Chii Chinokanganisika Chishanu?

Zvitanhatu Zvishambadziro Zvokutengeserana Zvikwereti Zvichienderana Nekutsvaga Kwedzimwe Nyika

Haisi chakavanzika chokuti vaongorori vezvemari vane rudo rwezvinyorwa, pasinei nokuti vari kureva PE ratios kana EBITDA. Nyaya inonyanya kuzivikanwa pakati pevatengesi vemarudzi akawanda ndeyeGoldman Sach's Jim O'Neill's BRICs, iyo inomiririra hupfumi hukuru hunotengeserana hupfumi - Brazil, Russia, India, uye China. Asi, kune mamwe akawanda mazita anove akakurumbira uye anogona kubatsira vanoita mari.

Muchikamu chino, tichatarisa zvakanyanya paFragile Five uye apo izvi zvakasununguka zvinogona kutungamira mumakore anotevera.

Chii Chinokanganisika Chishanu?

Kushungurudza Five izwi rakagadzirwa munaAugust of 2013 nemumwe muongorori wezvemari kuMorgan Stanley kuti anomiririra hupfumi hwemari inotanga kuve yakave yakawedzerwawo kune mari isingatendwi kune dzimwe nyika kuti iwane mari yekuda. Izwi racho rinotevera mushure mutsva wevatsvakurudzo maitiro akabatwa kwemakore ose, kusanganisira BRICS yaJoy O'Neill uye MINTS mazita.

Sezvo hurumende inoyerera ichibva mumakona ekubudirira kumakambani akabudirira, mazhinji emari yavo yakawana utera hwakakosha uye yakaita kuti zvive nyore kubhadharira kukanganisa kwekodha ikozvino. Kushayikwa kwekutsvaga kwekutsvaga kwakaitawo kuti zvibvirire kubhadhara mishonga yakawanda yekukura, iyo yakaita kuti kuderedzwa kwehupfumi hwavo. Izvi zvakagadzira zvinogona kuitika kune dzimwe dzipfumi dzekugadzirisa.

Nhengo shanu dzeFragile Five dzinosanganisira:

• Teki
• Bhuraziri
• India
• Chamhembe Afrika
• Indonezhiya

Capital Flows muna 2013 & 2014

Izwi rokuti Fragile Five rakagadziriswa mukupindura kwehupfumi hwepasi rose pakati pe2011 na2014.

Mushure mekuwanda kwehupfumi hwakagadziriswa muna 2008, hupfumi hwematongerwo enyika huchibva huchikwevera huwandu hwekutsvaga mari nekuda kwekukura kwavo kwakasimba. Iri guru raishandiswa munzvimbo dzakasiyana-siyana dzezvematongerwo enyika kuti riwedzere kukura kwehuwandu. Semuenzaniso, mapurogiramu matsva emigodhi akatorwa kune avo vakashandisa nhamba yevanhu uye makambani munzvimbo.

Kubudirira kwakazotevera mumakambani akabudirira kwakakonzera zvakawanda zveguta guru iri uye rakaguma nekutsvaga mari kune dzimwe nyika kune dzimwe nyika mumashamba ekubuda. Yakagadziriswa hupfumi, yakafanana neyeUnited States, yakatumira kudzoka kwakasimba muna 2013. US Federal Reserve yakasarudzawo kutora purogiramu yekutengesa bhadha uye kusimudzira mutengo wezvibereko, izvo zvakaguma nemari yakawanda yeUnited States neyekubuda kwemari yemari. Aya masimba akaunza nhamba inowedzera yevatengesi kuti vatengese mari inotengeswa yemarike uye vaende kuDHS.

Izwi iri kubva rakaparidzirwa kusvika kune Troubled Ten sezvo United States inowanikwa nehuwandu hwechikwata chechirongwa yakakonzera kushungurudzika pakati pekunonoka kutengesa misika.

