Chii Chakatengeswa Nguva?

Iko kutengeswa kwemashamba kunokonzerwa nekuenzanisa uye kushandiswa kwemari

Sezvaunotanga rwendo rwako rwekutsvaga mari, iwe uchasangana nemazano akawanda ekudzivirira nguva yekutengesa; kukumbira kunyevero pamusoro pehungwaru hwayo, kutadza kwemitero, uye njodzi dzinogona kunge dzakaipa. Ngwarira izvi zvakanaka kana iwe uchida kuvaka upfumi uye urege kuparadza njodzi kana kusagadzikana kwekugara kwehupfumi. Kuti ndikubatsire kuita izvozvo chete, ndinoda kutora nguva yekukurukurirana nguva yekutengeserana kuitira kuti unzwisise zviri nani, kuziva kuti unoziva sei nguva yemusika kana iwe ukaiona (kunyange kana iwe uri mumufambiro wako), uye kuti ungauparadzanisa sei kubva mamwe, mazano akachenjera.

Ndeipi nguva yekutengesa?

Kuti uwane mhinduro, unofanirwa kunzwisisa kuti munenge mamiriro ezvinhu ose, kune zvikamu zvitatu chete zvinowanikwa nenzira iyo munhu kana sangano rinogona kushandisa kuwana chero ipi zvayo, ingava matanda , zvisungo , mutual funds , zvivako , mabhizimisi emabhizimisi , kana mazano pfuma. Regai tiwedzere pamusoro pavo pano.

1. Kuchengetedza: Kana nzira yekuenzanisa ishandiswa, munhu anoongorora kukosha kwemari ikozvino kwekuderedzwa kwemari inoyerera, pakati peimwe nzira, kuti asvike pane izvo zvinozivikanwa se "kukosha kwemukati". Iyo inopindura mubvunzo uyu, "Kana ini ndaine iyo yefa" kubvira ikozvino kusvika kumazuva ekupedzisira ", semumwe muvakidzani wekuda mari wekutsvaga, uye aida kuwana mukana wekudzoka kwe [x]% pagore, ndingadai ndaifanira kubhadhara kuti ndiwane huwandu hwakakosha hwekuita chiyero changu chaidiwa chekudzoka? " Zvinogona kutora makore gumi ekuongororwa, mari, uye yakashanda, kushandisa ruzivo kuti zvikwanise kushandisa zvakakwana nzira iyi nokuti inoda kuziva kuti zvidimbu zvikakanirana pamwe nekubata sei kuchengetedzwa kwakafanana nematokari sekunge aive emabhizimisi ega ega; somuenzaniso, kana mari yakawanikwa "yepamusoro" kana kuti inotambura nehuwandu husinganzwisisiki hwezvikwata zvinoratidza kuti kubuda kwemari hakusi kwechokwadi, kana kusagadziriswa, sezvinogona kutarisira. Hazvina mhosva kuti zvipi zvefashoni kana mafashoni anouya uye anoenda, pakupedzisira, chokwadi chinobudirira uye kuenzana, sechisimba, chinoshandisa simba razvo. Kuenzanisa ndiko chaizvoizvo: Ichokwadi icho chimwe chimwe chinhu chinotenderera pasinei nokuti vanhu kana zvikoro zvinoda kuregeredza sei. Iyo inogara ichikunda mumagumo.

1. Murairo kana Kugadziriswa Kwezvinhu: Kana vanhu vasingazivi kuti vangashandisa sei kukosha, kana kuti havana hanya nenguva iyo inoda kuzviita, vanogona kupinda mune izvo zvinozivikanwa senzira kana nzira inogadziriswa yekuvakwa kweporofiti. Chaizvoizvo, imwe mari yakawanda kana kuiswa muzana yemari inoyerera inoshandiswa kugara ichiwana zvinhu pasinei nemakambani kana kuti nheyo yemari, achitarisira kuti kukwirira uye kukanganisa kuchakwirirana kune makumi emakore. Nzira dzakadai sedhora rinodhura kuwedzerwa kana mari ye 401 (k) kuburikidza nekubhadharwa kwemitero ndiyo mienzaniso chaiyo yepasi. Kutora ruzivo rwehuwandu hwezvigadziro zvekutenga zvigadziro uye chikamu chekugadzirisa zvigadziriswa zvirongwa ndeimwe muenzaniso; kugara uchiine mari inotora kubva kuongororo yako kana kuti mari yekuchengetedza kuti uwane unhu mumabhizimisi aunoda kubata kwenguva refu .

