Ongorora Zvaunenge Waita Pakubhadharwa Kwekutsvaga Nokuverenga Kuda Kwekudzoka neCAGR
Kutanga kuChiratidzo cheKudzoka Kwekudzoka
Kudzoka kwakakwana pakuiswa kwekutsvaga kwakananga uye kuri nyore. Chaizvoizvo, inoudza mubhadhari kuti muzana wekuwana kana kurasikirwa pane imwe yenheyo inobva pamutengo wekutenga. Kuti uverenge kudzoka kwakazara, aparadzanise kukosha kwekutengesa kwechigaro pamwe chero zvikwereti zvakagamuchirwa nemari yaro yose. Muchidimbu, izvi zvinoshanda kune huwandu hwekuwana mari pamwe nezvikamu sepamuviri yemari yawakagadzirirwa kutenga iyo yekutsvaga.
Nzira yekuverenga sei Total Return
Mumwe mutengesi aiva nemari yakabhadhara ye $ 15,100 muPepsiCo stock (akatenga $ 15,000 yePepsico stock uye akabhadhara $ 100 mishonga pamutengo uye kutengesa mirairo). Akagamuchira madhora mazana matatu emari panguva yaakabata sengo. Gare gare, akatengesa nzvimbo yacho ye $ 35,000. Chii chakanga chiri kudzoka kwake kwose?
Tinogona kuvhara zvigadziriswa mumutengo wekudzorera wega wega kuti tiwane mhinduro yedu. Kutanga, tinotora madhora makumi matatu nemazana matatu nemakumi maviri nemakumi mashanu emadhora akawanikwa pakutengeswa kwematengo uye kuwedzera $ 300 mari yemari yakagamuchirwa kuwana $ 35,300.
Zvadaro, tinoparadzanisa izvi nezvikwereti zve $ 15,100. Chigumisiro chacho chikamu 2.3377% kana 133.77% kudzoka kwenyika pazvikwereti mukuru (yeuka kuti 1.0 yekudzoka kwese ndiye mukuru wekuti tinofanira kuibvisa kunze kana tichida kuratidza kuwana kana kurasikirwa se peresenti; 2.3377 - 1.0 = 1.3377, kana 133.77% yakaratidzwa se peresenti.
Dai chigumisiro chacho chaive 1.5, kudzoka kwakakwana kunoratidzirwa sepakati kwaive kuri 50% (1.5 - 1.0 = .5, kana 50%)).
Icho ichi chaiva chiyero chakanaka chekudzoka kune wekutsvaga ? Zvose kudzokera hazvikwanisi kupindura mubvunzo iwoyo nokuti hazvifungi kuti nguva yakareba sei kuiswa kwekutsvaga. Kana muzvikwereti akawana 133.77% mumakore mashanu, ndizvo zvinokonzera kupemberera. Zvisinei, zvakamutora makore makumi maviri kuti abudise kudzoka kwakadai, izvi zvaizove zvirikutyisa mari.
Kutanga kuChechi yeCompound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
Needing kuverenga nguva yakareba yakatora kuti ibudise zvakakwana kudzoka, mutyairi anoshaya mamiriyoni anokwanisa kuenzanisa kudzoka kwakakonzerwa nemariko yakasiyana panguva dzakasiyana-siyana. Apa ndipo apo CAGR inosunungura. CAGR hairevi chokwadi chezvemari mune imwe pfungwa asi, iyo inokosha inyanzvi yekudzidza. Nzvimbo yepamusoro inogona kunge iine 40% gore rimwe chete uye pasi 5% inotevera. CAGR inopa kudzoka kwegore negore kwekutsvaga kwakadaro sekunge kwave kukura pane zvakasimba, kunyange kufamba. Mune mamwe mazwi, inokuudza kuti iwe waizofanira kuwana mari yakawanda gore rega rega, yakanyanyiswa pane yako huru, kuti uuye pakushambadzira kwekupedzisira. Rwendo rwechokwadi-nyika runogona kuva (uye kazhinji runo) rwakanyanya kuderera.
Zvinenge zvikamu zvose zvezvikwata zvakanakisisa zvekutsvaga mumatambudziko zvakasuruvara zve 50% kana kupfuura, chikwata-kusvika-mugwagwa, nguva dzose vachiita kuti varidzi vavo vagone kupfuma.
