Morgan Stanley's 10 Economic in Risk from China
Mushure mokunge China yakashamiswa kuongorora kwehuan pakati pegore ra2015, Morgan Stanley vatsvakurudzi vakaratidza dzimwe nyika gumi dzingatarisana nezvinetso zviri mberi. Bloomberg akagadzira aya "Troubled Ten" uye anosanganisira Colombia, Chile, Peru, South Korea, Thailand, Russia , Singapore, Taiwan, Brazil, uye South Africa. Idzi nyika dzakanyanya kutengeserana nekutengeserana kunze kweChinese uye inogona kuva yakanyanya kunetswa kuhondo yemari.
Muchikamu chino, tichatarisa kune avo vanonzi vakatambudzwa gumi uye kana vatengi vemarudzi ose vanofanira kudzivisa nyika idzi.
Kungoti-Kutengesa Kunotengesa
China inomiririra nzvimbo inotumira kune dzimwe nyika kune imwe yenhamo yeT Troubled Ten, kusanganisira inenge 40% yeZouth Africa inotengeswa kunze uye 30% yeZouth Korea inotengeswa kunze kwegore muna 2014. Nevakuru vakuru vechiChinese vanotora matanho makuru ekusimudzira hupfumi, kusanganisira matongerwo emakero emari, kuderedza chido chekuda, uye kuenzanisa kwemari , kune kuwedzera kunetseka kuti dambudziko rezvematongerwo enyika rinogona kunge rakanyanya kukura kupfuura vazhinji vezvematongerwo enyika vanotarisirwa.
Vakawanda veHatmed Ten vanotengesa zvinhu zvakafanana neChina kune vatorwa vokunze munyika yose. Nehuwandu hwakadzika huri pasi hwehuji, zvinhu zveChinese zvichange zvakadhura kune vatengi ava uye kuisa dambudziko kuT Troubled Ten kuti vagozvipira mari yavo pachavo kana kuti pangozi yekuderedza kutengesa uye kuwedzera kwehupfumi.
Aya masimba anogona kutungamirira kumashamba emabhizimisi anotanga kubuda ari kutotanga kuitika munzvimbo dzakadai seKazakhstan.
Nhau dzakanaka ndezvokuti dzakawanda dzezvipingamupinyi izvi zvakaderedzwa kupinda muna 2017. Uchina hwehupfumi hwave huri kuwedzera huri nani-kupfuura-hunotarisirwa kukura uye kunetseka pamusoro pemumvuri wemahombekombe ayo akave akadzivirirwa nepamusoro ekukweretesa mitemo. Zvisinei, pane zvimwe zviitiko zvakakosha zviripo uye varimi vanofanira kuramba vachiziva kugona kwenyika uye maitiro ekusimudzira kukura kwakasimba.
Kupararira Guta
Zvinonzi Troubled Gumi zvingave zviri kutarisana nehuwandu hwezvipingamupinyi zvinotaridzirwa neFragile Five zvakare muna 2013, sezvo mararamiro akabudirira anotarisa kukwidziridza chido chekuda. NeSweden Reserve mairi, mutengo unogona kukwezva kubva kune dzimwe nyika dzinotanga kubuda pakarepo purogiramu, sezvo US dollar inowedzera kuwedzerwa pasi rose. Mazhinji emakwenzi ari kubuda anotadza kugadzirirwa nekuda kwekushandurwa uku kwakapiwa kuvimba kwavo kune dzimwe nyika mari yekuwedzera.
Iko kudonha kwakakosha kwezvinhu zvakagadzirisa zvakare vazhinji veT Troubled Gumi iyo inopfuura-kuwandisa kwekuratidza. Semuenzaniso, Peru ndiyo inonyanya kutengesa kunze kwemhangura, nemitengo yemhangura inowira anenge 20% pakati paJanuary naAgust ra 2015 oga.
Kushambadzira munyika iyi kwakawa pamwe chete nemutengo wemari yakapiwa zvishoma nezvishoma kutarisira kwebatsiro, izvo zvakakonzera kushandiswa kwemari yenyika uye zvehupfumi.
Nhau dzakanaka ndeyokuti Federal Reserves rutsoka rwekuwedzera kwechirwere ichi chave chichireruka, izvo zvakapa hupfumi nguva yekugadzirisa. Panguva imwecheteyo, hupfumi hweChina huri kukura hwakatsigira mutengo wemari inofamba muna 2017 uye mberi. Kufambiswa kweEuropean Central Bank (ECB) kusunungura zvirongwa zvayo zvekubhadhara mari, zvisinei, zvingaita kuti zvishoma nezvishoma zvikwereti zvekukweretesa mari zvive zvishoma munharaunda yekupedzisira ye 2017 ne 2018.
Kufunga nezvekutsvaga
Dambudziko reTinbled rine zvakawanda zvoupfumi pamusoro pekuuya, sezvo vachiedza kurwisana uye kutengesa kuChina, uye pamwe nekuderera kwehupfumi. Somugumisiro, vatengesi vemarudzi akawanda vangada kuchenjerera pavanoisa mari mumari gumi idzi, asi zvichida vachivhara chero kuvepo kwavanenge varipo kune zvavanenge vawana, pamwe nekusarudzwa kwemari, mahedheni, mahedheni, kana zvimwe zviyero zvakafanana.
Key Takeaway Points
- Morgan Stanley's Fragile Five ave achiwedzerwa kusvika kune vane Troubled Gumi mushure mekutsvaga kwekuchina kwechina kweYan uye zvayo zvinoshandiswa pamusoro pehupfumi hwepasi rese.
- Zvinonzi Troubled Gumi zvinoratidzwa nekutengeserana kwavo kuChina uye zvinetso zvingangodaro zvinosangana nehuwandu hwemotokari inotevera huwandu hwemari muAmerica
- Vashandi vemunyika yose vangave vachida kujekesa mari iyi uye hupfumi kusvikira mufananidzo wehupfumi unowedzera zvakajeka pamusoro pemakore anotevera.