1. Nguva yekutengesa : Nemusika wekutengesa, mutungamiri weporotiyoti kana mutengesi ari kufungidzira kuti mutengo , pane kukoshesa (iyo mbiri inogona kusiyanisa kwekanguva, dzimwe nguva kwenguva yakareba inotora kwemakore), ichawedzera kana kuderera. Iye zvino anoedza kuita purogiramu nekufanotaura izvo vamwe vanhu vachaita panzvimbo pekutsvaga pasi pemari inoshandiswa mumari uye zvimwe zvinoshandiswa zvinokosha zvaunoona mumutengo wekuongorora. Nguva yekutengesa inogona kuwaniswa pamwe nehuwandu, zvichida nenzira yakakwereta mari yakadai sechikwereti chemajeri kana kusarudzwa kwezvinhu, zvakadai sokutenga kwemafoni. Chikumbiro chikuru chemazuva emakemikari ndechokuti pasinei nekukwanisika kwekuzviita nguva dzose nemhando ipi zvayo yekubudirira, imwe chete kana mbiri kudana kwakakodzera, pamwe nehuwandu hwehutano hwakakwana, zvinogona kureva kuva mupfumi usiku hwose pane kugona kuzvipira kwemari kwemakumi emakumi emakore sevamwe vaviri nzira dzingada. Kuzviisa kune iyo call call kunokonzera kutarisira uye zvishuvo zvisingaverengeki zvakasvibiswa pamatombo ekukanganisa, kufungidzira, uye kusashivirira.

Kuti tinzwisise musiyano pakati pekuenzanisa, maitiro kana kushandiswa kwekutsvaga, uye kutengesa nguva, ngatidzokerei munguva yekuenda kunhau yakawanda yenyaya yekuongorora: Inotengeswa yemashamba emakore ekuma 1990.

Pakazosvika March ya2000, kutarisa kwehutano kwaive kwakanyanyisa kune dzimwe nzvimbo mumusika. Mari inobhadharwa pane zvakawanda zvebhuruu-chip stocks zvakadai saWal-Mart, iyo yakanga isisina mikana yekukura mumatongerwo emitengo nekuda kwekukura kwayo, yakanga yakazara 2.54% kana ichienzaniswa ne549% iwe unogona kuwana hurumende yenguva refu. Yakarongerwa neimwe nzira, kubudirira kwemusika kwainge kwakaputsika zvachose kusvikira iwe unogona kuwana zvakapetwa kaviri nekudzoka nekupaka mari yako munzvimbo yakachengeteka munyika yose pane kutora mutengesi mukuru kune imwe nyika. Ndezvipi zvingadai zvakasiyana-siyana zvevatengesi vanoenda kune chinhu chakadai?

1. Valuation-Drived Investors yakagadziriswa chikamu chakakura chemahofisi avo kubva kune mamwe mabasa kusvika kune zvimwe zvinhu, vasingadi kubata nemusanazve. John Bogle, wePrinceton-dzidzo yezvematongerwo enyika akadzidzisa Vanguard uye akaita purogiramu yekodzero yemufananidzo weimba mushure mokunge atanga S & P 500 yekutanga mari mumakore ekuma1970, yakanyatsoparadza yakawanda yezvigadzirwa zvake zvemari uye akaiisa muzvisungo, apo zvibereko yakanga iri yakakosha zvikuru sezvo yaisakwanisa kuve yakaruramisa kuyerwa kwemahomwe. Warren Buffett aiva nekambani yake , Berkshire Hathaway, akabatana ne giant insurance conglomerate inozivikanwa seGener Re iyo yakakonzera kugadzirisa zvakanyanya chiyero chezvikwata-kusvika-zvisungo muhofisi yekambani yekuda kuchengetedzwa kwezvikwereti zvakagadziriswa pairi kumubvumira kuchengeta iyo mitero yakatarwa yemitero pamatano ake anoyevedzwa eCoca-Cola, Gillette, uye Washington Post. Dr. Jeremy Siegel paWharton Business School akanyora e-eds mumapepanhau makuru anonyevera kuti kuyerwa kwemazana kwakange kusina kusimbiswa zvachose kubva pakuitika; kuti iyo yaiva yemabhizimisi echokwadi yemabhizimisi aisakwanisa kukoshesa mutengo wevatengi vaibhadhara zvichienderana nemamwe mabhizimisi ekubhadhara mari.

