Dollar Strength: Sei Yakasimba Kwazvo Iye Zvino?

3 Zvikonzero nei Iye zvino yava nguva yakakura yekufambira kune dzimwe nyika

Dhora rekuAmerica rinoreva kuti kukosha kwechiroro kwakakwirira kune dzimwe mari kana zvichienzaniswa neyakare. Izvi zvinoreva chimwe chezvinhu zviviri. Inogona kureva kuti dhora iri pedo nepamusoro pezvakaitika kare . Nguva yose yakakwirira ye dollar yaiva 163.83 musi waMarch 5, 1985 (sekuenzaniswa neDX.F). Izvozvo ndezvekuti US Federal Reserve yakasimudza mari yakadzvara yakawanda kusvika pa9.00 muzana yekurwisana nechekugadzirisa . Nokuwedzera, ona Historical Fed Funds Rate.

Nhoroondo yakaderera kudhora iyi yaiva 71.58 musi waApril 22, 2008. Izvi zvakaitika nguva pfupi mushure mokunge Bear Stearns ibhidha isiri . Panguva iyoyo, vatengesi vakatizira ku euro nokuti vaifunga kuti dambudziko rezvemari raive rakakwana kuUnited States.

Dhora rakasimba rinogonawo kureva kuti dhora rinowedzera pamusoro penguva pfupi. Dhora racho rakasimbisa 25 muzana pakati paJuly 2014 neMarch 2015.

Nei Dhora Iri Yakasimba Parizvino?

Dhora racho rakasimba kwazvo nokuda kwezvikonzero zvitatu. Chokutanga, Fed yakagumisa hurongwa hwemari yakawanda sezvo hupfumi huri nani. Yakamira kuwedzera kuwedzerwa mari . Izvi zvakamanikidza kubhadhara kwedhora ndokuwedzera kukosha kwayo.

Izvo Zvakabhadhara zvakasimudza chikwereti chezvibereko munaDisemba 2015. Izvi zvakasimbisa kukosha kwedhora. Zvaireva kuti US Treasury inotora inogona kukwezva mari yepamusoro yezvibereko munguva pfupi. Izvozvo zvakawedzera kudiwa kwemadhora. Vakasununguka vakawana mukana wekudzoka pamadhora emari kudarika pane mari inokwidza mari, iyo yakabhadhara chikamu chechibereko chechidiki.

Chechipiri, European Central Bank yakaderedza kukosha kwe euro kuburikidza nekuita zvakasiyana. Zvematongerwo enyika kusagadzikana muEuropean Union uyewo yakaodza euro. Heino Euro Dollar Conversion uye Its History .

Dhora racho rinowedzera kusimbisa apo euro inotadza. Ndiyokuti euro inokwana 57.6 muzana yehuwandu hweD USDX.

Nokudaro, chero chii chinoita kuti euro iwedzere simba ichaita kuti dhora racho riwedzere uye zvinyorwa. Imwe yedzimwe mari mune USDX haina zvishoma kudzvinyirira kukosha kwedhora.

Pakupedzisira, vatengesi vatengesi vakawedzera simba reodhora. Vakashandisa mukana wekuwedzera kuparadza euro uye kusimbisa dhora.

Iyi ndiyo nguva yezvinoitika kubva muna 2014 kusvika muna 2016.

2014 : MunaJanuary , Fed yakatanga kugadzira purogiramu yakawanda yekugadzirisa . Dhora racho rakaramba riri mumiganhu yayo yekutengeserana ya2013 inotenderera makumi mapfumbamwe nemakumi matatu pamwedzi mitanhatu yekutanga ya2013. Saizvozvowo, euro inoshandiswa inenge madhora $ 1.3767. MunaFebruary , mauto emashure ekumadokero muUkraine akakuvadza hurumende yahwo, achidyara mbeu yematambudziko eUkraine . Muna March , Russia yakanyora penisula yeCrimean muUkraine. MunaEpril, yakatumira masimba kutsigira pro-Russian separatists kumabvazuva kweUkraine. Uyewo muna March, Fed yakaratidza kuti yaizoona kuwedzera kudyidzana mari yakawanda pane imwe nguva pakati pegore ra2015.

Musi waSeptember 4 , ECB yakatanga kuzivisa kuti yaizoshandura shanduro yayo yeEQ. MunaNovember , iyo ECB yakawedzera iyo yaizochengetedza mari yakaderera yemari.

