Dzidza nezveHumambo hweKutenga Chikwereti

Changamire Kuongorora kubva kuAAA kusvika kuJunk

Changamire kuongororwa kwave kuwedzera kukosha sezvo nyika dzakapoteredza nyika dzichinyanya kutengeserana kwepasi rese. Izvi zvikwereti zvekwereti - zvinobudiswa kune masangano ehurumende akafanana nehurumende dzehurumende - funga nezvehutongerwo enyika, njodzi yekudzivirira uye zvimwe zvinhu zvakasiyana-siyana kugadzirisa mukana wekusavapo. Vane vatatu vanonyanya kupiwa vatongi vemadhora vane S & P, Moody's uye Fitch.

Kubva pavakataurirwa mumavambo ekuma1900, madzishe ekuremekedza madzishe akave nenhau yakaoma.

Moody's nedzimwe nhengo dzekuongororwa zvakatorwa kushamiswa mushure mekudengenyeka kwekukuru kwekuwanda kwakakonzera 21 kubva kumarudzi 58 kuti isasvike pamabatanidzwa avo enyika dzakawanda pakati pa1930 na1935.

Uye kubva panguva iyo, hurumende dzinopfuura makumi manomwe dzakatadza kamwe chete pamari yemari kana yekunze kwemari. Muchikamu chino, tichatarisa kupi kuti tiwane hurumende, maitiro avanoverenga, uye nemigumisiro idzi zvikwereti zviri kune zvikwereti zvepasi rose.

Kwatingawana Changamire Chikamu

Mhedzisiro yakakosha zvikuru yehurumende inobudiswa nehurumende huru huru dzekwereti - Standard & Poor's, Moody's uye Fitch. Nepo kunewo mabhuku mashomanana anopa zvikwereti, aya masangano matatu anonyanya kukosha pamusoro pemagadziro anoita vatengesi. Vashandi vanogona kuwana mvumo yekutonga kubva kuzvikwata zvitatu zvekuverenga pane mawebsite.

Aya matatu mazita anozivikanwa ehurumende makambani anosanganisira:

• Standard & Poor's Sovereign Ratings
• Moody's Investor Services Zvivako Zvidzidzo
• Muchidimbu Kuongororwa Kudzingwa Kwechokwadi

Mamwe mashoma mashoma anozivikanwa ehurumende makanho anosanganisira:

• Dagong Global Credit Rating Co., Ltd.
• AM Best Europe-Rating Services Ltd.
• Euler Hermes ACI GmbH

Zvingaitwa neHurumende yeHurumende

Nhengo dzekuongororwa dzinoshandisa nzira dzakasiyana-siyana dzehuwandu uye dzehupamhi kuti uverenge zviyero zvekutonga.

Asi muna 1996 pepa rine musoro unoti " Determinants and Impact of Sovereign Credit Ratings ", Richard Cantor naFrank Packer vakashandisa kuongororwa patsva kuti vasvike pakuita zvinhu zvitanhatu izvo zvinotsanangura zvinopfuura 90% zvekusiyana kwechikwereti chikamu.

1. Mari inotora mari yakawanda inowanikwa kubva kune imwe huru yero yemitero inowedzera hurumende yekukwanisa kubhadhara chikwereti, asi inogonawo kushanda senzira yekusimudzira zvematongerwo enyika mune zvematongerwo enyika.
2. Simba GDP Rokukura rinoita kuti chikwereti chiripo chiri munyika chive nyore kushanda kwenguva yakareba, sezvo kukura ikoko kunowanzokonzera mari yepamusoro yemari uye huwandu huri nani huripo.
3. Kudhura kwepamusoro kwepamusoro hakugoni kuratidzira matambudziko nemari yenyika, asi kunokonzera kusagadzikana kwezvematongerwo enyika munguva.
4. Chikwereti chenyika chekunze chinogona kuva dambudziko kana rikava risingakanganwiki.
5. Nyika dzine nhoroondo yekusagadzikana inonzwisisika kuva nekodzero yakawanda yekwereti.
6. Dzimwe nyika dzezvematongerwe enyika-dzakabudirira dzinoonekwa hadzina zvishoma kuti dzisave.

Migumisiro yeChangamire Kuongorora

Changamire kuongororwa ane migumisiro kune dzimwe nyika pasi rose. Tsvakurudzo dzinoverengeka dzakaratidza kuti hutongi huri nani hunoenderana nechechi chikwereti chinopararira. Nekudaro, kupararira kwepasi kwakafanana nekuenzanisa nekuderedza mari yekubhadhara nyika dzinobudisa zvisungo.

Cantor uye Packer inofungidzirwa mumashoko anotaurwa pamusoro apa kuti rimwe chete downgrade rinogona kusimudza izvi zvinopararira nepamusoro pe 25%.

Migumisiro yekupararira kwepamusoro uye mari yekubhadhara zvinogona kusanganisira:

• Kuwedzera kwepamuviri: Njodzi mabhizimusi anonyanya kudhindisa mari yakawanda kuvhara madhora emangwana uye emangwana ekukonzera kutengesa kwezvinhu, iyo pachayo inogona kutungamirira kumatambudziko akawanda emari.
• Zvematongerwe Enyika Kusagadzikana: Nyika dzisingadadi kana kusakwanisa kudhinda mamwe mari dzinogona kutora matanho ekugadzirisa mari dzavo, izvo zvingaguma nekugadzikana kwehurumende.
• Zvisarudzo Zvishomanana: Mabhandi ekumusoro anotarirwa nepamusoro ekubhadhara mari angasawana sehupfumi kupa zvivako zvekusimudzira kana zvimwe kukurudzira kukura munguva dzakaoma.

Zvisinei, vamwe vatsvakurudzi vanoramba vasina chokwadi. Chidzidzo chaGonzález-Rozada naEduardo Levy Yeyati, chine musoro unoti "Global Factors uye Inoshambadzika Misika Inopararira", yakawana kuti madzishe ehurumende anofanidza kuchinja kune kupararira pane kuvatarisira.

Asi mumamiriro ose ezvinhu, madzishe ehurumende anomiririra chinhu chakakosha kune vepari vemunyika yose kuti vaone kukosha kwekutsvaga kwenyika.

Key Takeaway Points

• Changamire chikwereti chikwata chave chichiwedzera mukurumbira sezvo nyika dzichitsvaka kugadzirisa misika yezvisungo uye vatengesi vanotsvaka mikana.
• Aya maonero anoverengerwa nemakambani akaita se Standard uye Poor's kana Moody's based on a variety of criteria.
• Zviri nani kuti madzishe ehurumende angaderedza dambudziko rekutsvaga kwekutengesa, kuve nechokwadi chekugadzikana kwezvematongerwo enyika, uye kuita kuti zvishore kubhadhara mari kana zvichidiwa