Nzira Yokuona Nayo Njodzi Njodzi Dzakashata Pano Nedzimwe nyika
Zviratidzo zvitatu zveAsset Bubble
Muchikamu chino, tichatarisa zviratidzo zvitatu zvebasa rekushandisa uye kuti vatengesi vanogona sei kuvashandisa kuti vaone nzvimbo dzingangove dziri mumatengesi.
1. Kusimudza Bhiza Pasina Kuvandudza Zvinhu Zvinokosha
Chiratidzo chekutanga chebasa rekushandisa chiri kukura kwemitengo kunze kwekuvandudza zvinhu zvinokosha. Semuenzaniso, bubble-dot-com yakaona kukurumidza kukurumidza kwezvikwereti zvinowanikwa mutengo pakati pekambani dzeInternet. Mazhinji emakambani aya ainge asina zvishoma kubhadharwa, asi akarayira mabhiriyoni akawanda emadhora emadhora chero zvakadaro. Iko rudzi rwekusagadzikana kusinganzwisisiki kune chikamu chevatyairi chiratidzo chechikamu chebasa rekushandisa.
Vashandi vemunyika yose vangave vachida kufunga nezvemari yezviratidzi iyo nhoroondo yemitengo uye kuongororwa, zvakadai sekuenzanisa kwebhasikiti-mari yakawanikwa ("CAPE") chiyero. Kakawanda nguva, mumusika unogona kuva pangozi yehutu kana chikwata cheCAPE chikawedzerwa, asi zvakakosha kuziva kuti iyi haisi nguva dzose.
Mutengo-kuwana mari yakagadziriswa inokonzerwa nezvinhu zvakadai zvisina pangozi muhupfumi, izvo zvingashandurwa kwemazuva, zvisingabatsiri pfuma iyo pachayo.
2. Kushandiswa Kwakawanda kweEverage
Chiratidzo chechipiri chekunyanya kubhadharira kushandiswa kwakanyanya-kana kuti chikwereti. Semuenzaniso, 2008 subprime mortgage crisis yakakonzerwa munzvimbo huru mabhangi achipa vashandi vane chikwereti chakashata nekunowana mari nyore.
Izvi zvinodhura zvakanyanya zvinogona kuwanikwa kubva mune zvemari (sezvinodiwa nemari chete) chikwereti, mari shoma (semadhora ekuderera kwenharaunda), kana hutsika hwehutsika (apo vanhu vanodzivirirwa pangozi).
Vashandi vemunyika yose vanofanira kutarisa mamiriro ezvinhu apo kukweretesa kwakanyanya kungave kuri kutamba. Semuenzaniso, nyika iyo yakaona kukwira-mhanya mune chikwereti-ku-GDP chiyero ichi inogona kuva pangozi yehupfumi hwehupfumi kana hupfumi hwayo huri kubhadhara chikwereti. Pane imwe granular level, vatengesi vanogona kutarisa chikwereti chekwereti chinoshandiswa kutenga mamwe marudzi ezvimwe zvinhu, zvakadai seimba kana mashizha, sechiratidzo chinogona kuve chekuti bubble inogona kukura musoro wayo.
3. Kupindira kwezvematongerwo enyika
Nzira dzakanyanya kunaka dzinogona kuwanikwa kumashure vezvematongerwo enyika . Semuenzaniso, mabhandi ekumusoro anogona kukurudzira kukweretesa zvakanyanya nehurumende yepamusoro yekutora kana mitemo yehurumende inogona kusimbisa matambudziko ehutano uye kukurudzira vanhu kuti vaite dambudziko guru. Izvozvi njodzi dzinonyanya kuzivikanwa mune hupfumi hutungamiri hwepasi-hwakadai semakomonisiti - asi huripo kune dzimwe nyika dzakabudirira pamwe - kusanganisira United States.
Vashandi vemunyika yose vanofanira kutarisa mazano ezvematongerwo enyika angangodaro ari kuumba mararamiro ehutori uye otora mukana wekubuda mubhadharo kana kunyange kutengesa kushambadzira pfupi.
Semuenzaniso, vatongi vechiChinese vakatora matanho anoverengeka kuti vasvike pamusika wekutengesa muna 2015 mushure mokuputsika, izvo zvingave zvakakonzera kune imwe mwedzi inopera gare gare. Sangano reFederal Reserve mari yakajeka kubva muna 1987 - 2006 inogona kunge yakapawo muzinda wekumba muAmerica
Kufanotaurira Asset Bubbles
Kufanotaurira matambudziko emhando yebasa iri basa rakaoma zvikuru. Nezvo zviri nyore kuona zvimwe zvezviratidzo, zvinotova zvakaoma kufanotaura kupera kwekutengesa uye chero nguva yakarurama. Misika inogona kuramba ichiwedzerwa kwemakore vasati vadzokera kune chaicho, izvo zvinoita kuti pfupi-kutengesa mari inodhura uye mukana wekutengesa zvakakwirira kune vashandi venguva refu. Ichokwadi, zvidzidzo zvinoratidza kuti vashandi vakawanda vanonyanya kutasva kuburikidza nekuderera pane kuedza kudzivisa.
Izvozvo zvakati, dzimwe misika yemarudzi ose zviri nyore kuona mavhiri mune vamwe uye vatyairi vangada kuchinja mararamiro avo ekuvandudza mapurogiramu emungozi.
Kuderedza dambudziko kunogona kuva nemigumisiro yakaipa pamitadzo, asi izvi zvinogona kuve zvakakosha kana mumwe mutengesi anotarisira kuvhara pasi nhoroondo pamusoro pedyo nguva.
The Bottom Line
Nhengo dzepfuma dzinogona kuve nechinokonzera zvakanyanya kudzoka kwevatengesi venyika dzakawanda. Kunyange zvazvo zvingava zvakaoma kufanotaura, pane zvimwe zviratidzo zvinoratidza kuti vatengesi vanogona kutarisa panguva yekutsvakurudza kwavo. Vashandi vemunyika dzese vanogona kutora matanho ekuwedzera kana kuderedza kusarudzwa kwavo kune dzimwe misika inobva pane izvozvi, kunyange zvazvo kumwe kutsvakurudza kunoratidza kuti vatengesi vangave vakanakisisa kubva kutasva kuburikidza nehutu hwakadaro pamusoro penguva refu.