Bharometer yeCNN yekutsvaga mari inogona kuzarura kutanga kutenga nguva
CNN inotarisa zvinhu zvinomwe zvakasiyana zvekukweretesa mafungiro emari pamwero we zero kusvika zana (kutya kwakanyanya kune makaro zvakanyanya). Tisati tatsanangura kuti zvose zvinoshanda sei, ngatitangei mubvunzo mubvunzo waungangonakidza iwe paunenge uchiverenga izvi: Ndekupi index ikozvino?
Sezvo vhiki yekupedzisira munaJuly, nhamba yacho yakagara pana 70: Icho chikamu chekukara, asi chiri pasi pezvikamu 79 zvegore rakapfuura, izvo zvaizowira pasi pe "makaro akanyanya."
Zvinhu zvinomwe zvinoudza Kutya nemakaro Index:
- Stock Price Breadth: Kusvika kweiyo yakawandisa yehuwandu yakaenderera mberi kana yakaramba kuNew York Stock Exchange? Pano, iyo FGI inotenderera pane dheta kubva kuMcClellan Volume Summation Index.
- Market Momentum: Ko S & P 500 iri kure zvakadini kana pasi pemakore 125 evhareji?
- Junk Bond Chido: Ko vashandi vari kutevera nzira dzakakwirira dzekuisa njodzi ?
- Nzvimbo Yakachengeteka Inoda Kubvunzwa: Ko vashandi vari kutenderera vari mumatanda kubva pakachengeteka kwakakwana kwezvisungo here?
- Stock Price Simba: Ndeipi mhando yematokari achirova 52-vhiki yepamusoro kune avo vane gore rimwe chete?
- Mutengo Wokutsvaga: Pano CNN inoshandisa Chicago Chicago Options Exchange ye Volatility Index, kana kuti VIX, inotarisa pamushamba wemakore makumi mashanu.
- Isa uye Wodana Mazano: Ndezvipi zvinoshandiswa pakusarudza zvingasarudzwa mushure mekufirwa kwemashoko (makaro) kana kupfuura (kutya)? Ita zvisarudzo zvibvumira vashandi kutengesa pamutengo unobvumirana pane kana zuva risati rasvika, izvo zvingasarudzwa zvekufonera zvinoshanda zvakafanana, chete nokutenga.
Vamwe vanokakavara vanodzinga rondedzero senzwi rakanaka rekutsvaga mari. Chimwe chikamu kune website yekutsvaga Alpha, somuenzaniso, inoona FGI sechimwe chinhu chebharometer yeboka rekutengesa-nguva. Blogger, iyo inofamba ne "JAMM Investing," inoita humwe huno hwakanaka pakuti izvi haisi chigadziro chekuita puropu nokukurumidza: "Kudzokera shure pakati pegore ra2010, zano rekutenga-nekubata S & P 500 raizove vakadzoka 95 muzana.
Kutengesa-pamusoro-makaro urongwa hunogona kudzorera 50 kubva muzana kana kuti pasi. "
Asi izvo zvinodzinga kuti iwe uchishandisa purojekiti yekuwana pfupi nguva pfupi kana iri chokwadi, inogona kushandiswa zvakanyatsobudirira kutsigira kupinda mumusika panguva yakakodzera. Kuti uite izvozvo, iwe unoda kuongorora nguva yako yekutsvaga kwekutsvaga purogiramu kana mazano ekurongedza kune kutya.
Sei ichi? Kana uchitanga, iwe unenge uchitevedzera zvisati zvisiri simba pane bhirionaire Warren Buffett, uyo ane nhamo akataura kuti haangotengi kutenga mabhizimisi paanenge ari pasi: "Chinhu chakanaka chinoitika kwatiri ndechekuti boka guru inopinda mumatambudziko epanguva pfupi. ... Tinoda kuzvitenga apo vari patafura yekushandisa. "
Uye zvakatorwa nenzira iyo, FGI inova chimwe chinhu chinonzi bellwether kana kutya kwave kuchikwira, uye kusagadzikana kunetseka kunotungamirira maitiro ezvimwe zvakasarirwa vatengesi. Uye heino chikamu chinonakidza: Kana iwe wakatarisa rondedzero, mafikisi emakaro anoshandiswa nemafuta ekutya ne-rollercoaster zvakajeka, uye pasina kuenzana kwepakati mukati.
