Zvitengesheni Futures: Maitiro Avanoita Nezvienzaniso

Sei Maitirwo Ezvinhu Zvaunoda Iko Kuchinja Kwazvo Zuva Rimwe?

Tsanangudzo: Ramangwana rezvemigodhi zvibvumirano zvekutenga kana kutengesa zvinhu zvakasvibiswa pane rimwe zuva mune ramangwana pane imwe mutengo. Chibvumirano ndechegwaro rakatemwa. Nzvimbo nhatu huru dzezvinhu zviri zvokudya, simba uye zvigadzirwa. Mazuva ekupedzisira ezvokudya ndeyekudya, gorosi uye shuga. Simba guru rine ramangwana riine mafuta uye petroli. Metare anoshandisa nguva yemberi inosanganisira ndarama , sirivha nemhangura.

Vatengi vekudya, simba uye kushandiswa kwesimbi mune ramangwana zvibvumirano zvekugadzirisa mutengo wezvinhu zvavari kutenga.

Izvozvo zvinoderedza ngozi yavo kuti mitengo ichakwira. Vatengesi vezvinhu izvi vanoshandisa nguva yemberi kuti vaone kuti vachagamuchira mutengo unobvumirana. Vanobvisa njodzi yokuti mitengo ichaderera.

Izvozvo nokuti mitengo yezvinhu zvinoshanduka pavhiki nevhiki kana kunyange zuva nezuva. Kambani mitengo inoshanduka zvakare. Ndokusaka mari yako yezvokudya, petoro negoridhe kuchinja kakawanda.

Maitiro Avanoita

Kana mutengo wezvinhu zvepanyika zvichikwira, mutengi wekambani yemagariro anoita mari. Anowana chibereko pamusika wepasi, wakagamuchirwa uye zvino unogona kuutengesa pamutengo wepamusoro wemusika wezuva ranhasi. Kana mutengo wacho uchidzika, mutengesi wemangwana anoita mari. Anokwanisa kutengesa zvinhu zviri pamusika wepamusika wekutengesa, uye unozvitengesa kune ramangwana mutengi pane yakakwirira, yakagamuchirwa mutengo.

Kana vatengesi vemabhizimisi vaifanira kutumira chigadzirwa, vashomanana vanhu vaizozviita. Pane kudaro, vanogona kuzadzisa chibvumirano kuburikidza nekupa uchapupu hwokuti chigadzirwa chacho chiri muimba yekuchengetera.

Vanokwanisawo kubhadhara mutengo wemari, kana kupa neimwe kontrakiti pamutengo wemusika.

Nzira Yokushandisa Sei?

Nzira dzakachengeteka dzekutsvaga mune ramangwana rezvemari ndezvemari yemari. Vanogona kuva zvinhu zvekutsinhana-kutengesa mari kana mutengo wemari pamwe chete. Mari idzi dzinosanganisira mararamiro akawanda emangwana anowanikwa panguva ipi zvayo.

Kutengesa mune ramangwana rezvigadzirwa uye zvibvumirano zvesungo zvakaoma zvikuru uye zvine ngozi. Zvinhu zvekutengesa mitengo zvakanyanyisa. Misika yacho yakazara nemabasa ekunyengera. Kana iwe usina chokwadi zvachose chezvauri kuita, iwe unogona kurasikirwa nezvakawanda kupfuura kutanga kwako kwekutsvaga.

Usati waita mari, verenga Commodities Profiles uye Day Trading mune Commodities Futures . Uyewo, dzokerai kuTFFC Mutungamiri weKunyangadza Chiitiko uye Education Center.

Maitiro Avanoita Mafuta

Zvigadzirwa zvemazuva ano zvakarurama kunyatsoongorora mutengo wezvinhu zvakasikwa nokuti vanobatana pamusika wakashama. Vanotaridzirawo kukosha kwezvinhu zviri mberi mune ramangwana. Iko maitiro anoiswa nevatengesi uye vanoongorora. Vanopedza zuva rose zuva roga roga vachitsvakurudza zvimwe zvinhu zvavo . Zvanotsanangurwa pakarepo zvinobatanidza nhau dzezuva nezuva. Somuenzaniso, kana Iran inotyisidzira kuvhara Strait yeHormuz, mutengo wemari uchachinja zvikuru.