MunaDisemba , euro yakawira $ 1.21, sezvo vashandi vaivhundusa chikwereti chechikwereti chechiGiriki chaizokumanikidza Greece kubuda muEurozone. Somugumisiro, dhora rakasimbiswa kune 90.03 pakupera kwegore.

(Chinobva: "Euro Inonyanya Kuita Gore Rakapera," The Wall Street Journal, January 6, 2014).

2015: MunaJanuary , iyo ECB yakazivisa kuti yaizotanga QE munaMarch. Musi waMarch 12 , yakatanga kutenga zvisungo. Yuro yakawira $ 1.0524 (aine makore gumi nemaviri) musi waMarch 13. Sezvo euro yakawa, dhora rakasimuka. Iyo USDX inotora 52-mavhiki masere e100.390 musi waMarch 13, 2015. Dhora yakasimuka 25 muzana kubva musi waJuly 11, 2014, pasi pe 80.187. Yakavhara gore pa 98.01.

Kubva muna 2015, vatsvakurudzi vakafanotaura kuti euro yaizoparadzana ($ 1.00). Somugumisiro, hedge mari uye vamwe vatengesi vepamberi vakatanga kutapudza euro. Izvi zvaisanganisira Bridgewater Associates, Tudor Investment, Brevan Howard, Moore Capital Management, Caxton Associates uye Gavea Fund. (Ikoko: "Iyo Smart Smart Inogadzirirwa Sei Kuti Uwane Mutengo," CNBC, March 23, 2015.)

Vatengesi vakakurudzira euro vakavatengesa pamusika.

Izvi zvaireva kuti vakavimbisa kuti vaizovatenga mune ramangwana kuti vagadzirise mari yavakakweretwa kubva kune avo ve forex brokers. Vakatarisira kukosha kwe euro kwaizowira panguva iyoyo. Kana zvakadaro, vakachengetedza mutsauko sepfuma yavo. Nokuda kwezvimwe, ona Maitiro Ekudhura Euro .

Chimwe chikonzero chinotungamirira simba remurairi muna 2015 chakanga chiri kuderera muChina yezvepfumi . Zvinetso zvinokonzerwa nekweretheni zvinotyisa vatengesi munzvimbo yakachengeteka yedhora. Nokuda kwezvimwe, ona China Inobatsira sei US Dollar?

MunaDisemba, Federal Open Market Komiti yakasimudza mari yakawanda yemari kusvika ku255.

2016: MunaJanuary naFebruary, Dow yakawira kusvika 15,660.18. Icho chakaita kune yepamusoro yeFid nhamba yemari. Vashandi vaisada kutengesa mafuta emafuta , kuyerwa kweyuni uye mhirizhonga muChina yemusika .

Dollar Strength Index

Dhora reAmerica yeUnited States ndiyo inowanzoenzanisa simba remadhora. Ichi chikafu chinotarisa kukosha kwedhora kune zvitanhatu zvakanyanya-kutengesa mari. Aya mari mari yose inoshandisa kuchinja kushandiswa kwemari. Kuwanda kwekutengeserana kwavanoita neUnited States kunosarudza kuchinja kwehuwandu uye kuyerwa kwemari imwe neimwe. Izvi zvinokonzera njodzi kuti makambani eUnited States ane mari iyo.

Mari Symbol Nyika Weight
Euro EUR Eurozone 57.6%
Yen JPY Japani 13.6%
Pound GBP Great Britain 11.9%
Dollar CAD Kanadha 9.1%
Krona SEK Dhenimaki 4.2%
Franc CHG Siwizarendi 3.6%

US Dollar Forecast

Nguva yakareba, chikwereti chikuru cheUnited States kusvika kuGDP chichatoita kuderedza dhora racho. Pamberi pematambudziko emari, ndizvo chaizvo zvakaitika. Sezvo chikwereti cheUnited States chichikura, kukosha kwedhora kwakawa.

Munguva yematambudziko, vatengesi vanoisa mari yavo muUnited US Treasurys. Izvozvo zvakawedzerwa kukosha kwedhora. Izvo zvakaderedzawo zvido zvekugara kwenguva refu. Izvi zvakabatanidzwa nehurongwa hwekuwedzera kwemari nemari yekusimudzira hupfumi hweUnited States. Izvo zvakaita kuti vamwe varimi vave muHarareurys.

Zvimwe pa US Dollar Strength