A Tarisa Maitiro Ekuti Federal Reserve Inogona Kuita Sei Varimi
Heano nzira shanu dzeSweden Reserve dzingakonzera mararamiro anobudirira uye zvinorevei kuvashambadziri mumisika.
1. Simuka muChinhu Chakatadza
Makambani mazhinji emakambani emakambani akabudirira ave achibatsirwa nemari yakaderera yeUnited States kuburikidza nekukwereta mumadhora uye kubhadhara chikwereti nemari yakasimba yekunzvimbo. Maererano neBan International for Economic Settlements, paive ne $ 1.1 trillion muhurumende yehurumende-yezvisungo yakabudiswa nemakambani asina kukonzera mabhizimusi anotengeswa muna Q3 2015 achienzanisa ne $ 509 bhiriyoni chete pakupera kwa2008 - kuwedzera kukuru munguva yepasi- interest rate.
Nzvimbo dzepamusoro dzeAmerica dzinokwidziridzwa dzinogona kuita kuti zvikwereti izvi zvive zvakaoma kushanda. Semuenzaniso, mari yeBrazil yakakonzerwa nekunyoresa mari inopesana nedhora muna 2015, izvo zvakaita kuti zvive zvakaoma kumakambani achiita mari yekubhadhara chikwereti mu US dollars. Izvo zvinowedzera mari zvinogona kutungamirira kuhuwandu hwezvikwata zvezvekambani zvinogona kukuvadza kubuda kwemashamba emakambani emabhengi ehurumende uye ETFs saShares Emerging Markets Corporate Bond ETF (CEMB).
2. Kudenga Kunze Kwokumwe
Mazhinji emakona ari kubuda akaona kukosha kwekutsvaga kwekune imwe nyika kubva mugore ra2008 rezvemari. Ne US uye yeEurope zvinyorwa zvekubhadhara pazvikwereti zvinyorwa, vatengesi vanowirirana kusvika kune yakakwirira inobereka mashizha emakambani anobuda uye zvisungo zvekusimbisa mahofisi avo anounza. Aya emakakatengesi emakambani ehupfumi akava kuvimba nekuwedzera kwekuwedzera kwekutsvaga kwekune imwe nyika kuendesa kukura kwehupfumi ndokuona kuwedzera kukuru pamusoro pemakore akawanda apfuura.
Nhamba yepamusoro yekutora inogona kukonzera vashandi vakawanda kudzokera kuUnited States uye kuwedzera kubuda kwemari kubva kumisika yakabuda. Izvi zvishoma zvekutsvaga kwekune dzimwe nyika zvinogona kuisa mabheki ekukura kwehupfumi mune hupfumi hwakawanda hunovimba nemari yakadaro. Izvozvo zvinonzi Fragile Five hupfumi zvakave zvichionekwa sevanonyanya kunetseka kune rudzi urwu rwokuderera - Turkey, Brazil, India, South Africa, neIndonesia - uye kurongedza kunyatsoteerera.
3. Kuwa Kwemari Mitengo
Vakawanda misika yakabuda inoona kukoshesa kwakanyanya mune mari yavo. Semuenzaniso, mari yeD USD / ZAR yakasimuka kubva pasi pe1000 muna 2012 kusvika kune yepamusoro ye17.00 munaJanuary 2016 sezvo dhora reAmerica rakaderera neRouth South rand. South Africa yakakwanisa kuwedzera kuwedzera uku mumari yaro yemari yekubhadhara mari yakawanda yeUnited States kuti ibhadhe zvirongwa zvakasiyana-siyana zvekuwedzera nekuwedzera mari yehurumende.
Nhau dzakaipa ndeyekuti rand - nemamwe mabhizimusi emari ekuwedzera - atotanga kuwira pakati pezvaanotarisira kuti Federal Reserve inowedzera kuwanda kwemari . Aya masimba anogona kuita kuti zvive zvakaoma kune dzimwe nyika dzakadai seSouth Africa kuti dzidzorere madhora avo anokonzerwa nemadhora-imwechete iyo inotarisana nemakambani akawanda ega.
Mhinduro chete inogona kunge iri kurega kuti mari yayo iwedzere kukosha, iyo inogona kubatsira kunze kwekutengesa asi kukuvadza kudyara.
4. Changamire Inotarisirwa
Vazhinji vanobva vatengesa hurumende hurumende vakatora mari shoma yeUnited States yokukwereta mu US dollars. Semuenzaniso, South Africa yakakwereta zvikuru apo dhora raive rakaderera uye rakashandisa mari yekubhadhara mari yekukura kwayo uye zvigadziro zvebhajari. Aya masimba akabatsira misika yakawanda inokura kunze kwemazana emakore akapfuura, asi urongwa hunogona kudzoka kuzovanyengedza apo dhora rinowedzera kukoshesa uye madhora aya anowedzera kudhura.
South Africa ine imwe yenyika yakakura pane mari inenge iri kunze kwenyika, izvo zvinoreva kuti mari yekusachengetwa kwayo yakawanda kudarika mari inodiwa kuti ishumire chikwereti chayo chekunze uye kubhadhara kutengesa. Aya masimba anogona kutungamirira kune chikamu chechikwereti chakaderera uye mari yakakwirira yekukwereta inofambira mberi kana dhora rekuAmerica richikoshesa richikosha.
Mari yepamusoro yakakwereta inogona kuita kuti zvive zvakaoma kuwana mari yekuda mari yekukurira mukukura.
5. Lower Dollar Commodities
Mazhinji emakakatengi emakambani emari ari kuvimba nezvinhu zvekutengesa kukura kwavo mune zvekurima. Semuenzaniso, Brazil neRussia zvinonyanya kuwanda nemafuta asina mafuta uye gasi yemafesi, asi chiChili nePeru vanovimba zvakanyanya pamhangura nezvimwe zvinhu zvakaoma. Zvinhu zvekutengesa zvakasimudzirwa mumakore mashoma apfuura kubvira pavakatengwa muAmerica madhora uye mamwe madhora aidiwa kutenga 'kukosha' kwakadaro kwezvinhu, vachiisa mari yakakwirira kudarika kwavari.
Kana dhora richikwira richikosha, idzi simba rinogona kuchinja uye zvinhu zvinogona kuona kuwedzera kwekunetseka. Iyi ndiyo nhau dzakaipa dzemisika dzinotarisana nekuti zvinhu zvakawanda zvinotengeswa muUS $ madhora, izvo zvinoreva kuti ivo vachaita mari shoma muzvinyorwa. Zvishoma zvishoma zvinogona kushandura pakukura zvishoma nezvishoma uye kuongororwa kwepamusoro kwekambani-makambani anonyanya kushandiswa mune idzi dzinokosha dzinotengeswa pfuma yemari.
The Bottom Line
IWatch Reserve inobatsira zvikuru pamisika yemitambo, asi varimi vakawanda vanokundikana kuona kuti inonyanya kukosha kune dzimwe nyika . Makambani anotengesa anonyanya kushungurudzika kune izvi kuchinja mumitengo yemari uye kuongororwa kwedhora maererano nemari yemunharaunda. Icho chikwata ndechekuti Federal Reserve yakagamuchira izvi uye inosanganisira zvinonetsa zvepasi pose mumagariro ayo emitemo - asi izvi hazvirevi kuti hazvizovi nemigumisiro.