Ikoko Kunotora Dollar, zvakare
Pamakore gumi apfuura, nguva dzechisimba zveDorlar simba dzakaitika muna 2008 sezvo dambudziko rekwereti rakatanga kuzarura, kwaiva nekushaikwa kwemarenda munyika uye kushatirwa kuenda kuUnited States Pfuma, iyo inonzi inofanirwa kuchengetedzwa kwepasi rose. Takaonawo simba rekuita dhora muna 2014 apo Federal Reserve yakatanga kukurukura nezvematongerwo emari ekusimbisa sevamwe nyika yose seEuropean Central Bank neBhange reJapan uye munguva pfupi yapfuura Bhange reEngland vave vachidzima mitemo yekukurudzira kukura uye kutsigira kutengeserana kwenyika .
Izvo zvinotyisa zvema dollar muhafu yepiri yegore ra2014 yaiperekedzwa neve pedo crash uye nemisika yemisika, kunyanya iyo yemakethe yemafuta. Pamberi kwezvinhu zvekudengenyeka kwezvinhu, taona zvinhu zvakasiyana-siyana zvemari semadhora eAustralia, dhora reNew Zealand uye dollar yeCanada inopesana nehodha yeU.S.
Kubva musi waNovember 9, 2016, dhora reAmerica (DXY) rakanyanyisa kusvika kumazinga asina kuonekwa kubva muna 2003, uye yakapiwa mwedzi 21 yekusimbiswa kubva munaMarch 2015 kusvikira munaNovember 2016, vamwe vanotya kuti doro rinorwadza simba ratakanga taona 2008, uye 2014 iri patiri zvakare.
Iyo Migumisiro yeTump
Masoko anowanzofambisa zvakanyanya apo kushamiswa kunovabata. Mifananidzo yezvemari inowanzoidza kudanidzira uku kunoshamisa. Kunyange zvazvo kukundwa kweTrump kumusorosoro wehutungamiri weUnited States we 2016 hakukwanisi tsanangudzo yezvakanyorwa zvekunyanyisa kukuru uye dzimwe nguva kunonzi black swan, inoratidza kuwedzera kwemaitiro ezviitiko zvisingaoneki zvichiitika.
Kusati kwasarudzwa svondo reUnited States, vazhinji vezvematongerwo enyika nevatengi vemisika vaifunga kuti UK inoteerera muEuropean referendum iyo yaizoita kuti " Brexit " yakanga isisakwanisi, asi 'mushure wekuvhota' musasa mumwe pakuguma. Pasinei nevhoti yekutarisana kweUnited States yakaitwa musi waJune 24, 2016, mutengesi unenge uine post-Brexit kushamisika kwekutsvaga. Izvi zvinokonzera kukanganisa kwakakosha mune kukosha kweBGP mumusika wemusika mwedzi mushure mekuti vatengesi vakawanda vatengesi vasati vanyatsoziva kuti chaizvo UK economy ichaenderera kunze kweukama hwetsika hwechibvumirano chekubatana kwemashamba eEU.
Kufambira mberi kune vhiki mushure mekusarudzwa kweMutungamiri weUnited States uye misika yemari inenge ichiita sehutano hwakakanganisika. Kuvhiringidzika kungave kuri kuwana mhuka nokuti vazhinji vanonzwisisa kuti mubatsiri wesarudzo ipi neipi inowedzera kuva nemafungiro akawedzerwa kupfuura mutungamiri kana kusarudzwa hurumende. Zvisinei, sezvo Donald Trump akazvimiririra semunhu ari kunze achida kutamba nemitemo yake, vazhinji vari kutarisira mapurogiramu ake aizodzokera kumashure kwemaitiro ekudyidzana kwepasi pose kuti abatsire dhora pamutengo weimwe hupfumi.
Mukudzidza nezveZimbabwe Exchange Markets 101, rimwe remasimba makuru anotarisa mari inokosha ndezvekutengeserana uye kugadzirisa kwemazana.
Kutengeserana kunobuda kubva kutenderera kwekutengesa kwezvinhu uye kutengeswa kunyika. Kuyerera kwemari kunouya kubva pakurongeka kwekutsvaga kwekutsvaga uye kubva kunze kwenyika.
Zvinonzwisisika, kutengeserana kunoitika nenyika inoonekwa seine mhedziso yakakwana kana yakaenzanisa mukugadzira kunaka kunoda kupfuura dzimwe nyika. Zvakawanda zvekuderedzwa kwemari kwakaitika nehurongwa hwekuita mari yakawanda yakatumidzwa sekupa mukana wokukwikwidzana kwekutengeserana kwavo kunotengwa pasi rose. Zvisinei, sezvatakatsanangura kare, zvizhinji zvehupfumi izvi zvakaguma nemari isina simba yakashata yakakonzerwa nekukanganisika kwemazana yezvino yakawanda.