Kushungurudzika Kwemashoko mashanu Anooneka

Mukutanga kwegore ra2014, Argentina yakashandura mari yayo yakanyanyisa kuderera mukusagadzikana kwemazano emhuri uye kuwedzera kwehuwandu hwekuwedzera . Nyika yacho yakatengesa zvinodarika 8% zvekuchengetedza kwayo kunze kwegore raJanuary ra2014 zvichiita kuti hurumende yepamusoro yebhanga isvike pamatunhu ayo akaderera kubva munaOctober 2006. Kunyange zvazvo Argentina isiri nhengo yeFragile Five, kuderera kwavo kwakaita kuti misika inotanga kubuda ichitengesa iyo chakaitika shure kwekuwa. Sezvo vatengesi vakatanga kutengesa kubuda kwemari yemari uye kutamira mu US dollars, chikamu mukupindura kweUnited States Federal Reserve tapering, inobuda misika yemari yemari yakatanga kukanganisa kukosha uye mari yekutengesa yakatanga kubuda.

Kushungurudza Misika mitanhatu seTurkey yakapindura nenzira inoshamisa inotora chikwereti chayo chechibereko pamusangano wepakati pekupedzisira wehusiku hwematongerwo enyika kuitira kuti dzivirire mari yayo asi kutama kwaita zvishoma kuderedza dambudziko racho. Yakanganisa Nyika shanu dzakadai seTurkey dzakatenderera kune dzimwe nyika dzekutsvaga kuti dzidzose mari dzavo dzekutsvaga ikozvino. Kuwedzera kwezvibereko zvinogonawo kuva nemigumisiro yakawanda yezvakaipa pamusana pekutengesa kutengeserana kwemari. Somuenzaniso, huwandu hwemari inokwidziridzwa inokwidza mutoro wechikwereti kune zvikwereti uye inogona kutungamirira kumakumbo mune zvebhizimisi mabhizimisi. Aya masimba anogona kuramba achiodza mwoyo kubudirira kwehupfumi kuburikidza nekubvisa mari.

Ikoko Vanokanganisika Vashanu Vari Kutungamirirwa

The Fragile Five yakauya muna 2013 uye yakasangana nekutya muna 2014. Muna 2015, mazai aya akawana kuderera kunoramba kuripo sezvo huwandu hunoyerera kubva mumashamba ekubuda uye mumisika yakagadzirwa.

Morgan Stanley vatsvakurudza vakagadzirisa Fragile Five kune Troubled Ten pakati pemwedzi wa2015 mukupindura kutengesa-kutamira kune dzimwe nyika idzi mashanu uye mune mamwe matambudziko makuru anobuda.

Dambudziko reTinbled Ten rinosanganisira:

• Taiwan
• Singapowo
• Rashiya
• Tairendi
• Chammhembe Koria
• Peru
• Chamhembe Afrika
• Chire
• Korombiya
• Bhuraziri

Nhengo dzinoverengeka dzeFragile Five dzakasiyiwa kubva mune urongwa uhwu sezvo hupfumi hwavo hwakatove uine kurasikirwa kana kuti yakagadziriswa. Semuenzaniso, hupfumi hweIndia hwakaramba husina kusimba pasinei nekushungurudzika kwepasi rose mumakambani anotakura muna 2014 na2015. Nyika dzakasara mana dzaive dzakaipa zvikuru pakati peAgasti ya2013 naAgasti ya2015.

Key Takeaway Points

• Kusagadzikana Ishanu iri izwi rakagadzirwa munaAugust of 2013 nemutsvakurudzi wekutsvakurudza kuMorgan Stanley kuti anomiririra kutengeserana kwemari yemakambani yakave yakawedzerwawo kune mari isingatendwi kune dzimwe nyika kuti iwane mari yekuwedzera.
• The Fragile Five dzinosanganisira Turkey, Brazil, India, South Africa, uye Indonesia.
• Izvo Zvakashata Zvishanu zvakatarisa muna 2013 uye muna 2014 semashambadziro emakambani ekutengeserana ayo aivimba kune dzimwe nyika dzekutsvaga mari yekuvhara mari dzekutsvaga mari uye kukura kwezvemari zvakatanga kuona kubuda kwemari semugumisiro wekuvandudzika mune hupfumi hwakabudirira.