Academics Makatsvaga Kuzadzisa Maonero Akakosha Mazinga Kwemakore 50
Nenzira yekuti isu tose, vadzidzisi vakatarisa nyaya iyi yezvizvarwa uye vakazosvika pamatanda akawandisa ematokari ose anoda kubatwa muhomwe yezvekutsvaga mari kuti awedzere kubatsirwa kwekusiyana-siyana.
Ngatitangei kutarisa kumashure emakwikwi emakambani ekudyidzana kwekutengeserana kuburikidza nokutarisa pazvidzidzo zvina zvitsva iwe ungangosangana nazvo mumazuva ano emakorosi emakolishi.
Evans naArcher Vakayerwa 10 Matengesi Akange Akawanda Kudengenyeka Muna 1968
Sezvo umwe mudzidzi wezvemari zvichida anoziva (uye inenge imwe yega yebhuku rezvemari inoda kukuyeuchidza), nguva yokutanga chero basa rakakura rezvidzidzo munyika yanhasi rakaedza kupindura mubvunzo uyu, "Ndezvipi zvakasiyana-siyana zvakakwana?" yakasvika muna December 1968 apo John L. Evans naStephen H. Archer vakaparidza chidzidzo chinonzi Diversification uye kuderedza kupararira: An Empirical Analysis mu Journal of Finance , Volume 23, Issue 5, mapeji 761-767.
Kubva mubasa ravo, Evans naArcher vakawana kuti chikwereti chakakwana-chabhadhara, chikwereti-pasina chikwereti (kuverenga: hapana maranho akweretwa ) pamwe nemashoma kana gumi mashomanana akasarudzwa akashambadza kubva pakurongwa rwema 470 makambani aiva nemari yakakwana yemari yakawanikwa kwemazana gumi apfuura (1958-1967) aikwanisa kuchengetedza imwe chete nzira yakatsauka, ichiita kuti iite zvakafanana nemusika wekutengeswa seyakazara.
Iyi nzira yekusarudza makambani asina kukanganisa asina kunyanya kufunga nezvekuchengetedza kwekuchengetedza kwekuchengetedza, kusanganisira mutemo wemari uye yekudzidza mabhizimisi , inozivikanwa se "naive diversification" mumabhuku ezvidzidzo. Mumwe mutengesi anoshanda mairi anoshandisa zero kutonga kwevanhu uye haasi musiyano pakati pebhizimisi-yebhizimisi uye yakasimba ine kukosha kwekubhadhara mari . Hazvisi mutsauko pakati pemakambani anonaya mune chikwereti nevaya vasina chikwereti chero ani zvake ane penny uye ane matani emari akagara akatenderedza nekuchengeteka kwakanyanya, zvichiita kuti zvikwanisike kutonhora kunyange Kukuru Kwekupera.
Nheyo yezvavakawana: Sezvo kusiyana kwekuwedzera kuchiwedzera kuburikidza kuwedzerwa mamwe maitiro kune imwe nzvimbo yechipatimendi, kusagadzikana (izvo zvavanotsanangura sehuwandu) kunoderera. Zvisinei, pane chikonzero apo kuwedzerwa zita rinowedzera kune raiti yekutsvaga rinopa zvishoma zvishoma asi rinowedzera mari, kuderedza kudzoka. Chinangwa chaiva chekuwana izvi zvakanaka.
Meir Statman Akatenda Evans uye Archer Vakange Vasina Kurwisana, Vakakavadzana muna 1987 Zvakatora 30-40 Zvitoro Kuti Zvigone Kuwedzerwa
Inenge makore makumi maviri gare gare, Meir Statman yakabudiswa Iko Mabhuku Akawanda Anogadzira Diversified Portfolio? mu Journal of Financial uye Quantitative Analysis, Bhuku 22, Nha. 3, September 1987 , uye akasimbisa kuti Evans naArcher vakanga vasina kururama.
Akatenda kune mutengesi asina chikwereti, nhamba shoma yezvigaro zvezvikwata zvekutarisira kuti zvakakwana zvakasiyana-siyana zvaive makumi matatu. Kune avo vakashandisa mari yakabhadhara, makumi mana yakakwana.