Imari inoyerera inobva kunekurima kune dzimwe nyika nekuda kwenyika yakagadzikana umo hupfumi huri kugadzikana nehuwandu hwekudzoka huwandisa kudiwa kwepangozi yekutengesa kune imwe nyika.
Munyika dzakawanda dzenhamo huru yemari, apo mabhizimusi makuru akasarudza kuderedza maranho ekutora kusvika kune zero iri pasi apa mune dzimwe nguva mamiriro ezere zero, hupfumi nehuwandu hwekubhadhara huwandu hwaiwanzokwezva mari kubva pasi pose mune izvo zvaizivikanwa se "kushambadzira zvibereko."
The Inflation Component
Chirevo chekuwedzera kwezvakanakira ndezvimwe chikamu chezvinhu zvekutengesa mari. Imwe yenzira dzakanyanyisa kutora zvido zvekutsvaga ndezvekutengeserana kwekambani yekugadzirisa mari, uye kunyanya nekutsvaga zvibereko zvakakwirira. Zvibereko zvakakwirira zvinowanzotaurirana uye kusada kugadzirisa zvikwereti zvakagadziriswa zvinenge zvisingakwanisi kutengeswa zvinosvika kune izvo zvingadya simba rekutenga remuti wekutsvaga, kana kubudirira zviri nani kunogona kuve kune dzimwe misika semakambani kana zvigadzirwa.
IChitatu mushure mekusarudzwa kwehutungamiri vehurumende vakaona US 10-year Treasury note yakasimuka nemari yakawanda yepraday day yakanyorwa. Iyo inopinza inowedzera zvibereko zvakanyanya, izvo zvinowirirwa nehombodo mumutengo wefa iyo inosanganisira selloff muzvisungo pamwe nekubhadharwa kubhadhara mari.
Mhedziso iripo kana kuti manzwiro ndeokuti hukuru hweConstration muUnited States pasi pe mutungamiri wenyika yeRuban Republic yakavaka basa rekushandisa mabhizimisi ekugadzirisa zvivako zvingangodaro zvinotsigira mari inoshandiswa inogona kutungamirira kuhupfumi. Mamwe mahombekombe makuru emakambani achiri kurwisana neine disinflation kana kuperesa, uye akatarisa maitiro matsva ekugadzirisa mutemo wemari.
Izvo zvichitarisira kutengesa kweUnited States pamusana pekukwanisa kushandiswa kwemari kunogona kuunza mhirizhonga yemari yemari yakasiyana-siyana, yakafanana nezvataona muna 2014. Mhirizhonga yezvokutengeserana kwemari yakawana zita, 'taper tantrum' uye rakarumbidzwa kuti zvishoma nezvishoma kuderedza mitemo yemari yakasimbiswa kubva Federal Reserve kudzivisa kupesana kukuru muhupfumi hwepasi rose. Zvisinei, makore mashomanana gare gare, tinogona kuwana Fed mune imwechete conundrum, asi nezvimwe zvishoma.
Mari yeMari Divergence
Nzvimbo inonyanya kuonekwa yekuona kukanganisa kwematongerwo emari ekusiyana kwepakati iri pakati peBhanji reJapan uye Federal Reserve inofanira kuve neFeral Reserve yakatanga kufamba mairi kakawanda pagore. MunaSeptember, Bhizinesi reJapan rakataurira mazai ekugadzirisa magetsi [nyora link.] Zvavakagadzirisa ndezvekugadzirisa mutengo wemakore gumi pa 0%, iyo inobatsira kubatsirana kubhadhara kushandiswa kwehurongwa hwehurumende huripo huri nehuwandu hwekudzoka. Iyi yakagadziriswa mazai ekugadzirwa nenzira yehurumende yakaita kuti kutenga chikwereti chehurumende inogona kufungidzirwa sechimiro chehelicopter mari kana kupa hutengo husina hutengo-kusina mari muhurongwa hwehurumende.
Mumasvondo anotevera sarudzo dzemutungamiri weUnited States, takaona kupararira pakati peSouth America yemakore gumi nematanhatu ehurumende yehurumende uye hurumende yeJapan yehurumende yehurumende inowedzera neanenge makumi mapfumbamwe makumi maviri nematanhatu kubva ku ~ 150bps. Kuwedzera kwakanyanya kwenheyo dzehurumende dzekukweretesa chikwereti kunoratidza kusiyana kwemitemo yemari uye kwakaita chikamu chikuru uye inogona kuramba ichiita chikamu pakukwira kwakasimba kweDhailand / JPY kubva pata 99/101 yatakaona inobata muzhizha.
Mukuwedzera kune vasina simba yenyika yeJapan, mutengo weEUR unopesana nemadhora eAmericawo wakawa kusvika muna 2016 mushure mekusarudzwa kwehurumende yeUnited States. Vazhinji vari kutarisana nemakakatanwa ezvematongerwe enyika pamwe nevekune European Central Bank inogona kuderedza sezvo Fed ingave yakatsigirwa mune zvechisimba zvinomiririra kutadza kutengesa kwenyika sechikonzero chekutenga madhora eU.America kune mamwe mahomwe makuru.
