Kunzwisisa Kukosha Kwepfungwa uye Zvikonzero Zvakasiyana Mabhizimisi Anokodzera Maitiro Akasiyana
Pakati penyika, tsanangudzo yekutanga yezvinhu zvakakosha zvezvinhu zvose zviri munyika zviri nyore: Izvo zvose zvinokonzerwa nemari inenge ichishandiswa neyoyo yefa inoderedzwa kusvika panguva ino chaiyo pamutengo wakakodzera izvo zvinowanikwa mukana wekodzero ( inowanzoenzaniswa nehuwandu husina mari yeUnited States) uye inflation . Kuenzanisa nzira yekushandisa iyo kumunhu mumwe nomumwe kunogona kunge kwakaoma zvikuru zvichienderana nehupenyu uye hupfumi hwebhizimisi. Sezvo Benjamin Graham, baba vekuchengetedzwa kwekuchengetedzwa kwemabhizimisi, vakakumbira vadzidzi vake, zvisinei, chimwe chinhu hachifaniri kuziva kukosha kwakakwana kwemunhu kuziva kuti iye ane mafuta kana kuti chaiyo yemukadzi kuziva kuti akwegura. Nokutsvaga pamikana iyo yakanyatsojeka uye yakajeka munharaunda yako yeunyanzvi uye iwe unoziva kuti uri nani kudarika mavhareji, Graham akatenda iwe une huwandu hwepamusoro hwekuwana hunogutsa, kana husingare-kupfuura-hunogutsa, huchaguma kwenguva refu nguva.
Mabhizimisi ose haana kusikwa akaenzana. Sangano rekutsvaga risingadi chimwe chinhu kunze kwepenzura uye madheski inowanzoita bhizinesi iri nani kupfuura yegurisi resimbi, kuti ingotanga kushanda, inoda makumi emamiriyoni emadhora kana kupfuura mukutanga kwekutsvaga mari. Zvimwe zvose zvakaenzana, chikwata chekutengesa chakanakodzera chakakodzerwa nemutengo wepamusoro-kune-kuwanikwa akawanda nokuti mumamiriro ekuderedza, varidzi (avo vanoita) havasi kuzofanira kuchengetedza mari yekushandisa mari yekuchengetedza pfuma, simiti uye midziyo .
Ichi ndicho chikonzero nei vatengesi vakangwara vanofanira kusiyanisa pakati pehuwandu hwehuwandu hwehuwandu hwemari uye yezvokwadi, "mari" purogiramu kana "muridzi" zvakagadziriswa saWarren Buffett akazvitumidza. Iyi nhamba inomiririra mari iyo muridzi wacho angatora kunze kwebhizimisi uye akadzorera kune imwe nzvimbo, pedza pazvinhu zvinodiwa kana kuti zvigadzirwa zvepamusoro kana kupa zvipo kune rudo.
Mune mamwe mazwi, hazvina basa kuti inonzi yakawanikwa mari yakadini ndeyekuti inonzi yakawanikwa mari inogona kubviswa. Asi, zvakakosha ndezvokuti zvikafu zvakawanda zvinotengeswa nemuridzi maererano nekutsvaga kwake mubhizinesi. Ndicho chikonzero mabhizimusi makuru-maitiro anowanzoita anathema kune vashandi venguva refu, sezvo vachiona zvishoma zvishoma nezvemari yavo inonzi yakashandurwa ichashandura kuoneka, pfuma yakawanda nekuda kwechokwadi chinokosha chechokwadi: Pamusoro penguva refu, kuwedzera kwe muchengeti wekutsvaga mari inoshandiswa ndeyekudzoka kune kuenzana kunoitwa nekambani yepasi. Chero chimwe chinhu, zvakadai sekuvimba nekambani yemombe kana kuti munhu anotevera ari mumutsara achabhadhara zvakanyanya kambani kupfuura iwe (inonzi zvakakodzera "dzidziso yeupenzi") inofungidzira.
Mugumisiro wepfungwa iyi inokosha ndeyekuti mabhizimisi maviri anogona kunge akawana mari yakafanana ye $ 10 mamiriyoni, asi Company ABC inogona kupa $ 5 mamiriyoni uye imwe, Company XYZ, $ 20 mamiriyoni mu "muridzi wemari." Saka, Company XYZ inogona kuva nemutengo- kusvika-kuwanikwa muzvikamu kane zvakapfuura kukwikwidzana kwayo ABC asi ichiri kutengesa kuchitengo chimwe chete.
