Kudzoka: Tsanangudzo uye Chinangwa

2 Tsanangudzo dzekuregera: Ndeipi Izvo Zvakarurama?

Tsanangudzo: Kudengenyeka "inguva yekudarika kwehupfumi inopararira munyika yose, inogara kwenguva refu kupfuura mwedzi mishomanana." Ndiyo tsanangudzo yepamutemo kubva ku National Bureau of Economic Research. Iyo NBER ndiyo yega yega isingabatsiri inoparidzira apo kudzokera kunotanga uye kunomira. Iyo ndiyo inyika yenyika yekuyera zvikamu zvebhizimisi .

Iyo NBER inotanga zvinhu zvishanu kuti ijekese kana kuderedza kwemari kuchiitika.

Izvi ndizvo zviratidzo zvekutarisa kana uchida kuziva kana hupfumi huri mumatambudziko.

Chiratidzo chikuru kune GDP chaiye . Izvozvo zvinoshandisa US inoshandiswa mune zvehupfumi sezvinotariswa nehuwandu hwezvakaberekwa mumba Izvo zvose zvinoshandiswa mabhizimisi uye vanhu vari muUnited States. Inonzi yakakosha nokuti migumisiro yehutsika yezvokudya inobviswa.

Apo huwandu hweGDP hwekuwedzera hunochinja hunoipa, hunogona kunge huri kuderera. Dzimwe nguva kukura kunenge kusina kunaka saka kuchinja zvakanaka mune imwe nharaunda inotevera. Dzimwe nguva Bureau of Economic Analysis inogona kugadzirisa GDP kuongororwa mumutsara wayo unotevera. Zvakaoma kuziva kana uri muhutano huchibva muGDP chete.

Ndicho chikonzero NBER ichienzanisa nhamba dzinotevera pamwedzi. Izvi zvinopa kuongororwa kwakawedzerwa kwekuwedzerwa kwehupfumi.

• Nheyo yechokwadi inotora hutano hwemunhu hunoenderana nehutsika. Kudhinda kubhadhara, zvakadai seSocial Security uye kubhadharwa kwehutano, zvinobviswawo. Kana mari chaiyo inopera, iyo inoderedza kushambadzira kwevatengi uye kuda.

• Basa sekuenzaniswa nemwedzi wemabasa . Heino kuongororwa kwemazuva ano mabasa statistics .
• Utano hwehuwandu hwekugadzira , sezvakaenzaniswa neWork Production Report.
• Kugadzira uye kutengesa- kutengeserana kwekutengesa kunogadziriswa kutengesa.
• Iyo NBER inotarisawo kuongororwa kwegore negore kweGDP inopiwa neMacroeconomic Advisers. (Mhedziso: "Nzira yeChirungu yeKutora Dating Dating," NBER.)

Cherechedza kuti yemusika wekutengesa haisi chiratidzo chekuderera. Nhamba dzemabhosi dzinofanirwa kutarisirwa mari yekambani dzevanhu. Vatarisiri vemitambo dzimwe nguva vane tariro, uye dzimwe nguvawo vane tariro. Nokudaro, misika yepamusoro inonyanya kuoma kupfuura hupfumi. Kana pane kuwanda kwemari, mutengo wemabhizimisi unowanzopinda mumusika webhebhu (20% inoderera). Izvo zvakashata hazviwanzoitika. Tsvaga apo Apo Stock Market Crash Inogona Kuita Recession .

Iyo NBER inoshandisa unyanzvi, kutonga, uye unyanzvi hwevatungamiri vayo kuti vaone kana nyika iri mune imwe nyika. Nenzira iyo, haisi kubhadharwa ne nhamba. Inogona kushandisa dhiziro yemwedzi kuti ione kana nhamba yepamusoro yakaitika, uye hupfumi huchangotanga kuderera. Izvo zvinobvumira kuti zvive zvakanyatsojeka uye panguva yakakodzera muzviyero zvayo.

Sei uchivimba neNBER? Ndiyo nyanzvi yepamutemo yekutsvaga kwezvemari uye kupesana. Vatungamiri vezvematongerwo enyika vezvematongerwo enyika, kusanganisira Nobel Prize vahwina, vanoumba Bhodhi. Iine vanopfuura 1 300 economics uye vaprofesa vebhizimisi vanoita tsvakurudzo. (Ona "Komiti Yokudanana Dzebhizimisi," NBER, July 2003. "Bhizinesi Rokunyora Nhamba YaMarch 2001," NBER.)

Tsanangudzo muEconomics: Zvikoro zvakawanda zvezvemari zvinotsanangura hupfumi sezvikamu zviviri zvakatevedzana zvekusava nekuwedzera kweGDP .

Yakatanga kuve yakataurwa naJulius Shisken, uyo-Komisheni weBusiness of Labor Statistics , muna 1974. Zvisinei, aive akanyanya kunyatsojeka:

1. Kupera muzvakawanda zvakakosha zvemugadziri wezvigadziro zvezvikamu zviviri zvakatevedzana.
2. A 1.5 muzana inoderera muGNP chaiye.
3. Kupera mukutengesa kwemwedzi mitanhatu.
4. A 1.5 kubva muzana inopera mune basa rekurima rekurima.
5. Kupera kwemabasa mune zvinopfuura 75 muzana yemabhizimisi kwemwedzi mitanhatu kana kupfuura.
6. Iko pfungwa mbiri dzinomuka mubasa risina basa kusvika kumazana matanhatu kubva muzana.

Komisheni Shisken vakakurudzira ichi chirevo chekuwanda nokuti vanhu vazhinji vakanga vasingazivi kana nyika yakanga iri mumatambudziko muna 1974. (Chinyorwa: "Kuchinja Kwebhizimisi Purogiramu," New York Times, yaDecember 1, 1974.)

Ndiko nokuti kwaiva kutambura kubva kune stagflation . Kunyange zvazvo GDP yakanga isina kunaka, mitengo yakanga isati yawa.

Zvisinei, izvi zvaive nekuda kwezvinangwa zvehupfumi zveNixon , kunyanya kutora US kubva kune imwe yegoridhe . Izvo, pamwe chete nemubairo / mutengo wekutengesa, yakagadzira kaviri-chiyero chekuwedzera . Nokuwedzera, ona GDP negore .

Tsanangudzo yeKukuru Kudzoka

Iyo NBER yakashuma iHarare Recession pamusoro peyechitatu yegore ra2009. Yaiva yakaipa zvikuru kubva pakuderera kukuru kweHurumende , uye ine zvishanu pamakwikwi ezvoupfumi, mana ayo akaitevera, muna 2008 uye 2009 . Yaivawo yakareba, yakagara kwemwedzi 18.

Imwe NBER yakati kudengenyeka kwe2001 kwakapera pakati paMarch 2001 -November 2001 kunyange zvazvo GDP kukura yakanga isingakonzerwi nehafu chete panguva iyoyo. (Ona Bhizinesi Rokuwedzera Kuwedzera uye Kurongeka, "NBER.)