Chii Chakakonzera Dambudziko ReRuble Russia?

Ruble Crisis yeRussia uye Zvazvinoreva

Imari yeRussia yakanga iri yechisere muhukuru munyika yose nemazita makuru emiti yakasikwa ("GDP") inokwana $ 2.1 triliyoni muna 2013. Pakati pe2000 ne2012, nyika yakakurumidza kukura muhupfumi hwayo, inotungamirirwa nehuwandu hwezvigetsi uye kuwedzera kwemaoko . Vashandi vemunyika yose vaive nechivimbo chokuti Russia yakanga ichitsvaga kona uye kutengeswa kwekunze kwekunze kwaipinda munyika.

Gore rakatevera, hupfumi hweRussia hwakanga huri pamucheto wechinetso ne ruble ichiwa kunyoresa mararamiro akasiyana nemari semadhora eU.S.

Sarudzo yeRussia yenyika yepamusoro yekukwira chikwata chezvibereko nehuwandu hwehuwandu hwehuwandu hwehuwandu hwematongerwo enyika 6.5% yakakundikana kurwisa marara sezvo varimi vakarasika kuvimba mune mari. Kunyange zvazvo mari yacho yakadzorerwa kune imwe nzvimbo muna 2016, yakanga isati yadzokazve simba rayo risati rapfuura muna 2017.

Mafuta Anowira Mitengo

Hurumende yeRussia yakagara ichivimba nemutengo wemafuta asina mafuta uye gasi rechisikigo, sezvo zvinhu zvinowanzoita chikamu chinokosha chehupfumi. Muna 2013, kutengeswa kwemafuta asina kukwana uye maikirwo akaenzana akaenzanisa zvikamu zviviri kubva kune zvitatu zvekutengeswa kwenyika yose uye zvinopfuura hafu yehurumende yemari yakawanda, zvichireva kuti mitengo yakaderera inogona kuchinja zvikuru pfuma.

Muna 2014, mutengo wemafuta usina kukwana wakawa nehuwandu hwe50% nekuda kwekutsvaga kwekuda muEurope - misika yeRussia inokosha - uye kuwedzera kwekugadzirwa muUnited States Kukurukurira kukuru kwezvinetso zveRussia, zvisinei, zvichida apo OPEC yakaratidza kuti haizogadziri kutengeswa kwayo kuwedzera mitengo mukunonoka-2014.

Kunyange zvazvo sangano rekupedzisira rakagadzira michina, mafuta emafuta asina kuwanda achiripo asina kuwanikwa kune akakwirira.

Mafuta emafuta asingasviki angangodaro anoramba akaora mwoyo nokuda kwemazuva anotevera. OPEC kutungamira iri pasi pe50 muzana nenhoroondo dzakawanda kana iwe usingaverengi Kuwaiti neSaudi Arabia, iyo isingagoni kuve nechero yekuchengetedza zvigadziro pachavo.

US shale production yakaratidza kuti inogadziriswa pakupindura kwekudonha kwemafuta emafuta, sezvo zvikwereti zvekugadzira zvakaramba zvichiri kuchinja zvakare muna 2017.

Zvematongerwe Enyika

Chinetso chechipiri cheRussia chinopindirana nemitemo yayo yekunze. Mushure mokunge vapinda muUkraine mushure mekupera-February, 2014, US neEuro zvakagadzirisa zvikanganiso zvemari zvakawanda zvakakonzera kuti zvive nyore kuti makambani eRussia akweretere kune dzimwe nyika. Iyi mitemo yakasimbiswa mushure mekunge nyika inopindira muUnited States uye sarudzo dzezvematongerwo enyika dzeEurope muna 2016 ne 2017.

