Akataurawo imwe pfungwa yatakabata kwenguva pfupi uye iyo ndiyo nguva yakareba yekukohwa mari uye kuti ine zvakakosha sei zvinoenderana nekukosha kwaunofanira kushandisa kuti uone kukosha kwekambani.
Nguva Yenguva Yakawanda Imari Bonds
Sevanhu, isu tine chido chakadzama chezvibvumirano; mitemo inopikisana nezvimwe zvinhu zvose zvinofanira kuyerwa. PaWall Street, zvose zvinoenzaniswa nehuwandu hweHurumende yehupfumi. Izvi zvisungo, zvakabudiswa neHurumende yeHurumende kusimudzira mari yezuva nezuva kune zvido zvinoshandiswa, inonzi i "risina mungozi" yehuwandu nokuti hapana mukana wakakodzera wekusavapo. Sei? Congress ine simba rekuteresa.
Kana hurumende isingakwanisi kuita zvisungo zvayo, vamiririri vedu kuCapitol Hill vangangoda kuvhara mari yemitero. (Zvechokwadi, mumamiriro ezvinhu akadaro, kutengesa kwenyika kungave kwakatanga kutenderera kureva kuti kunyange iwe ungadai wawana mari yako zvakare, kukosha kwemazana emadhora aya zvichienzaniswa nehuwandu humburger kana mabhokisi ekuchenesa kwaunogona kutenga kwaizove zvakakosha zvakanyanya.)
Penguva yechinyorwa chino, mari yeMakore makumi matatu yemakore yakabereka 5.22%. Dzidziso inotevera yezviitiko izvi ndeyekuti mumwe wevatengesi munyika yose anofanira kuzvibvunza (kana kuti pachake) kutanga uye zvakakosha: "Kana ndikakwanisa kuwana 5.22% pamari yangu pasina kutora chero njodzi, ndeipi purogiramu yandinofanira kukumbira nayo mari ye riskier yakadai sematokisi? "
Zvechokwadi, vanhu vakawanda havaiti mubvunzo iwoyo ivo pachavo. Pane kudaro, vanogona kutarisa zvikamu zveCoca-Cola uye vagoona kuti pamutengo-kusvika-kuwana chikamu che 23 (izvo zvinoreva kuwana mubereko we 4.34%) havadi kuisa.
Kana kuti, vanogona kugumisa kuti Coke ane tarisiro yekuwedzera - asi mari yehupfumi haiti - uye inokwanisa kukonzera dutu mumamiriro ezvinhu ekupararira kwenyika.
Vanhu vachiri kunwa kunwa soda, kunyange pakati pekuora mwoyo kukuru nokuti, sezvakambotaurwa nekambani, "inotengesa zvigadzirwa."
Risk Premium
Misiyano pakati pemari yekukohwa kweimwe sendima kana yefa uye nguva yakareba yekushushikana kwezvisungo inozivikanwa se "premium premium". Zvinofanirwa kuisa mukati mezvinhu zvakasiyana-siyana zvakadai sokutarisira kwako kwekuwedzera, kukura, chokwadi chaunacho pamusoro pekushambadzira kwemari yeramangwana (ndiko kuti, chokwadi iwe uri pamusoro pezvamangwana rako remangwana rekuwana mugove wega wega, zvishoma zvehutano premium iwe ungangodaro uchida.) Chaizvoizvo, iyo yakajeka zvikuru yekutsanangurira kuti mari yakawanda iripi iwe uri kuwana ye dollar imwe neimwe inotengeswa.
Nyanzvi dzezvehupfumi dzinoda kutora purogiramu inofungidzirwa yengozi yemusika panguva ipi zvayo uye ichienzanisa nayo kune yakapfuura. Kazhinji, izvi zvinogona kuratidza kupararira kwepamusoro kana kusaderedzwa. Funga kumashure kubhodhi-dot-com. Pakukwirira kwayo, S & P 500 yaive nemutengo wemari-ku-mubhadharo inopfuura 60. Iyi inowanikwa mubereko we 1.67% chete. Panguva iyoyo, mukana wekusarwaridzana wakanga uri 590%.
Izvozvo zvinoreva kuti vanhu vakakwanisa kuita 5,90% pasina mungozi, asi vakapa mukana wekupukunyuka kubva kune ngozi, makambani matsva akaumbwa, vakangoda 1.67% chete!
Hazvishamisi kuti vashandi venguva yakareba vashandi vaive vachiridza nyevero. Munguva yehutano hwakadaro, zvisinei, chikonzero chacho chinowanzosekwa seCassandra; kushungurudzika kusinganzwisisi kuti zvinhu "zvakasiyana nenguva ino."
Ichokwadi-Muenzaniso Wepasi Wokuti Izvi Zvingave Zvakuponesa Sei Mukurasikirwa
Ndokusaka zvichipesana nevatengesi vane ruzivo kuti vanzwe zvimwe zvisinganzwisisiki zvinotapurirwa nevatadzi uye vaongorori zvakafanana. Pamberi pokubva kwaRobert Nardelli kutanga kwegore ra2007, ndakanyora nyaya pamusoro pematambudziko ari paDep Depot.
Pfungwa yacho yaiva (uye yakasara) kuti varimi vakatsamwira kwaari nokuda kwekubhadhara mari yakawanda, pasinei nekupeta zvakapetwa zvikwereti, zvikamu , mubayiro wega wega , kuchengetwa kwezvitoro, uye kuparadzanisa kune dzimwe nzvimbo dzakabatana, nokuti mutengo wematengo wakanga waparara mukati.
Nekuremekedzwa kwose kwakakodzera, ndechokuti, panguva ye bubble, migove yevatengesi yakazosvika benzi-zvachose benzi - kuenzana kwemakumi makumi manomwe kuwanikwa.
Ndiyo mubayiro wezvibereko zve 1.42%. Dai Nardelli neboka rake risina kuurayiwa zvakanaka, kuputsika kune chokwadi kwaizove kwakanyanya kudarika kupfugama kwe50%. Ani naani anotenga sengo pamatengo iwayo anofanira kunge achiongorora musoro.
Asi, semunhu anoputa uyo anokwidza Philip Morris kana ane chirwere cheshuga chakanyanyisa chinozvidza McDonald's, vazhinji vevashandi ava vaiva nekutsigira kwekunyunyutira uye vakasarudza mukuru weGurukota seanopisa. Enron, Worldcom, uye Adelphia, izvi hazvisi.
Pano, semutsara kubva kubva kare, chinokanganisa hachisi munyeredzi, asi nesu. Kudai vatengesi vaifunga nezvehukama huri pakati penguva refu yehutano yehutano uye mubereko wekukohwa, vangadai vakazvichengetedza zvakanyanya mari yezvemari uye yekushungurudzika mupfungwa.