28 Booms uye Busts Kubvira muna 1929
Izvo zvipfeko uye mhirizhonga ndezvimwe zvikamu zvinopfurikidza zvekukura kwezvemupfumi nekuderera. Ndiyo nzira iyo vanhu vazhinji vanotsanangura purogiramu yebhizimisi kana yehupfumi.
Mukufamba kwenguva, kukura kwakanaka. Kana huwandu hwemugadziri hwemukati huri kuramba huri mune hutano hwemazana maviri kubva muzana , hunogona kugara muchikamu ichi kwemakore. Iyo inofambidzana nemakambani emombe , kuwedzera kwemaimba emari, kukura kwemari uye kusakosha kwebasa.
Icho chikwata chechikwata hachigumi kunze kwekuti hupfumi hubvumirwa kupisa.
Ndiyo apo pane zvakawanda zvakanyanya kuwedzerwa mumari , zvichiita kuti zvigone kuwedzera . Sezvo matengo achikwira, kushamwaridzana kusina musoro kunotora varimi. Purogiramu yekukura kweGDP inokura pamusoro pe4 muzana kune maviri kana kupfuura inowanikwa mumutsara. Iwe unoziva kuti uri pamagumo echinhu chepamusoro apo mhizha inotaura kuti kuwedzerwa hakuzomboperi, uye kunyange munyori wezvokudya ari kuita mari kubva pakusvibiswa kwebasa razvino.
Chikamu chekugadzira chakafanana nehupenyu muMiddle Ages. Yakanga isina njere, yakaipa, uye ine tsitsi zvishoma. Inowanzogara kwemwedzi 18 kana pasi. GDP inotendeukira kusina kunaka, kushaya kwehuwandu kwehuwandu hunoita 7 kubva muzana kana kupfuura, uye kukosha kwekutsvaga kwekutsvaga kunowira. Kana iyo inopedza mwedzi mitatu, inowanzowedzera. Inogona kukonzerwa nehutengesi hwemisika , inoteverwa nemusika webere . Nokuda kwezvimwe, onai Maitiro Ako Kushandiswa Kwebasa Kwematokari Kunogona Kuita Recession .
Zvinokonzera
Masimba matatu anosangana pamwe nekugadzira mhirizhonga. Ndiyo mutemo wekupa uye kudiwa , kuwanikwa kwezvinhu zvikuru uye zvatinotarisira mune remangwana.
Simba rekushandisa ravatengi rinotungamirira chikwata chechikwata. Mhuri ine chivimbo nezveramangwana, saka vanotenga zvakawanda ikozvino, vachiziva kuti vachawana mabasa ari nani, mararamiro epamusoro epamba uye kuwedzera kwezvikwereti zvemari gare gare. Izvi zvinoreva kuti makambani anowedzera kuwedzerwa, izvo zvavanoita kuburikidza nekuhaya vashandi vatsva. Guta guru rinowanikwa nyore nyore, saka vatengi nemabhizimisi zvakafanana vanogona kukwereta pamadhora akaderera.
Izvo zvinokurudzira kudiwa kwakawanda, kusika ruzivo rwakanaka rwekubudirira.
Kana kudiwa kunobva kunze kwekugovera , hupfumi hunogona kupisa. Uyezve, kana pane mari yakawanda yekudzingisa zvinhu zvishoma, zvinokonzera kutengesa . Kana izvi zvikaitika, vatengesi uye mabhizinesi vanoedza kuisa mari pamusika . Havana hanya nedambudziko rekuwana kuwana.
Kunyanya kuisa chivimbo kunokonzera ruvara rwechigadzirwa. Vashandi nevatengi vanovhunduka apo misika yepamusoro inogadzirisa kana kunyange kuparara. Vatengesi vanotengesa zvikwata , uye vanotenga mari yakachengeteka yekushambadzira iyo inowanzorega kurasikirwa nehuwandu, zvakadai sezvisungo, ndarama, uye US dollar. Sezvo makambani akarayira vashandi, vatengi vanorasikirwa nemabasa avo uye vanoramba kumutengesa chero chinhu kunze kwezvinodiwa. Izvozvo zvinokonzera kuderera kunowedzera. Nokuda kwezvimwe, ona Zvikonzero Zvokutora .
Chirwere chekugadzirisa chinopedzisira chichimira pachako. Izvo zvinoitika kana matengo akaderera kwazvo zvokuti vashandi vayo vanoramba vachiine mari vanotanga kutenga zvakare. Izvi zvinogona kutora nguva yakareba, uye kunyange kutungamirira kuora mwoyo. Kuvimba kunogona kugadziriswa nekukurumidza nechepakati pebhandi yemari yemitemo uye hurumende yehurumende yehurumende . Nokuwedzera, ona Chii chinokonzera Boom uye Bust Cycle?
