Tsanangura mararamiro macro uye uzvishandise kune zvaunobatsira.
Jason Pearce ane makore 25 ane veteran yemangwana yemazuva ano. Akatorwa basa rekutengesa mutengesi, mutungamiri mukuru wekambani yekutengeserana, nyanzvi munyori / mharidzi, mutengesi, mutengesi system / algorithm nyanzvi, uye mushambadzidzi wemisika. Iwe unogona kuwana Jason pane www.intermarketconnections.com.
Trend Simplicity
Kana uchitengesa uye uine mari, mubvunzo wekutanga unofanirwa kupindura ndewokuti: Ndeipi mamiriro emusika?
Kana iwe usiri kuwana uyu zvakarurama, mubvunzo wose nemhinduro zvinotevera ndezvisina maturo.
William weOckham, muzana remakore rechigumi nemapfumbamwe muzivi, anonzi ane chirevo chokuti mhinduro yakajeka ndiyo yakanakisisa. Shanduro yemazuva ano ndiyo inonzi KISS. Izvi hazvina chokuita ne1970s rock band, kunyange zvazvo Gene Simmons angave aine chiziviso iye zvino. Izwi rakanyorwa rinoreva Keep It Simple, Stupid. Vashandi vekambani vanoshandisa chirevo ichi nekuisa pfungwa pane chimwe chinhu chete: Mutengo. Hazviwani nyore nyore kupfuura izvozvo.
Macro View
Kana uchitarisa chiitiko, munhu anofanirwa kusarudza nguva ipi yekufungidzira. Tinotenda kuti vatengesi panguva dzese dzinofanirwa kunge vachiziva nezvemaitiro makuru. Kuva panzvimbo yakafanana nemakethe inowedzera mikana yako yekubudirira saka haisi ye-brainer. Kunyange mutengesi anotengesa anofanira kunge achiziva mamiriro makuru ekuziva kuti simba rakadini nderekuti ari kushambira.
Drumroll, Ndapota
Heino nzira yakasarudzwa yekuona mararamiro makuru: Enzanisa mutengo wemari S & P 500 kusvika pamwedzi we -10-bar inofambisa chiyero (MA). Kuguma-kwe-mwedzi kwepedyo pamusoro pe-10-bar-MA MA (nevanenge 15-pts) inoreva kuti misika iri mumusangano; kuguma-kwenyanga kunovhara pasi pemwedzi 10-bar MA (nevanenge 15-pts) zvinoreva kuti iri muDowntrend.
Yeuka pamusoro pemigumisiro yehupfumi hweChina, mari yegore roga roga, yeFid's interest rate policy, uye apocalyptic zviratidzo zveRopa Moon. Mutengo ndiyo chete inogadziriswa yekuti tinoti mumusika uri mumusangano kana downtrend.
Shandisa mari yeS & P 500 kuti uone maitiro emusika. Kunyange kana iwe usina kubhadhara muS & P kana nhete , kuziva ruzivo rwemahombekombe huri chichiri chikonzero chinokosha chekuti kana kuti haufaniri kuiswa mune imwe nhomwe. Zvokudya zvako zvinoshandisa mukana wakanaka wekushanda kunze kana mutengo wekodhi unowedzera.
Nzira Yokushandisa Izvo
Heano nzira nhatu iyo mutengesi anogona kushandisa chiratidzo ichi:
1. Pamugumo wemwedzi pedyo nepamusoro pe-10-bar MA, endai kwenguva refu. Buda pamagumo emwedzi pedyo ne-10-bar MA.
2. Pamugumo wemwedzi pedyo nepasi pemwedzi 10-bar MA, pfupi. Buda pamagumo emwedzi pedyo nepamusoro pe-10-bar MA.
Vamwe vanoti chikamu chiduku ndechevatengesi vane chirwere chekuda uye kusagadzikana. Izvi chaizvoizvo zvine zvakawanda zvine chokuita nehuwandu uye hutsika-sizing kupfuura mutengo wemisika. Zvisinei, rutivi rwapfupi runopesana nehuwandu hwemhando yehupenyu hunoenda mberi pamusoro pekureba kwenguva refu. Kunyange zvakadaro, chiratidzo chacho chakaratidza kuti chaikosha apo chakashandura rusvingo pashure pemisoro mikuru muna 2000 ne2007.
Imwe nzira yakachengetedza yekushandisa chiratidzo ichi ndeyekuti uende mari apo chiratidzo chedowntrend chichigadzirisa. Zviri nani kuti ude kunze uchida kuti iwe uri mukati, pane kuva nekuda kuti iwe wakanga uri kunze!
3. Shandisa ma-10-bar MA semutengo wekutsvaga kwekutengeswa kwemashamba panguva yekutengesa. Muchikwata, chikwata chiri pasi pemwedzi we-10-bar MA inogona kugovera vatengesi vachigadzirisa kuti vaende kwenguva refu kana misika inotanga kudzoka. Isa chigadziro chekutengesa chiri pasi pekugadziriswa pasi uye shandisa mwedzi-pedyo pedyo ne-MA-bar-bar MA semuenzaniso wekubuda. Inverse inoshandiswa pakushandura pamusika.
Iko Ikozvino Maitiro
Mbudzi yakaguma nemwedzi wekupedzisira pedyo ne-ten-bar MA yemwedzi yekutanga kubva munaDecember 2011, zvichiratidza kuti misika yakashandurwa kune downtrend. Vatengesi vanofanira kunge vava pfupi kana mune mari.
Kunopera mwedzi chete kumucheto pamusoro pemwedzi gumi nemwedzi-MA kunotipa 'zvose zvakajeka' kutenga zvakare.
Kunyange zvazvo tanga tiri mumakambani emombe kwemakore matanhatu , chikwata chetsika chinoshanduka zviratidzo chichiri chakanaka. The last bearish trend change signal in August 2011 uye misika yakaderedza imwe 12%. Izvi zvisati zvaitika, the bearish trend change signal in May 2010 yakachengetedza mushambadzi wekumisika kune rumwe rutivi rwemwedzi mitatu. The bearish trend change signal in December 2007 yakaratidza panguva yakakodzera sezvo yakaratidza kudengenyeka kwemari.
The Next Switcheroo
Kudzorera downtrend, mari S & P inoda mwedzi wekupedzisira kumashure kwepamusoro pe-10-bar MA. Izvi zvingava mashoko akanaka! Dzokera kune rumwe rutivi rwemari. Zvinoreva kuti takaponesa ropa remwedzi pasina kuitika kweZombie. Chimwe chiratidzo chinokurudzira chaizova mukana wakanaka. Zvine zvitsva zvekushandura zvinoshandiswa zvikaitika pamusoro pemakore gumi nemaviri apfuura zvakateverwa nemamiriyoni emwedzi / gore rungano.
Mwedzi mipfupi inotevera inofanira kunge inofadza. Kana iwe uchitamba makadhi ako zvakanaka, zvinogona kunge zvichibatsira. Iva nechokwadi chekutengeserana nemutambo kuwedzera mikana yako yekubudirira.
Photo Credit: Paper Bhuku Creative / Digital Vision / Getty Images