Dzimwe nguva zvigadzirwa zvemangwana zvinoratidza manzwiro evatengesi kana mumusika kupfuura zvokupa uye zvinoda. Vatsoropodzi vanotengesa matengo kuti vaite purogiramu kana dambudziko richiitika uye vanofungidzira kushaikwa. Apo vamwe vatengesi vanoona kuti mutengo wezvokudya uri kudengenyeka, vanoumba hondo yekuda. Icho chinotungamirira mutengo wacho kunyange wakakwirira.

Asi zvinyorwa zvekugovera uye kudiwa hazvina kuchinja. Apo dambudziko racho rapera, mitengo ichadzoka zvakare pasi pano.

Uyewo, zvigadzirwa zvinotengeswa mumadhora e US. Sezvo kukosha kwedhora kunowedzera, mutengo wezvinhu zvinowira. Izvi ndizvo zvinoreva kuti vatengesi vanogona kuwana mari yakafanana yezvinhu zvemari shoma. (Chinyorwa: " Kusanzwisisana Kwepakati Pakati PeDollar uye Zvokudya ")

Mienzaniso

Mafuta. Vatengesi vanofungisisa zvose zvese pamusoro pekugovera mafuta uye kudiwa, pamwe chete nemafungiro evanhu. Izvi zvinokanganisa mitengo yemafuta. Iko mafungiro aya ari shure kwekutengeswa kwemafuta anowedzera hupfumi zvakanyanya. Izvi ndezvokuti mutengo wemafuta unopindira zvakanaka zvose uye basa rinobudiswa muAmerica.

Somuenzaniso, muna 2008 mitengo yemafuta yakawedzera. Izvo zvakanga zviri pasinei nokuti izvo zvaidiwa pasi rose zvaive pasi, uye nyika yose yakanga iripo.

Sangano reMagetsi eZvamusoro rakashuma kuti kushandiswa kwemafuta kwakaderera kubva pamamiriyoni 86.66 mamiriyoni pazuva (bpd) muchina yechina ye 2007 kusvika kune 85.73 mamiriyoni bpd mugore rechipiri rokutanga 2008. Panguva iyi yakafanana, kupa mabhuku kwakawedzera mamiriyoni 85,49 mamiriyoni kusvika 86.17 mamiriyoni bpd. Maererano nemitemo yekugovera uye kuda, mitengo inofanira kunge yakaderera. Panzvimbo pacho, pamusi waMay makasimuka anenge anenge 25 kubva muzana, kubva pa $ 87.79 kusvika ku $ 110.21 pamubhairi wemafuta.

IEIA yakashuma kuti "kupera kwekutsvaga mari mumari yekutengesa" kwakakonzera chiitiko. Vatengesi vakaparadzanisa mari kubva kuimba chaiyo kana mashizha kupinda mune ramangwana ramangwana. Gare gare gore iroro, vatengesi vemabhizimisi vakafambisa vakatengesa mutengo wacho kusvika kune nguva yose yakakwirira ye $ 145 nemuranda.

Muna 2011, mutengo wemafuta hauna kutanga kuwedzera kusvika munaMei, kutumira zvigetsi zvekutengesa pakarepo. Icho chaiva chikonzero chevatengesi vachitarisira mafuta akakwirira uye gasi mitengo yepamusoro nekuda kwekudiwa kwepamusoro kubva munguva yekufambisa kwezhizha. Mafuta anoita 72 muzana yemutengo wegesi. Apo mitengo yemafuta inomuka, inowanzoonekwa mumagetsi emitengo mavhiki matatu kusvika matanhatu gare gare. Nokuda kwezvimwe, ona Mafuta Akawandisa Mafuta Anogadzirisa Gari Dzimba .

Muna 2012, Iran yakatyisidzira kuvhara Strait yeHormuz, imwe yenyika inonyanya kushandiswa nemafambisi emigwagwa. Vatengesi vakavhiringidzika kuti kuvharwa kweStrarait kunogona kugadzirisa mafuta. Vanotumira mitengo yemafuta muna March, kutumira mitengo yegesi yakakwirira munaEpril.