"Haungagoni here kutora kudzoka kuri nyore uye kugovana nayo nenhamba yemakore iyo inotengeswa yakaitwa?" iwe unogona kubvunza. Zvinosuruvarisa, kwete. Kuti tinzwisise chikonzero, dzokera kumuenzaniso wedu wePepsiCo uye tifunge kuti mubhadhati akanga atora nzvimbo yake kwemakore gumi. Munhu asinganzwisisi masvomhu anogona kuparadzanisa kudzoka kwakakwana kwe 133.77% nemakore gumi uye kuverenga kuti kudzoka kwake gore negore kwaive 13.38%. Edza kutarisa mathemoni uchishandisa kukosha kwemazuva emangwanani. Kana iwe ukadaro, uchaona kuti yakanga iine mari ye $ 15,000 yakasimwa ne 13.38% gore negore, ingadai yakakodzera kukosha kwekupedzisira kwe $ 52,657; iri kure kure nemadhora makumi matatu nemazana matatu (35 000) ayo maitengesi aya akatengeswa.
Chikonzero chekuparadzana ndechokuti nzira iyi isina kukwana haina kutora kuwirirana. Chigumisiro chacho ndechekunyanyisa kwakajeka kwechokwadi chaiyo kudzorera mubhadhari anofarira gore negore.
Nzira Yokuverenga Nhimbwa yeCompound Annual Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
Kuti uverenge CAGR, unofanira kutanga nehuwandu hwekudzoka. Mumuenzaniso wedu wepamusoro, kudzoka kwakakwana kwaive 2.3377 (133.77%). Isu tinozivawo kuti kubhadhara kwakabatwa kwemakore gumi.
Wedzera kubhadhara zvachose (2.3377) neC X midzi (X kuva nhamba yemakore kushandiswa kwaiitwa). Izvi zvinogona kushandiswa nekutora zvakasiyana-siyana mumudziro nekuushandisa semuenzaniso. Mumuenzaniso wedu, 1/10, kana .10 (waiva nenhamba yemakore ave 2, ungadai wakatora 1/2 kana .5 semuenzaniso, makore matatu angave ari matatu kana .33 semakore ekupedzisira, makore mana ingadai iri 1/4, kana .25, nezvimwe zvakadaro nezvimwewo.)
Mumuenzaniso wedu wepamusoro, CAGR yaizoverengwa sezvinotevera:
2.377 (.10) = 1.09, kana 9% muzana wekuwedzera kwegore (zvakare, yeuka 1.0 inomirira kukosha kunokosha inofanira kubviswa; ergo, 1.09 - 1.0 = .09, kana 9% CAGR inoratidzirwa seperesenti).
Mune mamwe mazwi, kana kuwanikwa kwekutsvaga kwePepsiCo kwakagadziriswa, hupfumi huri kukura pa9% hwakanyanyiswa gore negore. Kuti uone mugumisiro, shandisa kukosha kwemazuva anotevera. Muchidimbu, izvi zvinoreva kuti kana mutengesi wacho atora mari inosvika madhora 15 000 kubhangi kwemakore gumi uye akawana 9% pamari yake, angadai akazosvika mari imwe chete ye $ 35,300 pakupera kwenguva.
Mienzaniso Yakawanda Inokuratidza Iwe Maitiro Okutora Mushonga Wegore Wekuwedzera Kukura (CAGR)
Makore makumi matatu akapfuura, Michael Adams akatenga madhora 5 000 eWing Wang Industries Inc. Akangobva kutengesa mari ye $ 105,000. Panguva yekubata kwake nguva, akagamuchira mari inosvika $ 16 500 mumari yemari. Zvose zvaakatenga uye zvekutengesa zvaiva $ 50 mumwe nomumwe. Verengai mutengo wose uye CAGR yekutsvaga kwake nzvimbo.
Nhanho 1: Berengai Total Return
$ 105,000 yakawanikwa pakutengeswa + $ 16,500 cash dividend received = $ 117,000
---------------------- (akaparadzaniswa) ----------------------
$ 5,000 utsvaga + $ 100 mamiriyoni emitengo = $ 5100 mari inoenderana
= 22,94 kudzoka kwese (rangarirai, dai waida kuratidza kudzoka kwakazara sezana, iwe unofanirwa kubvisa 1 (semuenzaniso, 22.94 - 1), kuwana 21,94, kana 2194%.)