Campbell, Lettau, Malkiel, uye Xu Rakabudisa Pepa muna 2001 Kusimbisa Kuwedzera Kwekutsvaga Kwekutsvaga Kudiwa Kwakadiwa Evan naArcher Vanotsvaga Nemhaka yokuti 50 Matengesi Akave Iye Zvino Anodiwa
Muchiitiko chezvino chiri chidzidzo chakazivikanwa zvikuru kubva mumagazini yaFebruary 2001 ye Journal of Finance , Volume LVI, Nha. 1, John Y. Campbell, Martin Lettau, Burton G. Malkiel, uye Yexia Xu, vakabudisa chidzidzo chinonzi Iva Munhu Mumwechete Nhandare Inowedzera Kuwedzera Here? Kuongorora kweEpirical Kuongorora kweIdiosyncratic Risk . Yakatarisa kuEvans yekutanga uye kuArcher diversification yekudzidza uye yakaedza kudzorera zvakare migumisiro mumatengesi emari. Izvozvo zvakagumisa kuti kusava nehanya kwakange kwakakwana zvakakwana kuti kuwana imwechete yerudzi rwemari yakasiyana-siyana inoda chikwereti cheashoma kusvika makumi mashanu ematokisi .
Domian, Louton, uye Racine Vakashandura Tsanangudzo yeHodzi kuti Ive Nayo Iri nani-World Metric uye Yakagumisa, munaEpril 2006, Izvo Kunyange 100 Mabhizimisi Haana Kukwana
Pakupedzisira yakabudiswa munaNovember 2007 pamapeji 557-570 eChepfenyuro Ongororo pashure pekupera gore rakapfuura, chidzidzo chakanyatsotariswa chinonzi Diversification muPortfolios yeBhuku rimwe nerimwe rekutengesa: 100 Bhizi Hazvikwanisi , dzakashandura tsanangudzo yengozi kune imwe yakawanda akachenjera, chaiye-nyika yeruzhinji. Panzvimbo yekufunga kuti mari yakawanda yakapihwa yakashandurwa -kufamba kwandinorumbidza sezvo ndakanyatsojekesa maonero ehutano hwakasimba ekuti beta seyero yehuwandu inenge yakazara nenzombe kunze kwezvishoma-mamiriro ezvinhu - yakatsvaga kuziva kuti yakawanda sei mashizha zvaive zvakakosha vaiva imwe yekushandisa nzira dzakasiyana-siyana dzekuita hupfumi hwekuvaka purofigoreti iyo isingakwanisi kupera panjodzi isina mari yehupfumi pamakore makumi maviri; munyaya iyi, 1985-2004. Chidzidzo chacho chakavaka mapurisa ezvimwe mazana emakambani makuru, anotengeserana nevanhu vari muUnited States.
The conclusion? Kuti uderedze mikana yako yekukundikana ne 99%, ichiratidza dambudziko 1-mu-100 rekukundikana, puroforeti yakaunganidzirwa zvakashata yaifanira kusanganisira fumi 164.
Kana iwe wakaenda ne-10-stock portfolio, waive ne 60% mukana wekubudirira, zvichireva mukana we 40% wekukundikana.
Kana iwe wakaenda ne-20-stock portfolio, wakanga uine 71% mukana wekubudirira, zvinoreva kuti 29% mukana wekukundikana.
Kana iwe wakaenda ne-30-stock portfolio, waive ne 78% mukana wekubudirira, zvinoreva 22% yekana yekukundikana.
Kana iwe wakaenda ne 50-stock portfolio, waive ne 87% mukana wekubudirira, zvinoreva 13% mukana wekukundikana.
Kana iwe wakaenda ne-100-stock portfolio inotaurwa mubhuku rekudzidza, waive ne 96% mukana wokubudirira, zvichireva mukana wechina wekukundikana. Izvozvo zvingasaita sezvakawanda, asi kana uchitaura nezvehutano hwako hwehupenyu, hunofananidzwa ne-1-in-25 matanho ekurarama pa Ramen. Icho hachisi, chaizvoizvo, kuti unoda sei kupedza makore ako endarama, kunyanya kana iwe wakaronga pakurega kupfuma .
Mitsoropodzi yeDissification Studies Yakarurama, Kunyange Izvo Zvichiri Zvidzidzo Zvimwe Zvisingakwanisi Mamiriro Ezvinhu
Chimwe chekutsoropodza kwakanyanya kwandinayo nekudzidza kwakabudiswa muna 2007 ndechekuti yakabvisa kubva kune imwe nzvimbo yakawanda yekutengesa mari kune yaArcher naEvans 1968 yekudzidza. Yeuka kuti Archer naVevans vainyanya kusarudza pakuongorora kwekutanga. Vakaramba vaine mabhizimusi makuru (mabhizimusi makuru, nekutsigira, vanokundikana kazhinji, vane ruzivo rwakanyanya rwemisika huru, vanowanzokwanisa kukweta tarenda zvakakosha kuchengetedza ivo uye kubudirira, uye vane vamwe vanofarira vanofarira vanogona kupinda uye ona ngarava yakakodzera kana zvinhu zvikaenda zvakashata, zvichiita kuti zvishoma zvishoma zvinoparadza zvikwereti kupfuura zvikwata zviduku zvishoma zvemari ). Vakabva vakurira kunze chero chipi zvacho chakanga chisingazivikanwi chemaitiro gumi-refu kuti chidzivirire rusvingo rweWall Street ruchivavimbisa mabhizimisi matsva asingakwanise kutumira.