Kukosha Kwemavambo Okuchengeteka Paunofunga Nezvokutengesa Zvine P / E Ratio
Njodzi ine nzira iyi ndeyokuti, kana yakatorwa zvakanyanya, sepfungwa dzepfungwa dzevanhu dzakakwanisa kuita, chero zvikonzero zvekuenzanisa kwepamusoro zvinokurumidza kuponeswa kunze kwehwindo. Kazhinji, kana iwe uchibhadhara mari inopfuura 15x yekambani kune imwe nzvimbo inowanzofarira-mizinga yemamiriro okunze (20x pamusana pekuwana mune zvakachengetwa-kuputsa zvishoma-kufarira-nzvimbo yakasikwa), unoda kunyatsotarisa pfungwa dzepfungwa dzaunayo ramangwana rinobatsira uye rinokosha . Nezvo zvakati, kuregererwa kwemazana akawanda pamusoro pemutengo uyu hakusi kuchenjera. Gore rakapfuura, ndinorangarira kuverenga nyaya inoratidza kuti muma1990, mari inodhura pane yekudzoka yakanga iri Dell Computers pa50x mibairo. Zvinonzwika kupenga asi kana zvasvika kune iyo, mari inoberekwa naDell yaireva kuti, dai wakatenga iyo pamutengo wakaenzana ne 2% mubhadharo wekukohwa, iwe ungadai wakapwanyika zvachose kune imwe neimwe inotengeswa.
Zvisinei, ungadai wakave wakasununguka kuva nekodzero yako yose yakakosha mune bhizinesi risina ngozi kana iwe usina kunzwisisa hupfumi hwemabhizimisi emakombiyuta, avo vanomhanyisa mune ramangwana, izvo zvigadzirwa zvePC uye zvakashata zvekugadzirisa inopa Dell basa rakanakisisa pamusoro pemakwikwi, uye chiitiko chakajeka chokuti kukanganisa kumwe kunouraya kunogona kupedza chikamu chikuru chekodzero yako? Zvichida kwete.
Izvo Zvakakosha Kuwirirana Paunotarisa P / E Ratios
Kune mutengi, mamiriro ezvinhu akakwana anokonzerwa kana iwe uwana bhizinesi rakanaka kwazvo rinoita mari yakawanda yemari isina zvishoma kana kuti kwete mari inoshandiswa, sezvakaitwa American Express munguva yekunyadziswa kweSalad Oil, Wells Fargo apo yakatengesa pamapiro mashanu ekugadziriswa kweimba kubva kuma1980 kusvika pakutanga kwema1990 kana Starbucks munguva yeCreat Recession collapse ya 2009.
Muedzo wakanaka unogona kushandisa ndeyekuvhara maziso ako uye edza kufungidzira kuti bhizimisi ringaita sei mumakore gumi. Vose sevanyori vechitevedzeri uye semutengi, iwe unofunga kuti ichava yakakura uye inobatsira here? Ko zvakadini nenharo - ichagadzirwa sei? Ndezvipi zvinotyisa kumamiriro ekukwikwidza? Apo ini ndakatanga kunyora iyi nyaya kupfuura makore ane gumi apfuura, ndakabatanidza ndima iyo yakati, "Muenzaniso unogona kubatsira: Unofunga kuti Blockbuster icharamba iine hurukuro yevhidhiyo yokubhadharira franchise here? Zvimwe, ndiyo chivimbo changu chokuti muenzaniso wekununura plastiki disks hazvina kunyatsotsinhaniswa uye shanduro yakawanda inokurumidza kukurumidza uye inokurumidza, zvinyorwa zvichazoguma zvichitsvaga, zvikwereti, kana zvichitengwa zvakananga kubva pazvikoro pasina chero chidikanwi chemunhu wepakati, zvichibvumira kuti vadziri vehupenyu varambe varipo. zvingaita kuti ndive nechengeti yakawanda yekuchengeteka ndisati ndatenga mubhizimusi rinotarisana nehutano chaihwo hunoshungurudza chinetso. " Blockbuster akaita, chaizvoizvo, pakupedzisira akaparara. Ndezvipi mabhizimisi aunofunga kuti ari munzvimbo, ikozvino, kuti Blockbuster yaiva panguva iyo?