Kutanga kunopera gore ra2000, kuwedzera zvakanyanya kutengesa kwenhizha uye kuwedzera kwekutengeserana kwemari yemari pamatengo ematare kwakaita kuti kupararira kukurukure uye kuongororwa kwechikonzero chekutengesa mutengo kusagadzikana.
Mutengo Wakatengesa Mutengo
Iyo yakave yakanzwisisika kuti mutengo wemari inowanikwa zvakanyanya kuderera kupfuura dzimwe dzakawanda zvekutengesa chete nemhaka yezvimwe zvinhu zvezvematongerwo enyika zvinotaridzirwa semutengo wekutadza.
Mune mamwe mazwi, kana kudiwa kwemhangura kamwe kamwe kunosvika, iyo yose yakabuda haigoni kupindura pakarepo.
Mineso inofanira kubvumirwa uye inogadziriswa yakavakwa. Saizvozvowo, vatengi havagoni kugara vachishandura imwe simbi kune imwe kana mitengo inomuka kana kuwira.
Izvozvo zvinokonzera kuoma asi zvinowanzoonekwa seisina kunaka nekuti zvinounza kusava nechokwadi pamusoro pematengo emadangwana emangwana. Apo varairi nevatengi vasina pfungwa yakanaka yezvinotengeswa zvedzimba dzinogona kunge dziri, hazvikwanise kuisa mari mune zvitsva kana kushandiswa kwesimbi.
Maererano nepepanhau rakabudiswa neFederal Reserve muna 2012, makore gumi pakati pe2002 ne2012 akaona kuwedzera kwakanyanya kwekutengesa kwezvinhu zvekutengesa uyewo kuwirirana kwekutengeswa kwemari kune zvigadzirwa.
Kuyera Kudavira
Kuzvipira kunowanzoyerwa sekukura kudarika kuperevedza kwechinyakare kubva kune imwe nguva yakareba yepamusoro yekutengeswa kwesimbi yakapiwa.
Vanyori vanotsanangura kuti madhigirii emadhora akaderera anowedzera kuderedza mutengo wekutengeserana kwezvinhu zvishoma nokuti kutakura kwepamusoro kunotendera vatengi kuti vawane hurukuro yakawanda, nokudaro, kunongedza pamusoro pekutengesa kwemazuva mashomanana (semuenzaniso mhirizhonga yemagetsi kana kukundikana kwesimba).
Kuderera-kutora mari, zvisinei, hazvibatsiri pakushungurudzika kunoramba kuripo (semuenzaniso kuwedzera kudiwa kubva kumisika inotanga kubuda).
Vachiongorora kuongorora uku, dhiyabhorosi vanogumisa kuti kuwedzera kwekuwedzera kwemazana kwemakore kwakaguma nekuwedzera kwekushungurudzika kusingagumi kumisika yemari (kuverenga: kuwedzera kwekuda kweChina).
Epa Federal Reserve pepa rinosimbisawo kukanganisa kwenheyo yemari pamutengo wemari pamusoro pemasimba ekushandisa mari.
Mari Mazvikwereti uye Mutengo Wemari Mutengo
Munharaunda imwechete, Reserve Bank yeAustralia yakabudisawo pepa rakaderera simba rekutengeserana kwemari pamutengo wekutengesa kwekutengesa.
Mune pepa rino, vanyori vanopikisa kuti (1) nokuti kuwedzera kwemazana kwaive kwakakura kune zvimwe zvinhu zvakawanda kunze kwekutengeserana kwemari yepamari sezvavakanga vari kune vane ramangwana uye misika inowanikwa uye (2) vakawana hutano hwakakosha mumatengo emitengo pakati pezvinhu pasinei nekuvapo kwemari yemari, zvinyorwa zvinoramba zviri chinhu chikuru pakugadzirisa mutengo wezvinhu, kwete hukuru uye huri kukura hune simba hwemari.
