye chimwe chinhu chingave chakakanganiswa nemuwandu weAmerica, kunyange nhasi, chinokonzera dambudziko guru rezvemari?
Zviri nyore kubvunza mibvunzo iyo kupfuura kupindura. Asi ngatiedzei.
Zvikwereti zvakakonzerwa nezvikwereti zvakasikwa muna 1987 nevabhengi kuDrexel Burnham Lambert Inc. Mumakore gumi, maCDO ainge ave simba guru mune izvo zvinonzi mavhizimusi emisika, umo kukosha kwekuwanikwa kwakaitwa "kubva" kukosha kwevamwe assets. Asi zvakasiyana nezvimwe zvakananga zvakajeka zvakadai sekusarudza, kudana uye chikwereti chinokanganisa swaps , maCDO akanga asingachagoneki kuti munhu akaenzana anzwisise (heck, shure apo ndakanga ndiri mhariri paBloomberg News, mubati wangu akatitungamirira pane mhemberero yemisangano ne Wall Mugwagwa uri mumugwagwa muedza, kunyanya kusabudirira, kuwana mumwe munhu kutsanangurira zvakanyanya kumativi emakona ematokiti anobva kwatiri.)
Uye imomo yaiva dambudziko.
MaCDO akanga asiri "chaiwo." Vakanga vachivaka. Uye mumwe aigona kukakavadzana, vaive vachivaka kuvaka yakavakwa kune dzimwe dzivakwa.
Mune CDO, bhajeti yekutsvaga mari yakaunganidza zvinhu zvakasiyana-siyana-kazhinji zvakasununguka zvakasununguka zvisungo, zvikwereti zvakabhadharwa-zvikwereti , zvikwereti-swa swa uye nezvimwe zvakanyanya kutyisa, zvakanyanya-kutengesa zvinhu kubva pamusika unogadziriswa.
Bhengi rekutsvaga kwekutsvaga ndokubva raumba sangano rekushandira - CDO - iyo yaizogovera kushamba kwemari kubva kune iyo midziyo kuvashambadziri muCDO.
Izvo zvinonzwika nyore. Asi pano ndiyo inobata: CDOs dzakatengeswa sezvikwereti zvine dambudziko rinotsanangurwa uye mubayiro. Mune mamwe mazwi, kana iwe wakatenga imwe waizoziva kuti mari yakawanda yaunogona kutarisira sei mukutsinhana kwekutengesa guta rako. Mabhengi emari ekugadzirisa ayo aive achiumba maCDO akavaratidza semari yekuisa mari iyo izvo zvinhu zvinokosha zvaisava izvo zvakasikwa. Pane kudaro, kiyi yeCDOs yaiva kushandiswa kwemathematical kuverenga kusika nekuparadzira kushamba kwemari. Mune mamwe mazwi, nheyo yeCDO yakanga isiri chikwereti, chibvumirano kana kunyange yakagadzirwa - yakanga iri metrics uye zvigadziriswe zvevants uye vatengesi. Kunyanya, motokari yeCDO yakasimbiswa muna 2001 nekugadzirwa kwemaitiro ainzi Gaussian Copula, iyo yakaita kuti zvive nyore kutengesa maCDO nokukurumidza.
Asi chii chakaita sechimwe simba guru reCDOs - maitiro akaoma akachengetedzwa pamusana pekuisa njodzi asi achiita kudzoka kwakakwirira - akave asina kukanganisa. Nokuti sezvo kazhinji zvichiitika paWall Street, takadzidza nenzira yakaoma kuti varume vakachenjera kupfuura vose vari mumba vanowanzova mbeveve.
Kumusoro kweSlope
Pakutanga kwa2007, Wall Street yakatanga kunzwa manzwiro ekutanga muCDO world. Kusiyana kwakange kuchikwira mumusika wekutengesa. Uye maCDO akawanda aisanganisira zvivako zvakavakwa pazvikwereti zvemari - kusanganisira ngozi, subprime mortgages.
Hedge fund mameneja, mabhizimisi ezvokutengeserana uye mabhizimusi, uye mari yepensheni, iyo yose yaive yakawanda vatengi veCDOs, vakazviwana ivo mumatambudziko. Zvinhu zviri pamucheto weCDOs zvaienda pasi. Zvinonyanya kukosha, mathemoni maitiro ayo aifanirwa kuchengetedza vatengesi pamusoro pengozi akanga asiri kushanda.
Kuomesa nyaya ndechokuti pakange pasina maranho kuti atengese maCDO. CDOs hadzisi kutengeswa pakugoverana. CDOs hazvina kunyatsogadzirwa kuti dzishandiswe zvachose. Kana iwe wakanga uine imwe muhofisi yako, hauna zvakawanda zvaungaita kuti udzikinure.
Vatungamiri veCDO vakanga vakafanana zvakasungwa.
Sezvo kutya kwakatanga kupararira, mushamba weCDOs 'hutsika huripo hwakatangawo kupera. Nenguva isipi zvakanga zvisingakwanisi kurasa swaps, subprime-mortgage derivatives nezvimwe zvivimbiso zvakachengetwa neCDOs.
Kuwa
Pakuvamba kwa2008, dambudziko reCDO rakange rakaita sechinhu chatinodaro chinonzi chikwereti chekwereti.
Sezvo mutengesi weCCDO wakagumburwa, zhinji yematokari yakagadzirwa yakawira pamwe chete nayo. Hedge mari yakapetwa. Chikwereti-kuongororwa masangano, ayo akange asingakwanisi kunyevera Wall Street yezvipingamupinyi, akaona mukurumbira wavo wakakuvara zvikuru. Mabhangi uye dzimba dzechikwereti zvakasara zvichitsvaga kuti dziwedzere mari yavo.
Zvadaro, muna March 2008, zvishoma kudarika gore pashure pekutanga kwezviratidzo zvekutambudzika mumusika weCDO, zvisingafungidzike zvakaitika. Bear Stearns, imwe yemakambani makuru eWall Street uye akakurumbira, yakawa.
Pakupedzisira, kuparara kwakapararira kusvika apo makambani ehushuwarisi ehurumende aive nekodzero dzekwereti dzadzoka (kusika imwe dambudziko mumusika wezvisungo); state regulators yakamanikidza kuchinja kwokuti chikwereti chakaverengerwa sei, uye vamwe vevaduku vakanyanya mumatokari emakwereti vakaderedza matanda avo mubhizimisi kana kuti vakabuda mumutambo zvachose.
Pakati pegore ra2008, zvakajeka kuti hapana munhu akachengeteka. Sezvo guruva rakagadziriswa, vaongorori vakatanga kuongorora kuora. Uye zvakava pachena kuti munhu wose - kunyange avo vakanga vasina kumbobvira vaine mari mune chimwe chinhu-vaizopedza kubhadhara mutengo.