Mukufamba kubva pakati pegore ra2014 kusvika muzhizha 2017, unogona kuverenga katatu apo nhamba yacho inopinda nepamusoro pa 60 kana pamusoro, kungoita kupera zvakaderera se 10 (muhafu yekupedzisira ya 2015). Zvisinganzwisisiki, iyo inotambanudza iyo index yakagara yakapoteredza 50 kwenguva yakareba yakave gore rino, inenge ichienzanisa nekamukota rechipiri.
Kwete kuti Buffett inoshandisa FGI, asi apa ndiyo nzira yaanogona nayo, uye iwe unogona sei, zvakare: Tarisa kune simba rakasimba rekutya uye pavanenge varova, ramba uine ziso kumakambani asina kutarisirwa. Nenzira iyo, unogona kuzarura pane imwe nzvimbo yakavanzwa mikana yekutsinhanisa kukuru, kana iwe ukagara pamwe nemukana wekutora kwenguva refu.
Kunyange zvazvo Kutya nemakaro Indaneti inogona kurira sekunakidzwa kwemari yemari, pane nyaya yakasimba inofanira kuitwa nokuda kwayo. Chimbofunga, somuenzaniso, kutsvakurudza kunofadza (uye zvichida wacky) kwakaenda kune nheyo dzenzvimbo yakabatana inozivikanwa sehutano hwemari. Somuenzaniso: Mamwe masayendisiti akadzidza kuti kakawanda makonzo anosungira sei mubariro mukutarisira kuwana mubairo: H hongu, iko kutsva patsva pamakwikwi emakato.
Kuchinja kwechokwadi kwehupfumi kwakauya muna 1979, apo mafilojikiti Daniel Kahneman naAmosi Tversky vakave ne "fungidziro yezvidzidzo," iyo inotsanangura kuti munhu mumwechete angave sei mungozi yokutengesa uye kuisa njodzi .
Mifungo yavo, nenzira, yakabatsira kusimbisa kugadzirisa kusarudzwa kunoratidzwa mufirimu "Moneyball," nyaya yechokwadi yakabva pakuvakwa kweboka reWalland A's baseball.
Nenguva pfupi, kutya nemakaro zvinogona kutengesa kushandiswa zvakawanda pane zvaunogona kufunga-kunyanya patinenge tisati tasangana nemanzwiro edu pachedu.
Kana zvasvika pakuisa mari, vanhu vanoita zvisarudzo nenzira mbiri. Nzira yekutanga inotarisana nemasvomhu nemafungiro, zvakadai semutengo-ku-kuwanikwa kwehuwandu (iyo inokuratidza iwe kana sangano rekambani rakapfuurirwa, risingadikanwi kana kuti rinokosha zvakakwana). Kana, iwe unogona kushanda kuburikidza nekutinhira manzwiro, nzira iyo vatambi vanoita nayo.
Kazhinji ndiyo mitambo miviri yakabatana. Zvichida wakatsvakurudza kutenga kweSUV nokudzidza mapeji emitengo, kushanda uye kuverengwa kweVateri Reports. Ipapo wakawana iyo ine zvigaro zvakatsva, uye yakarova bhokisi rako.
Izvo zvinoreva manzwiro anoshanda kumatanda, uye zvinokurudzira kuti nei vanhu vachizvitenga. Kunewo dzimwewo maitiro evadzidzisi vehutano vanoona, zvichibva pakurasikirwa kwekuvhiringidza kusvika kune basa rakanaka rekuchiva-ruchiva hama yepedyo, iwe ungati.
Zvinosuruvarisa, kutya kukuru uye makaro zvinobva mukushayikwa kwekugadzirira uye dzidzo. Uye nenzira iyo, kuisa mari hakusi yose yakasiyana nedzimwe nzira dzehupenyu. Nenzira yekufananidza, pane imwe nzvimbo pakati pekuora uye kushaya nzara yega, kudya kudya zvisina kuchena nekudzvinyirira kuzvidzora, inhema chimiro chinofadza chinonyatsorondedzerwa nemitemo yakanaka yekudya yakadzidza uye yakashanda munguva yeupenyu hwose.
Zvose izvi zvinotarisa mupfungwa kana Kutya uye Makaro Index zvinogona kubhadharwa nezvimwe zvinhu zvishanu: kwete godo chete, asiwo kudada, kuchiva, kuchiva, kukara uye godo.
Iyo inosanganisira zvivi zvishanu pane zvinomwe zvinouraya, zvakadaro. Iwe unogona kuchengetedza kutsamwa apo apo iwe wekutsvaga iwe uchifamba-mhanya-uye sloth pavanenge vachienda.