Zvose Zvaunoda Kuziva Nezvekuwedzera Kwemabhizimisi Emabhizimisi Makuru
Muchikamu chino, tichatarisa mitsva inotengesa misika uye kuti vashandi venyika dzepasi rose vanogona kuvashandisa sei kuona mikana, pamwe nemimwe mienzaniso yezviitiko zvebhizimisi pabasa.
Ndezvipi Mabhizimusi Anotenderera?
Maitiro emabhizimusi - kana maitiro ezvoupfumi - anomiririra kukwira kwepamusoro uye kuderera kwezvinhu zvakakomba zvemugadziri (GDP) munguva yakareba kwenguva refu. Izvi zvinosanganisira kukura, dambudziko, kutengesa, uye nguva yekudzorera inodzokorora kwenguva.
Kuwedzera kunowanikwa nekuwedzera kwekugadzirwa kwezvinhu , kutengesa kwenyika , uye kuderera kwechikwereti; matambudziko anozivikanwa nekutengeswa kwematokari uye kukanganisa; kusunungurwa kunoratidzirwa nemitengo yekudonha uye chikwata chapamusoro chechibereko; uye, kupora kunoratidzwa nehutori hwekugadziriswa uye kutengesa kwemari uye mari. Izvo zvinodzokorora apo kuwira kwekutengesa kunotungamirira kuwedzerwa kushandiswa, izvo zvinotungamirira kune mari yakakwirira, uye pakupedzisira, kudzokera kune kutengesa kwezvinhu uye kuwedzera kwekugadzira.
Somuenzaniso, United States yakaona nguva yekuwedzerwa kusvika muna 2007 apo subprime mortgage crisis. Dzimba rakatevera dambudziko racho uye rakagara kusvikira pakutanga-2010 apo rukadzo rakatanga. Kubvira panguva iyoyo, hupfumi hweUnited States hwakawana nguva itsva yekuwedzera. Izvozvi zvinodzokorora kakawanda munyika yose yenyika, kusanganisira dot-com kukanganisa mumavambo-2000 uye nekuda kwenhau dzezvematongerwe enyika muma1970 ne1980.
Emerging Market Market
Emerging market yebhizimisi maitiro anozivikanwa zvakasimba ne-countercyclical nyaya dzemazuva ano, kushandiswa kwezvokudya izvo zvinodarika mari yekusagadzikana, uye "kamwe-kamwe kumira" mune mari huru, maererano naMark Aguiar weYunivhesiti yeRochester. Izvi zvinowanzobva pakuchinja kwehurumende kunowedzera zvinotyisa mari, mari, uye maitiro emabhizimisi, izvo zvinowedzerawo kukanganisa kwehupfumi hwenyika.
Inotengeswa mumakambani emari inowanikwawo kune kunze kwezvinhu kune hupfumi hwakasimudzika hunovimba zvikuru nekushandisa mukati. Semuenzaniso, vazhinji vanobuda mumisika vanovimba nemabhizimisi ekutengeserana kuti vatungamirire hupfumi hwehupfumi. Kukosha kwezvinhu izvi zvekutengeserana kunokonzerwa nekubatanidzwa kwekuda kwekunze uye kushandiswa kwemari. Izvi zvinotsanangura kuti nei nyika dzakadai seChina dzichida kunyatsochenjerera kukosha kwemari yavo.
Kuwana Mikana
Bhizinesi rekutsvaga kwekutsvaga mumakambani akabudirira rave richiderera mumakumi emakore apfuura, asi misika yakabuda inoona kuwedzera kunoshamisa kwekusagadzikana. Aya maitiro akashandurwa kuwedzera kuwedzera kwekutsvaga kwemari yemari . Semuenzaniso, iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (NYSE: EEM) ine beta coefficient ya 1.26, kubva munaJune 2017, zvinoreva kuti nhamba yacho inenge inenge 26 muzana yakawanda kupfuura iyo US S & P 500 index.
Sezvo chero munhu akatenga US mashizha muna 2008 anoziva, izvi zvinokonzera mukana wevatengesi vemarudzi ose kutenga zviduku uye kutengesa zvakakwirira. Dambudziko iri kuziva nguva yekutenga kana kutengesa mazai emakambani anotengesa kubva kune imwe nyika iri mukati mebhizimisi.
Zvinhu zvitatu zvinotarisirwa kutarisa zvinosanganisira:
- Nhamba dzeAmerica dzeAmerica: Mazhinji emakambani ekubudirira ane dhora-denominated chikwereti chakakosha uye chikwereti chekambani, zvinoreva kuti "mari" yechikwereti inotarisana nehuwandu hwemadhora eAmerica maererano nemari yemunharaunda. Hunhu hwepamusoro hwekutora hunoshandura kune imwe simba ye dollar, iyo inokonzera chikwereti chemadhora-chinodhura zvakadhura, uye zvakasiyana.
- Zvematongerwe Enyika: Mabhizimisi emabhizimisi anosimudzira anoshandiswa zvikuru nehutongi hwematongerwe enyika, izvo zvinogona kukanganisa mitemo yemari, mitemo yezvemari, uye njodzi dzenyika . Somugumisiro, vatengesi vemarudzi ose vanofanira kubhadhara zvakanyanya kune zvematongerwo ezvematongerwo enyika uye izvo zvinogona kuita kuti vangave nazvo pane bhizinesi.
- Kunze Kwezvinhu: Kubuda kwebhizimisi rebhizimisi mabhizimisi zvinoshandiswawo nehuwandu hwekunze, kusanganisira kutengeswa kwekutengeswa uye geopolitical conflict. Vashandi vemunyika yose vanofanira kutora chimwe chezvikonzero izvi sezvo vanogona kunge vane simba guru mukukura kwezvemari.
Kune mienzaniso mizhinji yezviitiko izvi pakutamba:
- Argentina: Kusarudzwa kwaMauricio Macri muArgentina kwakaratidza kuchinja kukuru kwezvematongerwe enyika kwakabatsira zvikuru kuderedza mararamiro emari.
- Mexico: Kusarudzwa kwaDonald Trump muUnited States kwaiva chimwe chinhu chakakonzera marakiti ekutengesa kweMexico nekuda kwekufungidzira mitemo yekuchinja.
- Yakawanda Inotengeswa Masoko: Tarisiro yekuwedzera kwezvibereko zvemari - panguva iyoyo-yakatungamirirwa kushaya mari yakawanda yemashamba ekubudirira muna 2015.
The Bottom Line
Masoka anotengesa anomiririra mukana mukuru kune vashandi vemunyika dzakawanda kuti vaite pamusoro-kuenzana nehuwandu hwehuwandu hunoshandiswa hunodzorerwa. Izvi zvakanakisisa zvinobudirira nekuverenga kubuda kwemashamba emabhizimisi ekutengeserana nekutenga uye kutengesa panguva dzakakodzera. Izvi zvinotenderedzwa nekubatanidzwa kweUnited States mutengo, kuchinja kwezvematongerwe enyika, uye zvakasiyana-siyana zvekunze, izvo vashandi vemarudzi ose vanofanira kuchengeta maziso ekuona mikana yekuwana rubatsiro.