1. Murairi kana Masangano Akarongeka akaenderera mberi zvavakanga vachiita, vachibhadhara mitengo isinganzwisisiki yezvinhu izvo, kubvira panguva yekutenga, vakatora makore anopfuura gumi kuti vashandise kuongororwa kwavo asi izvo chaizvoizvo zvakagadziriswa zvakakurumidza pamusana pekuderera kwemazana ematengo akaitika pakati 2000 uye 2002 apo mavhiri acho aibva paInternet bubble. Izvi zvaive nemigumisiro yehurukuro yakawanda yemitengo kuitira kuti ruzivo rwese rwakanga rwuchiri rwunogutsa.
2. Nguva dzekutengesa dzakachengetwa kubhedha kune chero ipi zvayo uye mazano ose zvichienderana nehana yavo pachavo pamusoro pezvaizoitika. Vamwe vakashaya mari sezvo vashandi vanoona kuti pakanga pasina hwaro hwekukosha pane izvo zvikwereti zvavakanga vawana zvaizorora, zvichiguma nekuderera kwe 90%, 95%, uye mune dzimwe nguva 100% musati warasa kurasikirwa kwemutero. Vamwe vakave vapfumi, vachiperevedza dambudziko rose nekunyatsofanotaura nguva yekugumburwa. Vamwe vakaputsa kunyange. Zvizhinji zvemakambani ekugadzirisa mararamiro emari uye mari inoshandiswa muzvikamu zvekutengeserana zvemagetsi makuru edzimhosva angave akabatanidzwa mukusavapo kana kuti akabuda kunze kwebhizimisi mushure mokunge vatengesi vakasiya ivo vachichitevera kurasikirwa kwoutsinye hupenyu hunochinja.

Dzimwe nguva vatengesi vanovhiringidza kusarudzwa kunoshandiswa-kuendeswa mberi nemusika nguva

Murairi kana maitiro ekugadzirisa mazano avo vasina ruzivo uye vasinganzwisisi zvinopfuura zvigadziriswa zvinyorwa zvekuchengetwa kwemapurisa kazhinji vanoita sevanopesanisa nzira dzinotungamirirwa nematengesi nguva kunyange zvazvo pasina chinhu chakafanana pakati pezviviri. Nguva iyo iwe uchiti, "Ndiri kuenda kunotenga wega mu [shandisa mazai pano] nokuti ndinofunga kuti haina kutengesa maererano nekukosha kwemukati uye kuronga kuichengetedza kwemakumi emakore mashomanana anotevera sechikamu chepasportfolio yakasiyana", vanodanidzira , "Market nguva"! Rega kuteerera nokuti chipi nechipi chinobuda mumuromo mazvo kubva panguva iyoyo zvichida hazvina maturo.

Mufananidzo chaiwo-nyika inogona kubatsira. John Bogle kuVanguard akanga asingabatanidzi mumusika nguva apo akatarisa kudzoka mumatokari zvichienderana nekudzoka pazvisungo panguva yebhobho-dot-com uye akasarudza kuti vatengesi vaitarisana nekambo-mu-a-lifetime mispricing chiitiko. Akange asiri kusanzwisisa kana kufungidzira paakatora chikamu chake chechibvumirano kusvika pasi pe25% kana zvishoma, sezvaakaudza imwe musangano we Morningstar panguva iyoyo. Akanga asina hanya pamusoro pekuti mabhazi angave ari kumusoro kana pasi pasi mwedzi, kana kunyange gore, kubva panguva yaakapa mashoko uye kuchinja pfuma yake yega yega yega . Akanga achiziva kuti iyo iyo-nhamba yehuwandu yakanga isingagadziri uye yaimiririra kusaregererwa kwekunyengera kwekuita sane. Pakanga pasina nyama yepanyika (mari nemari) yehuwandu hwemisika yemashambasi (mutengo wemari).

Nzira yakanakisisa yekuparadzanisa pakati pekutsanangurira nzira uye mararamiro ekutengesera nguva ndeyokubvunza kuti: "Sei izvi zvichiitwa?" Kana mhinduro yacho ndeyokuti iyo inofanirwa ndeye kana kuti haina kukwezva maererano nemari yayo inoyerera uye zvinhu, iyo inotarirwa. Kana zviripo nokuti kune kutya kana tariro yokuti zvinhu zvichange zvichiwedzera / kuderera mumutengo weimwe chikonzero-macroeconomic, zvematongerwo enyika, zvepfungwa - ndiyo nguva yekutengesa.