MunaJanuary 2013, vatengesi vanobhadhara mitengo yemafuta pakutanga kwegore. Iran yakagadzira kutya kuburira mitambo yehondo pedyo neStrarait. Musi waFebruary 8, mutengo wemafuta wakanga wakwira kusvika $ 118.90 / murongo, kutumira mitengo yegesi kusvika $ 3.85 neFebruary 25. Nokuwedzera, ona Chii Chinoita Mafuta Mafuta Saizvozvo?

Metals. Muna 2011, goridhe yakarova nguva yose yakakwirira ye $ 1,895 imwechete. Kuda uye kupa zvinhu kwakanga kusina kuchinja, asi vatengesi vanotsvaga mitengo yegoridhe maererano nekutya kwekusava nechokwadi kwehupfumi. Ndarama inowanzotengwa munguva dzekutambudzika nokuti vanhu vakawanda vanoiona se nzvimbo yakachengeteka. Nokuda kwezvakawanda , ona Gove yeGolide uye US Economy .

Muna 2014, nhamba yeodhora yakawedzera 15 muzana. Pakazosvika gore ra2015, aluminium yemari yakanga yawa 19 kubva muzana, nemitengo yemhangura yaiva pasi 27 muzana. Mafuta ainge akarohwa zvakanyanya, sezvo mutengo wakawira kune makore matanhatu pasi. (Chinyorwa: "Copper, Aluminium Fall kusvika Segore Rakatanhatu," The Wall Street Journal, August 3, 2015.)

Kudyidzana uye kuda kwaiva nemafungiro pamwe chete. Uchine hupfumi hweChina hwakatanga kunonoka, kuderedza kudiwa kwemhangura. Sezvo chikamu chekugadzirisa kwezvoupfumi , China yakanga ichichinja kubva pakuvakwa kumashandisi ekushandisa. Yaida kuvimba zvishomanana pane zvekutengeserana, uye zvizhinji pamusoro pekuda kweimba. Izvo zvinowedzera kuderedza kudiwa kwemhangura, sezvo kuvakwa kweimba kunoshandisa yakawanda mhangura pane zvinowanikwa mumutengesi. Imhizha yekuvaka yeChina yakashandisa mamiriyoni matatu kusvika kune mamirioni mana pagore. Izvo zvakaenzana neyaishandiswa nehupfumi hwose hweUnited States, Japan, Canada neMexico pamwe chete.

Panguva imwe chete, China yakawedzerwa kune kugoverwa kwezvinhu, kuwedzera kuderedza mitengo. Muna 2014, nyika yakabudisa 52 muzana yepasi rose aluminium. Yakasimbisa chiyero ichocho muna 2015, ichiwedzera 10 muzana kupa. (Chinyorwa: "Metal Meltdown," Bloomberg BusinessWeek, Gumiguru 11, 2015.)

Muna July 2015, Shanghai Shandan Exchange yakatengesa $ 200 mamiriyoni egoridhe. Izvozvo zvakatumira mitengo pasi pasi rose. Yakatengesa matani 316 munaJuly, 44 kubva muzana kubva muna 2014. Bhizinesi reChina rakava chikamu cheLondon-based Gold Fix-price-setting mechanism. IX Shanghai Futures Exchange inoshandisa 31% yesimbi, zinc, uye aluminium. ILondon Metals Exchange yakatengwa neHong Kong Exchange . (Chinyorwa: "Giant Appetite," WSJ , August 26, 2015.)

Zvokudya. Muna 2008, vatengesi vemabhizimisi vakagadzira mitengo yepamusoro yezvokudya . Izvozvo zvakatungamirira kumhirizhonga munyika dzisina kudzika. Kutanga, vatengesi vakatsausa mari kubva pamusika wekutengesa kusvika kune zviyo, gorosi nezvimwe zvinhu. Chechipiri, ivo vakatsausawo mari mumatoro emafuta. Vakagadzira kudhura kwepamusoro kudhura kwekudya. (Kubva: "Bhood Commodity Inopfuurira Kufamba," BBC, January 16, 2008. "Mhirizhonga, Kuziva Kunopararira Sezvokudya Zvimwe Zvitsva," CNN, February 18, 2008.)