OPEC yave ichirwisana neUSle shale mafuta varairi vemugove wemari. Shale vashandi vakashandisa hupfumi hweUnited States kusvika 9,4 mami mbpd muna 2015.
Iyo yakagogodza OPEC yemugove inosvika 41,8 muzana muna 2014 kubva pa44.5 muzana muna 2012. Izvi zvakanyanya kuwedzera zvakakonzera kutengesa kwemafuta emafuta. Izvozvo zvakagadzira chikwata uye kushambadzira muindasitiri yemafuta yeU.S. shale .
OPEC haadi kuti mitengo iwedzere, kana kuti dzimwe nzvimbo dzinotora mafuta kunotanga kutarisa zvakanaka zvakare. Mutengo weOOPEC wemafuta ndeye $ 70- $ 80 bharari. Asi vashandi ve US shale vanoda $ 40- $ 50 mubharani kuti vabhadhara zvikwereti zvakakwirira-izvo zvavakashandisa pakutsvaga mari. Kusvikira 2016, OPEC yakagamuchira mutengo wakaderera kuti uchengetedze mutengo wemusika.
Kazhinji, mafuta uye gesi mutengo zvinogona kutarisirwa nezvinofanotaurwa nenguva yegore. Vanomuka mukati megore uye vanowira mumoto. Izvi ndezvokuti mune ramangwana vanotengesa kutarisira kuwedzera kwekuda kwekufambisa kwekufambisa kwegore. Kunyange zvazvo kushandiswa kwemafuta kushandiswa kunowedzera munguva yechando, hazvina kukwana kugadzirisa doro rekuzorodzwa mune petero rinoda.
Chimwe chinokonzera mitengo yemafuta inodhora .
Zvibvumirano zvakawanda zvemafuta pasi pose zvakatengeswa mumadhora. Somugumisiro, nyika dzinotengesa mafuta zvinowanzovhara mari yavo kudhora. Apo dhora rinoderera, ndizvo zvakaita mafuta avo emari, asi mari yavo inokwira. Nokudaro, OPEC inofanira kusimudza mutengo wemafuta kuti uchengetedze mararamiro ayo uye uchengetedze mari dzekutengeswa kwezvinhu nguva dzose.
Kuenzanisa ne Past Oil Price Hikes
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Pakazosvika gore ra2015, US shale mafuta ekugadzirwa kwezvinhu yakawira mukuderedza mitengo yakaderera. Sokutaura kwaJos Mitchell muWall Street Journal, nhamba yekuchera mabheji yakaderera 44 kubva muzana rokutanga.
Nhamba dzemafuta eU.S. (West Texas Intermediate) dzakanga dzawa makumi mana kubva muzana kubva ku $ 106 / mbiya munaJune 2014 kusvika ku $ 59 / murongo munaDecember. Icho chaiva mukupindura kune zvakapiwa mvura. Panguva imwecheteyo, vatengesi vepamberi vakatengesa kukosha kwedhora nemapfumbamwe muzana muna 2014. Sezvo mafuta ari mutengo mumadhora, izvi zvakasimudzira OPEC nevamwe vatori vemunyika kubva kune imwe yemutengo wamafuta kuderera. Ndicho chikonzero nei Saudi Arabia yakatevera chikamu chemusika panzvimbo yekucheka michina nekusimudza mitengo.
2013. Pakupera kwegore raAugust 2013, mutengo weOctober kutengeswa kweBrent mafuta asina kuchena wakasvika ku $ 115.59 / barrel, yakakwirira mumwedzi mitanhatu. Mitengo yeWest Texas Inyanzvi yakasvibirira yakasimuka kusvika ku $ 109.98 / mbiya, yakakwirira makore maviri. Vatengesi vanokwidza matengo mushure mokunge United States ichizivisa kuti ingashandisa airstrikes kuranga Siria weMutungamiri Assad nekushandisa zvombo zvemakemikari kuuraya mazana evanhu.
Siria haisi huru yemafuta, asi vatengesi vane hanya pamusoro pezvinogona kuitika zvekurova.
Izvi zvinosanganisira kuvhiringidzwa kwemafuta kubva kuIran, sangano guru reSiria, kupopotedzana muIraq, uye zvinowedzera kukanganiswa muEgypt.
Musi waJuly 18, 2013, mutengo wemafuta wakarova $ 109.71 / murongo weBrent mafuta asina kuchena . Icho chaiva chikonzero chaiva kubviswa kweMutungamiri weEgypt Morsi kubva muhofisi. Zvinhu zvevatengesi zvinonetseka, pasina chikonzero, kuti Ijipiti yaizovhara Suez Canal kana mhirizhonga ichipararira.
