Nzira Yokuverenga & Shandisa CAPE Ratio Kuti Uvandudze Kudzorera
Kuisa mari mumiganhu uye mararamiro ari kubuda kunowanzotambudza zvikuru pane kuisa mari mumisika yepamba yevashandi ve US-based, nezvinhu zvakadai sehuwandu hwezvematongerwe enyika uye mari yekutengesa inokonzera kuongororwa kwehutano nenzira huru. Kuti varatidze zvikwereti izvi zvakawedzerwa, vatengesi vanofanira kuva nechokwadi chekukwana kwakakwana kwedzo dzinotarisirwa, inotungamirirwa nehupfumi huchikura nokukurumidza, mafungiro evanhu vanofarira, nezvimwe zvinhu, maererano neUnited States.
Mashoko akaipa ndeokuti kudzorerwa kunotarisirwa zvakaoma zvakaenzana pakugadzira muzviitiko zvakawanda, zvichipiwa nhamba huru yezvinhu zvinokurudzira. Semuenzaniso, vazhinji vemiganhu nemisika inotanga kubuda inotarisana nekutengesa kune dzimwe nyika kuitira kuti kuendesa hupfumi hwehupfumi, izvo zvinoreva kuti chibereko chavo chemhuri ("GDP") inonyanya kuvimba nemari yevatengi kunze. Hurumende nemakambani vane zvishoma kutonga pamusoro pemhando idzi dzekutya zvinhu.
Muchikamu chino, tichatarisa kuti tingaenzanisa sei kudzokera kwakatarwa tichishandisa bhaclically adjusted price earnings ratio - kana chikwata cheCAPE - iyo inoyera kukwanisa kwenguva refu.
Kuverenga kweCAPE Ratio
Nhanho yakagadziridzwa yakashandurwa mari yekubhadharwa - kana kuti CAPE chiyero - inotarirwa nokuparadzanisa mutengo wazvino wekasa rekutsvaga kwemahombekiti emagetsi nemagetsi ekugadzirisa-kuchinjwa mari yezvikamu zvayo mumakore gumi apfuura. Kazhinji kacho, kuwedzera kwekuwedzera kwezvinhu kunoshandiswa kune mari yegore rimwe nerimwe kuburikidza usati waparadzanisa huwandu hwe 10 (kuwana huwandu) kuitira kuti zvinyatsogadziriswa - sezvo kuwedzera kwekuwedzera kwezvipembenene kunowanika kuwanikwa.
Chikamu cheCAPE chinoda makore gumi emakore ezvinyorwa zvekare, izvo zvinogona kuoma kuuya munyika dzakawanda. Pakati pemarudzi akaumbwa, US, UK, Canada, neJapan vaiva nemabhuku akawanda kwenguva refu, asi Austria neIreland zvaiva nezvishoma. Masoka emerging akaita saMalaysia, South Korea neThailand anewo nguva yakareba zvinyorwa, asi China neColumbia vave vachinyora zvinyorwa zvinokosha kubvira muna 2005.
Kushandisa CAPE Ratio
S & P 500 CAPE chiyero chechidiki pasi pe10 chakabudiswa makore gumi kubva kune 16%, asi chikamu chinopfuura 25 chakabudiswa chinodarika zvishoma ne4%, maererano nezvidzidzo zvakawanda zvemashamba eU.S. Zvechokwadi, mhedzisiro yacho yakasimba kwazvo zvokuti mari yakawanda -yekutengeserana mari ("ETFs") yakatangwa kuti iwane huwandu hwekuchinja muhuwandu hweCAPE pamwe chete uye pakati peindasitiri inoshandiswa. Semuenzaniso, Ossiam akatanga pa ETF akaisa pfungwa pamusoro pekushandisa shanduko yekushandura.
Izvochete metric inogona kushandiswa kumiganhu uye kubuda kwekuenzanisa kwezvikwereti kusarudza kukosha kwavo maererano nemitemo yezvakaitika kare. Nenzira yakawanda, chiyero cheCAPE chiri pakati pe10 ne15 chinonzi chakanakisisa, asi chikamu chinopfuura makumi maviri chinogona kuratidza kuti misika inonyanya kukoshesa uye inokonzerwa nekugadziriswa. Zvakakodzera kucherechedza, zvisinei, kuti misika dzakasiyana dzakasiyana zvakakwana, saka vashandi vanofanirwawo kutarisa matanho makuru emifananidzo.
Kutsvakurudza KAPE Mikana
Vashandi vemunyika yose vanogona kuwana nokukurumidza CAPE ratios kune nyika dzakasiyana-siyana pasi rose vachishandisa zvigadzirwa zvisina ruzivo seStudio Capital ye Global Stock Market Valuation Ratios. Kubva muna Q1 2015, nyika dzakaderera pasi pose dzaiva Italy pa12,9, Spain pa13.5, uye Norway pa13,7, uyewo yakagadzirwa neEurope nemisika inotanga kusvika 16.5.
Panewo zvishandiso, zvakadai seCAPERatio.com, izvo zvinogona kubatsira kuverenga metric yezvimwe zvikwata mukati memusika.
Paunenge uchishandisa chikwata cheCAPE, vatengi vanofanira kutarisa zvimbiso kuburikidza nezvimwe zviratidzo zvakasiyana pane kuvimba nayo chete. Vazhinji vatengesi vanosarudza kushandisa chikwata cheCAPE kuti vatarise nyika kana mashizha anotengeserana nekusarura kwekutsanangurira uye otsvaga mikana yevanhu vanogadzirisa munyika idzodzo vachishandisa American Depositary Receipts ("ADRs") kana kutenga zvinyorwa zvekunze zvakananga.
Key Takeaway Points
- Vashandi vari mumiganhu uye misika yakabuda inotarisana nematambudziko makuru kune emisika yemisika yakapiwa zviitiko zvezvematongerwe enyika uye zvemari.
- Chikamu cheCAPE chinogona kubatsira kuchengetedza kuti izvo zvinguva refu zvinodzoka mberi zvichave zvakakwana kudzikisa dambudziko idzodzo.
- Vashandi vanofanira kushandisa chikwata cheCAPE pamwe chete nemamwe marudzi ekuongorora pane kuvimba nayo chete.