Izvo zvinhu zviviri izvi zvinoreva kuti dziva iro Archer naEvans vakanga vachivaka matanho avo ekusiyana-siyana maitiro aive akakwirira zvikuru kune akashandiswa mukudzidza kwakapfuura. Inofanira kushamisika hapana munhu akaita zvakanaka mumatunhu ekusekondari masvomhu kuti zvimwe zvakasiyana-siyana zvaidiwa sezvo hutano hwevangasarudzwa muhova racho hwakaramba hwakanyanyisa. Rinofanira kunge rakagara rakagadziriswa kune ani nani ane ruzivo rwepasi rose. Izvo zvingaita zviduku, zvishoma-kuzivikanwa kwekugadzira chikepe zvinokanganisa zvinonyanya kukwirira kudarika simba rakadai saExx Mobil kana Johnson & Johnson vachifamba vachigadzira. Nhamba idzi dzakajeka.
Kunyange zvazvo kudzidza kwakasiyana-siyana kwakadaro kungave kwakakosha kune makambani akadai saCharles Schwab ari kutamira kune magetsi akaungana (Verenga: Hapana kutonga kwevanhu) mahofisi ezvitoro, zvose hazvina maturo kune munhu ane njere, anopa mari.
Kunetseka icho? Funga zvinoreva kana zviwanikwa zvaiva zvakarurama. Funga kuti semanheru ano, mashizha makumi maviri nemashanu anomiririra mutsara unotevera mune zvikwereti zvinotevera zvemakisi:
- Dow Jones Industrial Average = 93.89% yezvinhu
- Iyo NASDAQ Yakaenzaniswa = 46.66% yezvinhu
- S & P 500 = 30.32% yezvinhu
Saka, ibasa revadzidzi vane tarenda rakafanana naDkt Jeremy J. Siegel paWharton rinogona kuitika kana rinoratidzira pamusoro pemakore gumi nemanomwe, zvikwereti zvakarova kudzoka kwezvakagadziriswa kwezvakagadziriswa? Zvinyoronyoro: Zvikwangwani zvakakura zvinenge zvakafanana nehuwandu hwekugadziriswa hwakabikwa muitiro yavo. Vanhuwo zvavo havatore dart uye vanokanda dart muzita rezita, kuvaka chikwata cheiyo mafaira. (Kana vakadaro, zvaizoderedza zvachose p / e ratios kubva pachokwadi sezvo mari yakave yakabviswa zvachose kune mabhizimusi ane mauto mashoma ekugovera float. Ita zvakawanda zviri nyore, kana vashandi vose vakaisa 1 / 500th yenhumbi dzavo muApple ne $ 700 + bhiriyoni misika yemakethe uye 1 / 500th yenhumbi dzavo kuUnited Steel Corp., ine $ 3.6 mabhiriyoni emari yemari yemakethe, iyo yekupedzisira yakanga isingagoni kutora mabhuku ekutenga uye zvikamu zvingatumirwa mumutsetse wekutengesa ne zero kururamisa. kutengeserana pakurambidzwa kwakanyanya kusvika pakukosha kwayo. )
The DJIA, iyo yakarova S & P 500 pamusoro pehupenyu hwangu nemakore asiri-mashoma kubva 50 kusvika ku100 nheyo dzegore pagore (iyo inowedzera kumari chaiyo paunenge uchitaura pamusoro pemakumi emakumi emakore) isarudzo-yakasarudzwa nevanyori veThe Wall Street Journal . Ndiyo chete makambani makuru, mazhinji, anoyamura, makumiririri munyika munoita kuti iite kune urongwa. Icho chipupuru chebhuruu chikwata chekurumbira.
Iyo NASDAQ uye S & P 500 inotengeswa mumakemikari inorema nhamba, inoreva kuti yakakura (uye inogara iripo inobatsira zvikuru, kunze kwekuti isu tiri mumusika wekutengesa mabhizimusi), makambani anotengeswa kusvika kumusoro ndokuita zvikamu zvisingaverengeki zvezvivigiro zvevana .
