Kuparidzira mashoko kunoita kuti misika isvike - asi guruva rinogara richigadzirisa
Izwi rekutsvaga mumusika nhasi nderokuvhiringidza. Nevhotera razvino re Brexit , vatengesi vemakambani vari kutarisa kusanzwisisika kukuru uku kubudirira kunounza kuhupfumi hwepasi rose uye zvinorevei kune ramangwana rezvemari yemari yepasi rose. Zvinoratidzika kuti munhu wese ari kufanotaura nezvemahombekiti akawanda ekudengenyeka kwepashure mushure mehupfumi hwematongerwo enyika / zvematongerwe enyika.
Ngatimbomirai, tora kufema, uye tiise izvi nenzira yakajeka.
Kunyangwe iyi ndiyo nguva yokutanga mukuyeuka nyika yekutanga-nyika inenge ichiita sarudzo mukuda kwereferendum kuti izvipire muhupfumi, izwi rokuti "risina kumboitika" rinowanzotaurwa pamusoro pekusava nechokwadi mune zvehupfumi hwenyika. Kukundikana kweLehman muna 2008 kwakanga kusati kwamboitika, sekudengenyeka kweInternet bubble, kushaya huwandu hwekuda, uye kushambadzira kwemusika wekutengesa muna 1987.
Zvinoratidzika kuti tinoramba tichiwana zviitiko zvisati zvamboitika mune zvehupfumi zvepasi pose uye nenzira imwe chete kwete kungopona chete, asi kufambira mberi uye kubudirira.
Nhau yakakurumbira mumisika ndeyokuti kushaya simba kuri kuwedzera. Asi, chokwadi chiri nyore ndechokuti kushaya mutengo mumatengo - kureva, kutarisa kuti mutengesi hunosimuka uye hunowa - hausi chinhu chitsva uye hachisi chinhu chokushanda. Uye, humwe uchapupu hunoratidza kuti chiyero chinowanikwa chekusagadzikana chakasara zvisingashanduki pane makore 90.
Vazhinji vezvemari vanodzidza kushaya chimiro kuburikidza nekuverenga kwemaitiro akaparadzana ekudzoka. Ichi chiyero chekuwandisa chinonyanya kuratidza kuti kutendeuka kwakadini kunoparadzaniswa kubva kuhuwandu hwehuwandu hwekudzoka. Semuenzaniso: Kana gore negore rinodzoka kune makore matatu gore rakange riri 8 kubva muzana, 10 muzana, uye 12 muzana, muzana wekudzoka waiva 10 muzana uye kudzoka hakuna kuchinja zvakanyanya kubva pachiyero ichocho.
Kune rumwe rutivi, taura kuti kudzoka pamusoro pemakore matatu emakore kwakaderera 10 muzana, 10 muzana, uye 30 muzana. Sezvakamboitika, chiyero chegore rezvekudzoka chaive chegumi, asi kuparadzanisa kwemashoko kubva pachiyero ichi chaive chakakwirira.
Iye zvino, chokwadi, varairimi vakawanda havadi kuisa njodzi uye vanosarudza kuderera zvishoma. Izvi zvinoreva kuti, vanosarudza kuderera kwepamusoro kwepamusoro kune kukwirira kwakasiyana-siyana. Zviri nyore kwazvo kurara usiku apo kusavimbika kuri pasi. Nhoroondo yakawanda ndeyokuti yakakwirira-nguva dzekutengeserana, kuwira mitemo yekutengesa, kutengesa-iwe-iwe pachako kutengeserana, uye 24/7 nyaya dzezvemari dzemari zvakakonzera kuwanda kukuru kwekusagadzikana.
Asi kungoona kwekuwedzera kwekutsamwa kwakashungurudza kwakaunza vatyairi vakawanda kuti vaite zvisarudzo zvemanzwiro uye zvisingafungi izvo zvakavatengesa munguva refu.
Mune imwe nyaya inouya mu Journal of Wealth Management, Professors Ken Washer naRandy Jorgensen kubva kuCreighton University, uye ini, ndakaona kuti kana ichienzaniswa pamwedzi wega wega, kusagadzikana MuS & P 500 hauna kuchinzwisisa nenzira yakareba kwenguva yakareba. Mwedzi wekutsvaga kwekutsvaga sezvakaenzana nekuparadzana kwakakwana kwaipfuura zvishoma ne4 muzana muna 1940 uye yaive inopfuura 4 muzana muna 2014.
