Ndezvipi Zvitsva Zvoupfumi Zviratidzo Zvinokuudza

3 Kurinda Parizvino

Tsanangudzo : Zviratidzo zvinoputika ndezviverengero zvinotevera chiitiko chemari. Iwe unoshandisa iwo kusimbisa izvo zvichangobva kuitika muhupfumi uye kusimbisa chiitiko. Izvo zvinoita kuti zvive zvakakosha pakuziva kuchinja pfungwa mubhizimisi .

Nzira yakanakisisa yokushandisa zviratidzo zvekucheka iri pamwe chete nemamwe mavara maviri. Yokutanga iri kutungamirira zviratidzo . Izvi zvinosanganisira mitengo yezvikwata , mirairo yevakiki yezvinhu zvakagadzikana uye mari yezvibereko.

Vanofanotaura zvikamu zvitsva mubhizinesi. Nokuda kwezvimwe, ona Zvikonzero zveBusiness Cycle .

Iwe unofanirwawo kutarisa zviratidzo zvakasiyana-siyana, zvakadai semuviri wakawanda wezvokudya uye basa . Ivo vanokuudza zviri kuitika iye zvino.

Vanhu vazhinji havavhiringidzi kutarisa zviratidzo zvinorema. Iko kukanganisa. Vanokubatsira kuti uve nechokwadi chokuti uri kuverenga mamiriro acho akanaka. Nenzira iyo iwe uchaziva kuti hupfumi hunoenda mukuderera uye kana wapfuura.

Top Top Three Lagging Indicators to Watch

Dow Jones Kutakura Avhareji chiratidzo chinonyatsoshanda chekudzivirira. Izvozvo ndezvekuti inotevedzera kushanda kwemakambani anotumira zvinhu zvenyika yedu. Kana kamwe vatengesi vachizadza zvinhu zvakachengetedza zvigadzirwa, vanofanira kuzvitumira kune vatengi. Pane chegi pakati pekuraira uye kutengeswa. Kana iyo Transportation Index inokwira, zvinoreva kuti vatengi havana kubvisa mitemo yavo. Icho chinosimbisa kushamiswa kweMurayiro Wenguva Dzakanaka Dare , Chiratidzo chinotungamirira zvezvemari.

Kushaya basa chiratidzo chekudzivirira. Kana vanhu vatanga kurasikirwa nemabasa avo, hupfumi hwakatotanga kuderera. Ndizvo nokuti chinhu chekupedzisira vashandi vanoda kuitei ndorega vanhu vaende. Ushayi hucharamba huchikwira kunyange mushure mekunge hupfumi hwakatanga kuvandudza. Ndiyokuti makambani akamirira kusvikira vatenda kuti hupfumi hwakadzoka vasati vatanga kuhaya zvakare.

Chimwe chiratidzo chinoputika ndiyo Indaneti Inotendesa Indaneti . Ndiko nokuti vanhu vazhinji havafungi kuti hupfumi hwakashanduka kusvikira huripo. Vanhu vanosimbisa manzwiro avo pamusoro pehupfumi kuti zviri nyore sei kuwana mabasa. Kazhinji, hazvive zvakaoma kuwana basa kusvikira mushure mokunge hupfumi husati hwachinja.

Index

Iyo US Conference Board yakagadzira Index yeLagging Indicators yehurumende yehurumende. Iyi isangano risina purogiramu rinodhinda Indaneti mwedzi wose. Inoshambadza zviratidzo zvinomwe zvinoshandiswa pakugadzira index. Bhodi rakashandisa zviratidzo zvakasimbiswa neThe National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Kutsvakurudza kwaro kwakaratidza kuti ivo ndivo vakanyatsosimbisa mabhizimisi ekufamba.

Rondedzera

Heino mutsara weZvibato zveBato reBhodi. Ndiyo yakanyatsorongodza runyorwa rwezviratidzo zvinobatsira izvo vezvehupfumi vanotevera. Nhfupiso inokurudzira inotsanangura kuti nei mumwe nomumwe achibatsira, uye kukosha kwayo muIndaneti.

1. Avhareji yenguva yekushaiwa basa. Nhamba yemavhiki avo avo vanoverengwa sevasina basa neBhood of Labor Statistics vave vachitsvaka basa. Munguva yekuderera, nhamba yevasingashandi kwenguva refu ichawedzera. Kurema = 0.0361
2. Inventories ku Sales Ratio. The Bureau of Economic Analysis inoratidzira izvi pakugadzira , mabhizimisi, uye mabhizimisi . Munguva yekuderera, zvinyorwa zvinomuka sekutengesa kwekutengesa. Kurema = 0.1211

1. Shanduko muBashandi Mariki yega yeChikwata Chekugadzira . Iyi nhamba inowedzera apo mafekitari anobereka zvishoma kudarika kune umwe neumwe mushandi, nekuda kwekuraira zvinyorwa. Nzira chete yekuderedza nhamba iyi ndeyekurasa vashandi kana kubereka zvakawanda. Kurema = 0.0587
2. Average Prime Rate . Apo nguva dzinenge dzakanaka, mabhangi anoramba kuderedza mitengo (uye pfuma yavo) kunyange kana bhizinesi ratanga kuterera. Apo nguva dzinenge dzakashata, dzinoramba kudzira matanho kusvikira vanyatsoziva kuti chidimbu chinotsigira icho. Kurema = 0.2815.
3. Zvemabhizimisi neZvesheni Zvikwereti. iyo ndiyo chiratidzo chekudzivirira nokuti mabhangi achiri nezvikwereti zvakawanda muhuipi kunyange mushure mokunge mutengesi uchitanga. Saizvozvowo, mabhizimisi ari kurasikirwa mari mukutanga kwekutanga kwekuderera kwemari achatora zvikwereti kuvhara mari. Kana imwe nguva hupfumi hutanga kuvandudza, zvinotora nguva nguva mabhanki asati ane mvura yakakwana yekutanga kukweretesa zvakare. Kurema = 0.0970.

1. Chikwereti chevatengi kuRatio Ratio. Vatengi vemakwereti ematokari vanobatanidzwa neFederal Reserve. Mari yega yega inoshushwa neBusiness of Economic Analysis. Mushure mokutengesa, vatengi vakangwarira kubvisa chikwereti kunyange zvazvo mari yavo inotanga kuwedzera. Asiwo, vachakwereta zvakawanda panguva yekuderera kwemari kubhadhara zvikwereti pavanenge vadziviswa. Kurema = 0.2101.
2. Mutengo Wemari yeVashandi. Ichi chikamu cheNhamba yeVakatengi . Vatapi vebasa vanogona kukwidza mitengo pamutambo wekudarika kwemari kuti varambe vachiwana purogiramu yemari sezvinoda kudiwa. Kana imwe nyika ikakunda, inomanikidzwa kuderedza mari uye zviduku. Vanogona kuramba vachicheka matengo, kunyange kamwe chete apo kutora kwakatanga. Izvo zvakasara mushure mekudarika kwematambudziko zvingangodaro dzichiramba dzichideredza mitengo. Vanoramba vachiedza kuwana bhizinesi rakawanda nokuti rakashanda. Havana kuziva kana kudarika kwapera. Kurema = 0.1955. (Inobva: "Index yeLagging Indicators," Conference Board.)