Zvaunotarisira Muna 2018 uye Nekunze
Kukura Zvikuru Munyika Yose
Imari yepasi rose iri kutarisana zvikuru uye yakaenzana nekukura kwehuwandu hunoenda muna 2018, maererano neOEDC's Economic Outlook. Kunyange zvazvo humwe humwe humwe hwehupfumi hukuru hwepasi huri kukura muna 2017 uye huri kutarisirwa kukura muna 2018, kuwedzera kwegore negore kunoramba kuri pasi pekutanga-kunetseka kwenguva uye yekare yakagadziriswa. Nguva yakareba-dambudziko matambudziko akadzivisa husimba, humwe huripo, uye humwe hupfumi huri nani.
Maererano nehuwandu hwehuwandu hwehuwandu hwehuwandu hwehupfumi huri pamusoro pehutano husati hwavapo, asi izvi hazvina kubhadhara mari chaiyo, sekutanga kwegore ra2018. Pasina kuwedzera muhomwe uye kutengesa kwenyika , OEDC inofunga kuti kukura munyika idzi kunopera muna 2019. Kune uyewo madhigirii epamusoro kana chikwereti chemakambani nevemumba chakagadzirwa nehuwandu hwehuwandu hwemari, iyo inomutsa mibvunzo pamusoro pekusimudzira kwekuwedzera kwemakore anotevera.
IOEDC inofanirwa kuwedzera kukura kwehupfumi muna 2019 kunyika dzakawanda, asi India yakanga yakasiyana zvikuru.
Iboka racho rinotaura kuti India yakakura pa6,7 muzana muna 2017 uye inotora kusvika 7 kubva muzana muna 2018 uye 7.4 muzana muna 2019. Izvi zvinoshandiswa nehuwandu hwezvinhu zvinotarisirwa kusimbisa kukohwa, kubereka, nekukura. Brazil neRussia zvinotarisirwawo kuti dzibude, asi United States inononoka ku 2.1% muna 2019.
Low Correlation uye Volatility
Pasi pose pamusika wekutengeserana kuwirirana kwakadzokera kune dzimwe nhepfenyuro dzakasununguka mushure mekusvika rerekodhi yakakonzera kuwirirana mushure mekutambudzika kwemari muna 2008. Ichokwadi, kuwirirana kwehutano ndiko kwakaderera kwave kweve kwemakore anopfuura makumi maviri kudarika G20. Semuenzaniso, mari yekuAmerica yakave yakashanda nesimba, iyo yeEurope zvigadzirwa zvave zvichitengeserana pakukura kwekutsvaga, pasinei nemamiriro ezvinhu akanaka macroeconomic, kukosha kwezvinhu zvishoma, uye kuongorora mari shoma.
Panguva imwecheteyo, kusagadzikana kwakaramba kwakaderera kune dzakawanda pamisika yekutengeswa kwenyika yose. IChicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) kuwedzera kwechirwere ichi chave chiri pasi pe10.0 mugore rapera, izvo zvisingasviki hafu yenguva refu yakareba 20.0 muvhareji muUnited States. Zvakakosha kuziva kuti zvimwe zvepakati pekutsvaga zvingave zvakakonzerwa nekusiyana-siyana kwechikwata, zvinoreva kuti nhamba yepamusoro yepamusoro inogona kunge ichikudzikisa kumira mune dzimwe nzvimbo.
Ngozi yezvematongerwo enyika, mabhizimusi makuru, uye zvigiso zvemauto hazvina kunyangarika, asi vatengi vanofunga kuti hupfumi hwepasi pose hahuna hunoonekwa kune zvinetso izvi sezvazvaiva kare. Kurwisana neNorth Korea kunogona kuchinja zvikuru pamisika, kana zvichiitika, asi njodzi huru inogona kunge iri bhanhire guru rinomisa pasina inflation, izvo zvingaita kuti kukura kuwedzere uye zvimwe zvinhu zvinogona kutungamirira kumatambudziko ekutengesa uye kushambadzira kwemisika.
Mazano kuvarimi
Kudyidzana kwakaderera pakati pemakambani ekuenzanisa pasi rose kunoreva kuti vatengesi vepasi rose vanogona kubatsirwa nekusiyana-siyana. Mushure mezvose, vanogona kubatsirwa nekusava nehanya mune zveporofiti yavo pasina kupa zvibayiro zvinopa kupa hupfumi hwehupfumi munyika yose. Dhiversification inogonawo kuve yakasununguka kana hupfumi hwepasi rese hunova nehuwandu hwemadhora emadhora kubva kune mihombe yakaora mwoyo kana kukwanisa kukanganiswa kwemari.
Vashandi vanofanirwawo kuve nechokwadi chokuti vanogadzirisa podfolio yavo nguva dzose. Semuenzaniso, simba rekuAmerica rekushanda kwemashizha rinoreva kuti vazhinji vanoita zvekutsvaga mari kune dzimwe nyika vanogona kuwedzerwa kumaoko eSouth America pakupera kwe 2017. Kuisa mari yakawanda muzvikwata zveEurope kunogona kuvabatsira kana kuyerwa kuripo pakati peU.S. neEurope. Iyo yakawedzerwa kubatsirwa ndeyokuti nzvimbo yepamusoro yehupfumi inobatsira zvakasiyana pakuitika kwepasi rose.
Nzira yakanakisisa yekuisa mari yakafanana pamakambani epasi pose inoshandiswa kune dzimwe nyika kushandiswa-kutengesa mari (ETFs) kana kuti mari inobatanidza iyo inochengetedza mararamiro ega ega. Semuenzaniso, Vanguard MSCI EAFE ETF (NYSE: VEA) inopa hupfumi kune zvisiri zveAmerica, kusanganisira 54 muzana inosvika kuEurope, 38 muzana inotarirwa kuAsia, uye hupfumi muzana kutengesa kune dzimwe nyika dzisiri dzeAmerica North America, dzakadai seCanada uye Mekisiko.