Dambudziko nderokuti vatengesi vanowanzotarisa panguva dzinopfupika kupfuura mwedzi uye pano uchapupu hwakasiyana zvikuru. Kana ichienzaniswa zuva rega rega, kushaya simba kwakapetwa kanopfuura kaviri kubva muna 1940. Zuva rega rega kuparadzana kwaive pasi pe 0,50 muzana muna 1940 uye yakasvikira kusvika 1,00 muzana muna 2014.
Asi, nei vanhu vachifunga nezvekuchinja kwezuva nezuva, pane kutora nguva yakareba?
Mhinduro ndeyokuti, nokuti vanogona.
Chimwe chezvinhu zvikuru zvakachengetwa nemaAmerica ndezvehutano mumisha yavo. Asi, vanhu havafungi nezvekuchinja kwezuva nezuva mumatambudziko edzimba. Sei? Nokuti havana kupiwa mukana. Misiyano neimba yako uye yekubvisa mari yako ndeyekuti iwe hauna mumwe munhu akakukomborera iwe mutengo pavanotenga imba yako maminitsi ose - ita iyo yese yechipiri - yezuva. Kana usiri kuronga kutengesa imba yako, sei uchifanira kutarisira kuti imba yako inokosha kubva kuminiti kusvika kuminiti, zuva nezuva kana kunyange mwedzi wega? Saizvozvowo, kana iwe usingarongorori kubvisa munguva yemberi iri pedo, sei uchifanira kufungisisa kuti chii chinotarisirwa nekambani yako yekubvisa mari?
Munguva pfupi yapfuura mutambi wenyika John Oliver akaita chikamu pane purogiramu yake yakakurumbira Last Week Tonight pakurayira basa. Nyaya iyi yakasimbisa kuti vatengi vanofanira kutora maonero ekureba kwenguva refu uye verengai kukosha kwemakambani avo ekurega basa nguva nenguva sezvo ivo "Google Gene Genean achiri mupenyu?" Izvozvo zvinoreva kamwe chete pagore.
Vashandi vekugara muhurumende vane nguva refu kwenguva refu vanofanira kungotora nzira yekuda mari inodhura kuenzanisa mubhadharo yebhadharo yekodzero yekodzero. Izvi zvinoreva kuti vanofanira kugara vachiisa mari kumwedzi wega wega mune imwe nzvimbo dzakasiyana-siyana dzezvikwata zvakadai seS & P 500 - uye, vanoita zvikwereti izvo zvinorayirwa kana mutengesi unoenda kumusoro, pasi kana kumativi.
Ikokunyadzisa mukuzotevera kwevhotera re Brexit ichangobva kuitika yaiva nhoroondo pamusoro pokuti kushandiswa kwekutsvaga kwakangove kwakadini. Kunyange zvazvo misika yakawira zvinoshamisa musi weChishanu, pfuurei 3.6 muzana muS & P 500 yaingova iyo 180 yezuva rakaipisisa munhoroondo. Kuti uise izvi zvinyatsojeka, S & P 500 yakavhurwa muna 2016 nekodzero ye2038.20 uye yakapedzisa kutengesa Chishanu musiki we2037.41 - zvisingashanduki. Kana iwe wakanga wakarara pakutanga kwegore uye wakagadzika musi weMugovera mangwanani kuti uone kukoshesa kwepodfolio yako zvichida ungadai wakadzokera zvakare kunorara.
Sezvo maBrits angadai ataura vasati vasarudzwa neBrexit, uye vakataura kune zvizvarwa zvakapfuura, "Ramba wakadzikama uye ramba uchienderera mberi."
Uye, nenzira, Gene Hackman achiri mupenyu.
Robert R. Johnson ndiye mutungamiri wevakuru veAmerican College of Financial Services, gwaro rakagamuchirwa, rekupa zvikoro rinopa ruzivo rwakatangwa muBryn Mawr, Penna. muna 1927. Dr. Johnson akanyora magwaro anopfuura makumi mapfumbamwe ezvinyorwa zvinyorwa zvemashoko uye ari mubatanisi weInvestment Banking yeDummies, Invest With The Fed, Strategic Value Investing uye The Tools uye Nzira dzeKuronga Kwekutsvaga.
Lou Carlozo ndiye mutori wenhau wekutsvaga mari ye US News & World Report.