The Trade Component
Basa rekushanda iro rakakonzera kuDollar simba nderimwe chikamu chekufungidzira uye chikamu chekugadziriswa kwemafungiro ekuti nyika dzakabatsirwa zvikuru nekutengeserana kusununguka dzinogona kukuvadzwa pamari yavo kumubatsiro weDhora reAmerica mumakore anotevera. Izvo zvine musoro zvekukakavadzana uku kunobva kune zvingangodaro kuchinja mune zvekubatana zvibvumirano pasi pekutarisira kwehurumende yeUnited States.
Musi weMuvhuro, November 21, 2016, Mutungamiri-akasarudzwa Donald Trump akataura kuti aizotarira kubvisa United States kubva kuTrans-Pacific Partnership kana TPP. Kunyanya, Trump yakashuma, "Ndiri kuzobudisa chiziviso chedu chinangwa chokubva kuTrans-Pacific Partnership, njodzi inogona kuitika kunyika yedu. "Pane kudaro, isu tichataurirana nezvekutengeserana, kutengeserana kwepasi kunobatanidza izvo zvinounza mabasa uye indasitiri kudzokera kumahombekombe eAmerica."
Iyo TPP ine Japan neUnited States pamwe chete nedzimwe hupfumi hweAsia dzine mikana yeChina yekubatanidza uye inoratidza chido cheMutungamiri-vakasarudzwa cheTump kuti vasabatanidzwe mune zvekutengeserana maitiro apo United States haina hutano hwakanaka huripo huno. Nguva pfupi pashure pokunge Trump ichitaura chinangwa chake chekutora US kubva muTPP, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe wekuJapan akacherechedza kuti iwe uchazoputsika kunze kwekubatanidzwa kweUnited States, "TPP ingave isina zvazvinobatsira kunze kweUnited States."
Kunyange zvazvo TPP iri mumwe muenzaniso, zvinobatsira kuratidza kuti United States inotanga sei kubvisa kunze kwekutengeserana kwekutengeserana kunogona kuisa chinangwa chekugadzirisa kwekushambadzira kwepasi rose pamusoro wayo.
Uyezve, semari shoma shoma kana avo vane mari yekutengeserana kwenyika yakawanda sezvinobva kune dzimwe nyika-vanotarisira kana nyika -vanotarisira nyika vanotanga kunzwa manzwiro ekutengeserana kutsamwa kwehutungamiri hutsva, imomo inogona kupfuurira kuve kusinganzwisisiki kwekutengeserana kutengeserana. Kuchinja kwakadaro kunogona kupfuurira kuona USD ichisimbisa uye kuderera kwevamwe mari iyo inotarisana nekunze kwekutengeserana nekubhadhara mari.
Zvokutarisira Kuenderera Mberi
Kana iri nzira shomanana pane izvo zvingafanira kutarisa, ramba uchitarisa purojekiti yeodhora kuti uone kana makore gumi nemana ekukwirira achienderera mberi. Chimwe chikamu chikuru chemari pamakambani ekucherechedza chichava chikwereti chehurumende uye kunyanya zvakapararira pakati pekukura kwakafanana nehurumende chikwereti seSU kusvika kuJapan 10 gore rinobudirira kupararira.
Kana chibage ichi chikapararira uye chichipararira chichiramba chichiwedzera, zvingangodaro chiri kuratidza kudarika mamwe madhora simba uye zvichida Yen utera pamwe nekushaya simba kune dzimwe dzisina kunaka kufarira mari . Imwe chikwereti chekwereti chekutonga ndeye US 2-year crop yield. Iyo yeUnited States yemakore maviri inowanikwa inoonekwa semutongi wekufungidzira kweState Reserve Reserve mumakore anouya. Pamwedzi miviri yekupedzisira, taona US 2-year yekutengesa inotangira kubva kune ~ 75 nheyo dzepamusoro kusvika pedo 110 nheyo dzepamusoro. Tichifunga nezvekuda kweFederal Reserve kukwira ne 25 nheyo dzepamusoro pavanoona zvakakodzera, kukura kwakadaro mumakore maviri emichero kunoratidza 1½ kukwikwidzana neFederal Reserve yakatengesa kubva musarudzo kusvika muna 2018.
Imwezve kuwedzera kwezvibereko zvemakore maviri ingaratidza humwe hutsinye hunoitwa neFederal Reserve mushure mekufungidzirwa kwemazana emitengo, iyo inogona kuwedzera kukonzera kwakasimba muDhora reAmerica kuti rikurumidze.
Mukuwedzera kune chikwereti chakakwana, vatengesi vanogona kutarisa kushanda kwemashamba ekubudirira kune US Dollar. Kubva pakupera kwegore ra2016, misika yakawanda inowanzobuda iyo inogona kupa humwe huwandu hweDynamic simba pahuwandu hwekuwedzera huchava South Rand Rand, Mexican Peso, uye Chinese Yuan .