Nhoroondo
Bhuku reNational Bureau of Economic Research rinopa nhoroondo yezvakaitika uye zvidzidzo. Inoshandisa zviratidzo zvezvemari kuti ienzanise maitiro nemagetsi.
Izvi zvinosanganisira nhamba dzeGDP, basa, mari chaiye yebhadharo, kushandiswa kwemabhizimisi uye kutengesa kwekutengesa .
Kubvira muna 1929, pave nemakore makumi maviri nemaviri. Pakati pevhesi, mabhoom apera mamiriyoni 38.7 uye mabhasi akapera mwedzi 17.5. Nokuwedzera, ona NBER Cycles.
US Boom uye Bust Cycle Kubva muna 1929
| Purogiramu | Nguva | Comments |
|---|---|---|
| Kuputika | Aug 1929 - Mar 1933 | Nhamba yemakambani ekuputsika , kukwirira kwemitero, guruva . |
| Boom | Apr 1933 - Apr 1937 | FDR yakapfuudza Mutsva Mutsva . |
| Kuputika | May 1937 - Jun 1938 | FDR yakaedza kuenzanisa bhajeti. |
| Boom | Jul 1938 - Jan 1945 | Hondo Yenyika II kuunganidza. |
| Kuputika | Feb 1945 - Gumiguru 1945 | Nguva yorugare kuderedza. |
| Boom | Nov 1945 - Gumiguru 1948 | Employment Act. Marshall Plan. |
| Kuputika | Nov 1948 - Gumiguru 1949 | Mushure mekugadzirisa hondo |
| Boom | Nov 1949 - Jun 1953 | Hondo yeKorea kuunganidza. |
| Kuputika | Jul 1953 - May 1954 | Peacetime demoblization. |
| Boom | Jun 1954 - Jul 1957 | Kuderedza kuderedzwa kudii ku 1.0%. |
| Kuputika | Aug 1957 - Kubvumbi 1958 | Fed yakawedzera kuwandisa ku 3.0%. |
| Boom | May 1958 - Mar 1960 | Fed yakaderedza rate kusvika ku 0.63%. |
| Kuputika | Apr 1960 - Feb 1961 | Fed yakawedzera kudha ku 4.0%. |
| Boom | Mar 1961 - Nov 1969 | JFK kukurudzira kushandisa. Fed yakaderedza rate kusvika 1.17%. |
| Kuputika | Dec 1969 - Nov 1970 | Fed yakawedzera kudhura kusvika 9.19%. |
| Boom | Dec 1970 - Oct 1973 | Fed yakaderedza rate kusvika ku3%. |
| Kuputika | Nov 1973 - Mar 1975 | Nixon yakawedzera mubhadharo wemitengo. Yakagadzirwa negoridhe . OPEC mafuta embargo . Stagflation . |
| Boom | Apr 1975 - Dec 1979 | Fed rawered rate to 4.75% |
| Kuputika | Jan 1980 - Jul 1980 | Fed yakawedzera kuwandisa kusvika ku20% kusvika pakupera kwekutengesa. |
| Boom | Aug 1980 - Jun 1981 | Fed rakaderedza rates. Nokuda kwezvimwe, ona Historical Fed Funds Rates . |
| Kuputika | Jul 1981 - Chivabvu 1982 | Kudzoka kwe 1980 kuburitsa. |
| Boom | Dec 1982 - Jun 1990 | Reagan inoderedza mutero wepamusoro uye yakasimbisa kubhadharwa kwemari. |
| Kuputika | Jul 1990 - Mar 1991 | Yakakonzerwa ne 1989 Kuwana Mari Nekuda Mari . |
| Boom | Apr 1991 - Feb 2001 | Yakaguma ne bubble muInternet investments |
| Kuputika | Mar 2001 - Nov 2001 | 2001 Kudzoka kunokonzerwa nokuputsika kwemusika wekutengeserana, huwandu huripo |
| Boom | Dec 2001 - Nov 2007 | Derivatives yakagadzira imba yehutu muna 2006 |
| Kuputika | Dec 2007 - Jun 2009 | Subprime Mortgage Crisis , 2008 Financial Crisis , Great Recession |
| Boom | Jul 2009 - Iye zvino | American Recovery and Reinvestment Act uye kutengesa zvishoma |