Municipal Bonds Total Returns, 1991-2013
| Gore | Municipal Bonds | Barclays Agg. |
| 1991 | 12.14% | 16.00% |
| 1992 | 8.82% | 7.40% |
| 1993 | 12.28% | 9.75% |
| 1994 | -5.17% | -2.92% |
| 1995 | 17.46% | 18.46% |
| 1996 | 4.43% | 3.64% |
| 1997 | 9.19% | 9.64% |
| 1998 | 6.48% | 8.70% |
| 1999 | -2.06% | -0.82% |
| 2000 | 11.69% | 11.63% |
| 2001 | 5.13% | 8.43% |
| 2002 | 9.60% | 10.26% |
| 2003 | 5.31% | 4.10% |
| 2004 | 4.48% | 4.34% |
| 2005 | 3.51% | 2.43% |
| 2006 | 4.84% | 4.33% |
| 2007 | 3.36% | 6.97% |
| 2008 | -2.48% | 5.24% |
| 2009 | 12.91% | 5.93% |
| 2010 | 2.38% | 6.54% |
| 2011 | 10.70% | 7.84% |
| 2012 | 6.78% | 4.22% |
| 2013 | -2.55% | -2.02% |
Iyi dheta dhesi inobatsira kuenzanisira kuti zvinhu zvipi zviviri- kufarira-kutengesa ngozi uye kukwereta kwekwereti -kunotora basa mumasvomisitiri zvisungo '. (Dzidza zvakawanda pamusoro pezvipingamupinyi zvezvisungo zvemasuo pano.)
Municipal Bond Kufarira-Dambudziko Risk
Nekuremekedza chikwata chekuda, zvinonzwisisika kuti maguta anowanzoona kushanda kwekambani yakawanda. Mumakore matatu emakarani ayo mairi aisimuka uye Bharclays Aggregate Index yakarasikirwa pasi (1994, 1999, uye 2013), maguta zvakare akapedzisa nekudzoka kusina kunaka.
Kune rumwe rutivi rwepeji, munis yakatora kudzoka kwakanaka mumakore 19 emakore makumi maviri ekuberekerwa kwebhizimisi kwegore mumunda wakanaka.
Municipal Bond Credit Risk
Chikwereti chinokonzerawo chikamu chinowanikwa mubatsiro remasungwa emunharaunda. Chikwereti chinokonzerwa nengozi yekuti hutano huchasara (husingakwanisi kuita chikwereti kana kuti chikwereti chikuru), uye unosanganisira zvinhu zvakakura zvinokonzera maonero ekutadza kuchinja.
Semuenzaniso, kuderera kwezvemari kunomutsa dambudziko rekukanganisa, kuenzanisa zvipfeko izvo kushanda kunosanganisira chimwe chechikwereti chekwereti. Sezvo makomisheni akasungirirwa anopiwa nemhando dzakasiyana-siyana dzevashandi - kubva kumatunhu uye maguta makuru kumaguta maduku uye masangano akasiyana-siyana (akadai sezvikwata zvemapurisa uye magwenga emigwagwa) - ngozi yekwereti inogonawo kukanganisa kushanda.
Izvi zvinowanikwa mumigumisiro yakatumirwa muna 2008, apo maitirwo akadonha uye mushamba wehutano wakawana kupfuura 5% asi masangano emasitrasi akarasikirwa pasi. Izvi zvinoratidza gore rinoratidzirwa kwete chete nekuderera kwematambudziko uye kukwidziridzwa kwehutengesi kwekutsvaga mari, asiwo kugadziriswa kwemusika kwemba. Nekudaro, izvi zvakakonzera kuderera kwakakosha mumitero yemitero yezvikwata zvemasimende, zvichiita kuti zvinetseke pamusoro pekuwedzera kuwedzerwa kwekutengesa kwenyika .
Saizvozvowo maguta anosimudzirwa mumakore anozivikanwa nehuwandu hwemusoro: 1994 (iyo Orange Country bankruptcy), 2010 (Meredith Whitney akafanotaura nezve "mhirizhonga") uye 2013 (Detroit's bankruptcy, zvinetso zvemari Puerto Rico). Izvo zviitiko zvezviitiko izvi zvinobatsirawo kusimbisa chokwadi chokuti kune zvakawanda kumasisita ehurumende 'kushanda kupfuura kungoita mutungamiri wekuda mari.
Nokuda kwenguva yakareba-kwenguva, zvisinei, kudzoka kwemasuo emasitrasi kwave kuri pedyo chaizvo neavo pamusika wekutsvaga mabhizimusi.
Kubva musi waDecember 31, 2013, mutengo wegore wemakore gumi wekudzoka kwegore rose weBarlaylay Municipal Bond Index yaiva 4.29%, pedyo ne 4.55% kudzoka kweBarlaylay Aggregate. Ramba uchiyeuka mupfungwa, zvisinei, izvi hazvirevi maapuro-to-apples kuenzanisa sezvo kufarira pamasisita ezvisungo hakuna mutero . Somugumisiro, mushure mekunge mutero wekudzoka kwemaMasisti uri kunyanya pedyo neyekutsvaga-mabhizinesi emabhangi pane zvaanowanikwa pakutanga.
A Final Thinking
Inowanzotaurwa kuti zvibatanidza zvinopa huwandu hwehuwandu hwehutano hwakakodzera hunofanirwa nevashambadzi vanochengetedza uye avo vari pedyo kana kuti vasati vasara. Asi tafura iri pamusoro, ine kusiyana kwayo kwema20 pakati pekudzoka kwegore rakanaka uye yakaipisisa, inoratidzawo kuti zvisungo hazvirevi kuti hazvina ngozi. Izvo zvisinganyanyi kuderera kupfuura mashizha (zvichida), asi zvinoramba zvichiratidzika.
Uye, sezvakaitwa nematokari, zvinonyanya kukoshesa paunotanga kutenga mari. Bond inodzoka mumavambo ekuma1980 yaive yakakwirira zvikuru uye nekuda kwekuti izvo zvakakonzera zvakapa mabhizimisi masimba mutungamiriri anotanga kuti vashandi vanoita mari vachizoita munguva pfupi vakanga vasingambofananidzi. Saizvozvowo, vashambadziri vezvisungo vakatanga kutora mari mumashure ekutsvaga kwemari-kwakanyangarika kwakatanga muna 2007 vakatambura kwemakore anenge gumi ekudzoka kwakanyanya. Kunyangwe kuguma kudzokera kumahombekombe ehombekombe yakawanda hazvikwanise kuita nekuda kwekutanga kwekuvhiringidza.