Vanogumisa nokutaura kuti mushure me2000 "kuwedzera kwekutengesa kwekutengeswa uye kusagadzikana hakusi kwakamboitika, kwakaitika panguva yakawanda yekudyidzana kwenyika yose uye kudzvara kwezvakawanda muzana remakore rapfuura," uye kuti "(t) pano kushaikwa kweuchapupu hunogutsa (pa zvishoma kusvika nhasi) kuti misika yemari yakave nemigumisiro yakaipisisa pamisika yemitengo munguva dzekuenderana nehupfumi. "
Nzira Dzemari Dzemabhizimisi Dzakaita Sei Zviduku Zviduku
Kuongororwa kwemigumisiro yemisika yezvemari pamasana maduku, maduku, akadai se indium, bismuth , molybdenum kana nyika isina zvigadzirwa zvemidziyo, zvingangouya zvakasiyana zvachose.
Zvichienderera mberi nemamwe mabhuku, French think-tank CEPII yakabudisa pepanhau rinoshanda richiongorora kana mutengo wekutengeswa kwezvinhu zvinoratidza kusaziva kwechiroeconomic.
Vatsvakurudzi vakawana kuti zvigadzirwa zvinokosha segoridhe nesirivha, zvechokwadi kuumba, zvinoshandiswa kuva nzvimbo yakachengeteka munguva dzisina chokwadi. Zvimwe zvekutengeswa kwemakwenzi zvinoratidzawo kunzwisisana nekusaziva kwechiMacroeconomic. Iyi nguva dzisina chokwadi, dzakadai sepakati pegore ra2007 pasi rose, hazviiti kuti pave nemutengo mukuru wekusagadzikana.
Iko Mutengo Wakawanda weMakodhi Makamba
Pakupedzisira, National Bureau of Economy Research yakashanda pepa rakagadzirirwa naDavid Jack muna 2013 rakatarisa mutengo wekutengesa mutengo mumashamba ekutengeserana makumi matatu nemakore 160.
Zvakawanikwa naJacks - kuti pane kuwedzera kwehurefu uye hukuru hwemigodhi yekugadzirwa kwezvinhu uye kushambadzira kwekugadziriswa kubvira pakuwa kwehurongwa hweBretton Woods - zvakaita kuti ave nokutenda kuti nguva dzekusununguka dzakasununguka kutengesa mazana dzinobatsira pakuwanda uye kuwedzera kwekutengesa kwekutengesa .
Kana tsvakurudzo inofanirwa kutendwa, mitengo yezvinhu zvesimbi nezvimwe zvinhu zvakagadziriswa kupfuura kudarika kuwanda kwekutsvaga kubva muna 2000. Izvi hazvina kukonzerwa nekuwedzera, kusatarisirwa kwekutengeswa uye kuda kunoshungurudzwa, asi kuchinja zvinokosha mumusika wepasi pose.
Kunyange zvazvo kushandiswa kwezvinhu zvitsva zvemari (ramangwana, zvigadzirwa, mari yekutsvaga mari, nezvimwewo) zvakanzwika mumisika zhinji yematare, hazvina kuratidzirwa kuti izvi ndizvo zvinokonzera kusagadzikana.
Pakupedzisira, mutengo mukuru mukushambadzira kwezvinhu zvinowirirana nekupararira kwekusununguka kushanduka kuchinja mazinga. Sezvo China ichiendesa kune hukuru hwekushandura kwemaitiro, izvi zvinogona kuwedzera kune dzimwe nguva munguva yemberi yekushungurudza.
Sources:
Gruber, Joseph W. naRobert J. Vigfusson. Nharaunda dzeMitengo uye Kuda uye kuwirirana kweMitengo yemitengo. Bhuku reVakuru veState Reserve System. International Financial Discussion Papers. November 2012
URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2012/1065/ifdp1065r.pdf
Dwyer, Alexandra, George Gardner uye Thomas Williams. Global Commodity Markets - Price Volatility uye Financialisation. Reserve Bank yeAustralia. Bulletin June Quarter 2011.
URL: http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2011/jun/pdf/bu-0611-7.pdf
Joets, Marc, Valerie Mignon naTovonony Razafindrabe. Iko kusagadzikana kwezvinhu zvekutengeswa kwezvinhu kunoratidza kusava nechokwadi kwemakroeconomic here? CIPII Working Paper. March 2015.
URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-02.pdf
Jacks, David S. Kubva kuBust kusvika kuBust: A Typology ye Real Real Commodity Price mu Long Run. National Bureau of Economic Research. Working Paper. March 2013.