Izvo hazvisi zvose. Basa raSiegel, kunyanya, rinoratidza kuti zvakaenzana zvakaenzana, kune-board-portfolio yepakutanga S & P 500 muna 1957 yakachengetwa pasina kuchinja kunotevera kupfura S & P 500 chaiyo nokuda kwezvikonzero zvakasiyana-siyana zvaakaisa mubasa rake rakawanda, zvichiratidza ikozvino vakaratidza kunyatsochengeteka kwenyika kwekambani dzakakura maererano neshamwari dzavo duku.
MuKugumo, Kana Iwe Unoda Kuziva Kuwanda kweDissification Kwakakwana, Tarisa kuna Benjamin Graham
Izvozvo zvinotisiya kupi? Kufanana nedzimwe nzvimbo dzakawanda dzemari, zvinogona kupfupiswa se: Benjamin Graham akanga akarurama. Graham, uyo aida kuti vatengesi vave nezvikwata zvema15 kusvika ku30, vakasimudzira maitiro manomwe ekudzivirira . Tora nguva yekumhanya masvomhu uye iwe unowana kuti nzira yake yakabudirira, uye isingadhuri, yakagadzira zvimwechetezvo majeko makuru emakero emakwenzi anofara, zvichiita kuti zviwande zvakaderera mitengo yekukundikana neanenge yakaenzana nemitengo yekusungirirwa.
Ndezvipi zviratidzo zvinomwe izvi? Akawedzera pamusoro pavo asi chidimbu chechikamu ndechekuti:
- Kukura kwakakwana kwebhizimisi
- Yakagadzikana zvakasimba mamiriro ezvinhu emari
- Zvikwereti zvakagadzikana
- Yakagadziridzwa chikamu chekugoverana
- Yakagadzirirwa mibairo kukura
- Mutevedzeri wekutengo-kusvika-kuwanikwa kwehuwandu
- Muenzaniso wekuenzanisa wekutengo-kune-zvinhu
Graham akanga asiri mutendi mukusiyana kwemarudzi. Aida kusimbiswa, mazano emagetsi. Tora, somuenzaniso, kushanda kwezvikwata zvemitima yepamusoro nepamusoro pevatengi zvigadzirwa zvishoma pamusoro pehafu yezana remakore. Mikana yekuzivisa kubhadhara muboka rekare pamusoro pemakore makumi mashanu emakore, zvichienderana nekugadzirisa mari uye kushandiswa kwemari yakasiyana-siyana nehuwandu husina simba hwehutengo hwemari, hwakanyanya kwazvo. Kusiyana neizvi, vatengi vezvokudya vanofarira zvinhu zvakasiyana-siyana zvinodhura, mashomanana ekudzoka kune guru, uye simba rechokwadi rekutengesa. Kana vaviri vari kutengeserana pamadhora makumi mapfumbamwe nemashanu, Graham angangokurudzira nechisimba iwe wakanga usina kukanganisa kuti uzvione ivo vakagadzirira vakasiyana-siyana vekutsvaga. Bvisa ndege dziri kubva ku-equation uye, kunyange iwe uchanakidzwa negore rinonakidza gore rakafanana negore ra 2015 apo matengo emagetsi akaramba achikonzera matengo emadhora kusvika kaviri, ndicho chinhu chiduku pane chivimbo chemasvomhu chauchazopinda munyika yezvemari kuti makore 25-50 ekudzoka kwemakore ako kuwedzera.
Vakawanda vezvikwereti vezvikoro vanoziva izvi. Zvinosuruvarisa, maoko avo akasungwa nokuti vari kutongwa nevashambadzi venguva pfupi vanofungidzirwa negore negore, kana kunyange mwedzi-nemwedzi zvikwereti. Kana vaifanira kuedza kuzvibata nenzira yakanakisisa, vaizobviswa. Vashomanana vangaramba varipo navo.
Zviri pachena kuti iwe unogona kugara uine zana zana kana uchida. Zviri nyore nyore munyika yebhadhari dzemari. Vanhu vanozviita nguva dzose. Mumwe mutariri weVermont akazofa gore rapera ndokusiya $ 8 Mamiriyoni ehupfumi akapararira mumakambani anenge makumi mapfumbamwe nemaviri. Zvimwewo, iwe unogona kukanganwa zvose izvi uye kutenga chikamu chemari sezvo kune zvikonzero zvishanu zvingave zvichida iwe sarudzo yako yakanakisisa pasinei nemararamiro anochinja mumakumi mashoma mashoma apfuura ayo anonyanya kuchinja mararamiro ezvigadzirwa.