Danho 2: Verengai CAGR
Tsvaga muchero we X mizu (1/30 makore = 0.33)
22.94 (.033) = 1.1098, kana kuti 10.98% CAGR
(Zvakare, yeuka kuti kuitira kuti utaure semuzana, iwe unofanira kubvisa chigumisiro cha 1 (semuenzaniso, 1.1098 - 1 = .1098, kana 10,98% CAGR.)
Zvose mune zvose, uku ndiko kudzoka kwakanaka kwenguva.
Kusvika pakuedza imwe? Kugona. Handeyi.
Jasmine Washington akatenga $ 12 500 yakawanda muMidwest Bank Inc. Akangotengesa kubhadhara kwe $ 15,000 uye akawana mari yezvikamu zve $ 2 500 panguva yekubata kwake kwemakore mana. Akabhadhara mari inosvika $ 250 mumakomisheni. Chii chake CAGR?
Nhanho 1: Berengai Total Return
$ 15,000 yakagamuchira pakutengeswa + $ 2,500 mari inowanikwa mari = $ 17,500
---------------------- (akaparadzaniswa) ----------------------
$ 12 500 kutengesa + $ 250 mamiriyoni = $ 12,750 mari yepamusoro
= 1.37 kudzoka kwese
Danho 2: Verengai CAGR
1.37 (.25) = 1.08, kana 8% CAGR
Mamwe Mafungiro Okupedzisira Pamusoro Pose Kudzoka uye CAGR
Ndakataura zvakanyanya munguva yakapfuura nezvekuti vatengesi vanonyengerwa sei kuregererwa kudzoka kwekudzoka, iyo ndiyo yekupedzisira chinhu chimwe chete chinokosha kana iwe wakagadzirisa pangozi nekufungisisa tsika. Imwe mufananidzo ndiyo nzira yakawanda yematepa mapepa akavakwa. Izvi zvakakosha migumisiro yechokwadi-yenyika nokuti iwe unogona kugadzirisa zvinhu zvako kunzwisisa kwekuita kwako kushandiswa kwekuita, nekuita zvisarudzo zvakanyatsojeka semugumisiro, nekuisa pfungwa pakudzoka kwese.
Chimbofunga imwe yekare yebhuruti chip stock , ikozvino-yakavharwa Eastman Kodak. Nezvikamu zvaunopedza kubviswa, iwe unofunga kuti mutengi wekugara kwenguva yakareba akaita zvisina kunaka, handizvo here? Kuti iye angadai akarasikirwa nemari yose yakaiswa pangozi? Kwete nepfuti refu. Kunyange zvazvo zvingave zviri nani zviri nani, zviri pachena, muridzi weEastman Kodak kwemakore makumi maviri nemashanu asati apera kuputika kwayo kwaizove nemadhora anodarika makumi mana emari yake zvichienderana nekudzoka kwezvinhu zvizere zvinotungamirirwa nezvikamu uye musero usingabhadharwi nemitero- kure . Mukuwedzera, paiva nemitero inobhadharwa kusvika pakupedzisira kubhadhara iyo, kune vashandi vazhinji, vanogona kudzivirira pfuma yekutsvaga mune ramangwana, nekuwedzera kugadzirisa kuputika. Yakabatana nechishamiso chandinoti, " mathemikisi ekusiyana-siyana ".
Pamusoro wehurukuro yemakondomu yekuwedzera kwegore negore, chinhu chinokosha ndechokuisa mukati mekuita simba rinoshamisa zvingave kwenguva refu. Chimwe chikamu chepakati peji kana maviri pane makumi maviri nemashanu kana makumi mashanu emakore, ayo vazhinji vashandi vachave neropafadzo yakakwana kuti vafare kana vatanga kushandiswa kwekutsvaga mari kare, zvinogona kureva musiyano pakati pekusarura kwenguva refu uye kunopera pamusoro pehuwandu hunobatsira. Nguva ipi neipi nhau izere nezvimwewo zvishoma-mubhadhari wekuwana mari uye achisiyira chakavanzika mamiriyoni emadhora emadhora, imwe yemitambo inowanikwa ndeyekuti munhu akavaka umambo hwega wega akaisa CAGR yakanaka pamusoro pezhinji, mazhinji, makumi emakore. Ichi ndicho chimwe chezvikonzero zvakakosha kudzivisa zvinhu zvakadai sekupfupika , kutengeserana pamuganhu , nekuzviisa pachena kune ngozi.