Nei Boring Inenge Nguva Dzose Inobatsira Kwazvo

Kuita Mari Kubva Munzvimbo Yausingafungi Zvingaita

Munguva pfupi yapfuura, ndakatanga kuverenga bhuku raJeremy Siegel, The Future For Investors: Sei Kutongwa uye Kukunda Kwechokwadi kweBold uye Itsva . Sezvaunogona kufungidzira, ndakaverenga mari zhinji, kuverenga, kuisa mari, mabhizimusi, uye mabhuku ekutungamirira muupenyu hwangu uyewo kunyora ini pachako. Haisi kunyanyisa kutaura kuti ndinofunga kuti shanduro yeSiegel yakakurumbira ingangove imwe yezvinyorwa zvakakosha zvakanyorwa pamusoro pekutungamirira kwekuchengetwa kwemabasa mumakore makumi maviri adarika.

Kana iwe usati uine kopi, tora kamwe kamwe (shure kwokunge wapedza kuverenga nyaya ino, hongu!).

Chikonzero chebasa rake chiri nyore: Nokufamba kwenguva, makambani anodzorera mari yakawandisa kune vadzidzisi vavo - vagoveri - nenzira yemari inoshandiswa uye kugoverana zvekugovana zvinonzwisisika avo vanodurura dime rose rinodzokorora kumashure emabasa ekubhadhara kukura. Vashandi vanowanzokundikana kutarisa nokuti vari kutsvaga "chiito" muchimiro chekusimudzirwa kwechikwata chekugoverana kana misika yemari , vachikanganwa kuti kuwedzera kwekutsvaga kwekubhadhara kunofanira kusanganisira mari yakabhadharwa kune vadzidzisi munzira. Kunyange zvazvo izvi zvingaita sezvisinganzwisisiki, mubasa rose remazana matatu peji, mupurofesa anokuendesa kuburikidza nenhamba dzezvakaitika kare uye kutsvakurudza kuchasimuka kunyange muongorori akaoma zvikuru anogutsikana kuti nzira yehupfumi inogona kunge iri mumugwagwa unotyisa, munyoro.

A Statistical Statistic

Zvichida chokwadi chinonyatsoratidza kuti: Kubvira muna 1950 kusvika muna 2003, IBM yakawedzera mari pa12.19% mugove, zvikamu pa 9.19% mugairo, mubayiro wega wega 10,94%, uye kuwedzera kwezvikamu zve14,65%.

Panguva imwecheteyo, Standard Oil yeNew Jersey (iyo zvino iri chikamu cheExx Mobile) yakabhadharwa kugoverana kwezvikamu zvinokwana 8,4%, chikamu chimwe nechimwe kukura kwe7.11%, kuwanikwa kwegawaniro yekugoverwa kwe7.7%, uye kuwedzera kwezvikamu zvisingabatsiri 14.22% .

Kuziva chokwadi ichi, ndeupi wezvikwama zviviri izvi iwe unogona kunge uinazvo?

Mhinduro yacho inogona kukushamisa iwe. Mari inosvika $ 1 000 inotengeswa muBIM ingadai yakakura kusvika $ 961 000 asi iyo yakafanana inotengeswa mu Standard Oil ingadai yakasvika madhora 1,260,000 - kana kuti inosvika madhora mazana matatu emadhora - kunyange zvazvo kambani yemafisi yehoko yakangowedzerwa nemazana makumi maviri panguva ino neBibM, Kusiyanisa, kuwedzera nemazana matatu, kana kuti inenge katatu purogiramu imwe neimwe. Izvo zvinokonzera kusiyana zvinobva kune izvo zvinoratidzika zvakajeka zvikamu: Pasinei nekuwanda zviri nani nezvikamu zvinokonzerwa neBM, vashandi vakatenga Standard Oil uye vakadzorerazve mari yavo migove vaizova nenguva inopfuura 15-nhamba yezvikamu zvavakatanga apo apo IBM stockholders vaingova nemakore matatu chete -iyo nguva yavo yepakutanga. Izvi zvinouyawo kuratidza kuti Benjamin Graham anotaura kuti kunyange zvazvo kushanda kwebhizimisi kuchikosha, Mutengo uri Paramount .

Nheyo Yenheyo Yokudhinda Inoshandiswa

Chimwe chikonzero chinokosha Siegel chinotsanangura mubhuku chinhu chaakadana kuti chinangwa chekudzoka kwezvemari, iyo, "Kudzoka kwenguva yakareba pachikwata hazvibvi pane kuwedzera kwekuwana kwayo, asi pamusiyano pakati payo chaiyo yekuwana kuwedzera uye kukura kwekuti vatengesi vasiri kunze. "Izvi, anotaura, anotsanangura kuti nei firms dzakadai saFiripi Morris (akatumidzwa zita rokuti Altria Group) akaita zvakanaka kwazvo kune vashandi vekutsvaga (chaizvoizvo, gurukota refodya ndiro iro rakakosha kudyidzana kwematokari makuru kubva muna 1957 kusvikira muna 2003 , kuwedzera pa19,75% nezvikwereti zvadzorerwa, zvichiita kuti $ 6 626 402 inowanikwa mari inosvika $ 1 000.).

Zvinorehwa pamashoko ake zvakakura uye zvinodzokorora avo veBenjamin Graham makumi emakore akapfuura. Muchidimbu, hazvibatsiri kune anokutengesa kana achitsvaga kusimba zvakasimba pa20% kana kukura ikoko kwatotengwa mumutengo. Kana kambani inoshandura migumisiro yakaderera - ichiti 15% - maitiro akawandisa zvokuti sengo ichawana nyundo, ichikwevera pasi inodzoka. Kana kune rumwe rutivi, wakatenga chikwata chakanga chichikura pa10%, asi mumusika waitarisira 5%, iwe unogona kuwana zvigaro zviri nani. Pakupera kwezuva, chinhu chimwe chete chinonyanya kukosha ndeye mari yakawanda yaunayo (kana se Warren Buffett pane imwe nguva yakataura, ingani mabhamburger unogona kutenga). Vashandi vakawanda vanokanganwa kuti nzira yehupfumi ndeyokutenga mari yakawanda yekuwana mari yakaderera iyo inowanzosi iyo ikambani inowedzera panguva yakakurumidza.

Shandisa Zvokubhadhara vs. Cash Zvikamu

Bhuku rino rinokurukura nyaya iyi, yatakanyatsoongorora mubhuku rekupedzisira reCash Cash Dividends vs. Share Repurchases .

Closing Thoughts

Zvose mune zvose, kana iwe uchida kuti chii chinoita kuti uwane mari yekubudirira uye iwe unongova nenguva yekuverenga bhuku rimwechete gore rino, ichi ndicho chisarudzo chakanakisisa.