Mutungamiri Vladimir Putin akabvuma pachena kuti izvi zvigadziro zvezvematongerwo enyika zvinokuvadza zvikuru hupfumi. Kupfuura kwenguva yakareba, pane zviratidzo zvekuti zvipikiso izvi zvingave zvichiodza mwoyo mhuri kuva nevana vakawanda, izvo zvinogona kuva nemigumisiro yakareba kwenguva refu. Kune vakawanda ve 2017, pane 10 kubva muzana kusvika kumakore gumi nemaviri ekuberekwa, maererano neInternational Policy.

Dollar Chikwereti

Dambudziko guru rechitatu rinoshanda neRussia US dollar inokwereta chikwereti. Nekubata madhora madhora mabhiriyoni gumi nemazana mana emadhora muRuble-denominated debt uye $ 60 mabhiriyoni mune chikwereti chemadhora-chechi, nyika inogona kuguma kubhadharira zvishoma mu rubles kubhadhara chikwereti chayo mu US dollars. Mushure mokutengesa $ 6 bhiriyoni mukwereti-dollar muna June 2017, dhora renyika yezvikwereti inotarisirwa kuwedzera zvikuru.

Mamwe mapurisa emakwereti akachera chikwereti chekodzero yenyika kuchinzvimbo chakashata chinotevera chikwata cheUkraine uye inotevera makore maviri ekuderera. Kusava nechivimbo mune ruble mumigwagwa yeRussia kunogona kuwedzera kuwedzera dambudziko sezvo kudiwa kwemadhora emadhora eUnited States kubva kune vagari vomunyika yacho uye vatyairi vachida kubhadhara pazvisungo zvavo pamusoro penguva refu.

Kufambira Mberi

Russia yakabudirira kubudirira kubva mumakore maviri ekuderera kwegore muna 2016, asi dambudziko renyika rezvemari rinoramba riripo. Pane mukana wakareba wehumwe huri pedyo nehupfumi hwemari huchienda muna 2017 uye kuchinja kwehutano kunodiwa kuti urege kudzivisa matambudziko emangwana. Semuenzaniso, dzimwe nyanzvi dzinoti kuchinja kushandiswa kwekutsvaga kubva kune zvisikwa zvezvinhu zvakasikwa kusvika kune zvigadziriswe uye hupfumi hwevanhu hunogona kuisa nyika nzira iri nani.

Pasinei nokudiwa kwekutsvaga kwekutsvaga, Hurumende yeRussia yeHedheni yakapedza hafu yenyika ye Reserve Reserve kubhadhara zvikwereti uye kuzadzisa zvipikirwa zvebhajamiro muna December 2016.

Mari iyi yakawa kubva ku $ 50 biliyoni kutanga kwegore ra2015 kusvika ku $ 16 mabhiriyoni kusvika pakutanga kwegore ra2012. Bhizinesi reNyika uye mamwe masangano akanyevera kuti maitiro aya anogona kuve nemigumisiro yakaipisisa iyo hurumende inokwanisa kupa vanhu vayo.

Mhedziso

Dambudziko reRussian ruble raiva nezvikonzero zvakasiyana-siyana zvakakonzera kukanganisa kwekukurumidza kwekutenda, kusanganisira kushaya simba kwezvinhu, kukonzera ngozi dzenyika , uye kuwedzera kudiwa kwemadhora e US. Ne ruble ichiri kutengeserana pedyo nemiganhu yayo neAmerica muAmerica muna 2017, nyika inoramba ichitambura nematambudziko ayachete ayo akakonzera dambudziko uye pakupedzisira inogona kukonzera dambudziko rinotevera.

Vashandi vemunyika dzese vanogona kuve vakangwarira apo kuisa mari muRussia kwakapa dambudziko reRuble uye rinotevera. Dhora rakabhadhara chikwereti rinogona kuva rakaoma kushanda muRubles, asi zviyero zvinogona kutambura nekuda kwekuderera kwekushandisa simba pakati pevatengi nemabhizimisi. Aya maitiro angazopedzisira aendesa kune dambudziko rakafanana kana kuti kutsika pasi mumugwagwa.