MunaJanuary 2013, mitengo yemafuta yakasimuka apo Iran yakaita mitambo yehondo pedyo neS Straits of Hormuz. Vatengesi vakaona kuti sechinhu chinogona kutyisidzira iyo nzira yekugadzira nzira. Pakazosvika 8 February, mafuta akanga asvika $ 118.90 / mbiya. Izvozvo zvakatumira mutengo wegesi kusvika $ 3.85 negoroni kusvikaFebruary 25.
2012. Nhamba dzemafuta dzakatanga kuwedzera nokukurumidza muna 2012 kupfuura zvavakaita mugore ra2011. Mutengo weWTI mafuta yakashata wakaputsa pamusoro pe $ 100 / barrel February 13, 2012, vhiki mbiri mberi kwegore ra2011. Kuwedzera kwemafuta emafuta kunokonzera mitengo yepamusoro ye $ 3.50 negori vhiki imwechete.
Gesi mitengo yainge yatoputsa $ 3.50 negori kumabvazuva uye kumavirira kumativi munaJanuary.
Pakazosvika March, Brent mafuta asina kukwana akawana $ 125 / mbiya. Yakagadzirirwa kusvika $ 95 / mbiya munaJune, asi yakasvika ku $ 113.36 munaAugust. Kazhinji, mitengo yemafuta inodonha pakuwa uye munguva yechando. Asi gore rino, zvigadzirwa zvemazuva ekupedzisira vatengesi vaizoita kuti mitengo yemafuta ikwanise kubhadhara mari yeFed inowedzera mari . Vakanga vari kutengesa dhora raizodonha uye kuendesa mberi kwemafuta emafuta. Vakanga vasina kukanganisa nezvemadhora, asi mitengo yemafuta yakasimuka pasinei nekuderera kwakaderera.
2011. Mitengo yemafuta yakasvibiswa yakasvika kune yakadarika $ 113.93 Kubvumbi 29, 2011. Mitengo yakanga ichiwedzera zvishoma kubva munaFebruary 2009, apo yakasvika ku $ 39 / murongo. Vakakonzera pfuma yakawanda $ 70- $ 80 mubhadharo kusvika pakupera kwegore ra2010. Petroleum inobatsirawo muhuta. Izvi, zvinosanganiswa nepamusoro yekutengesa mari, inowedzera mutengo wezvokudya . Simba rinotakura mitengo yakawanda yemafuta rakanga rakafanana nezvakaitika apo mafuta akarova nguva dzose muna 2008.
2008. Nhamba dzemafuta dzakakonzera nguva yose yakakwirira ye $ 143.68 / mbiya munaJuly 2008, mushure mokunge ichikwira 25 muzana mumwedzi mitatu. Izvi zvakafambisa mutengo wemagesi kusvika $ 4.17 negoroni. Nhau dzakawanda dzinotsanangurwa dzinopomerwa kuendesa kuda kuibva kuChina neIndia , pamwe chete nechipo chinopera chinobva kuNigeria neArabic masimi emafuta.
Asi kuderera kwaiva mhaka chaiye. Kudiwa kwenyika yose muna 2008 kwakange kuri pasi uye pasi rose raive rakagadzirwa. Mafuta anoshandiswa akaderera kubva pamamiriyoni 86.66 mamiriyoni pazuva (bpd) muchina yechina ye 2007 kusvika kune 85.73 mamiriyoni bpd mukutanga kwegore ra2008. Panguva imwe chete, kupa kwakakura kubva 85.49 kusvika 86.17 mamiriyoni bpd. Maererano nemutemo wekutsvaga , mitengo inofanira kunge yakaderera. Pane kudaro, vakawedzera anenge 25 kubva muzana, kubva pa $ 87.79 kusvika ku $ 110.21 pari.
IEIA yakaita chikamu chemhosva yekutsamwa kweVenezuela neNigeria uye kuwedzera kwekudiwa kubva kuChina. Yakabvunzurudzawo kana kuwedzera kwekutsvaga mari mune zvigadzirwa zvemisika kungave kwakakanganisa matengo. Vashandi vaive vachidengenyeka kubva kunze kwezvivako zvekugara uye misika yemabhizimisi . Vakatengesa mari yavo kune ramangwana mafuta panzvimbo. Izvi zvakakonzerwa nekukwira zvakakonzera madhairi emafuta.
Iko kuburitsa kwebasa nokukurumidza kwakapararira kune zvimwe zvinhu . Mari yevatengesi yakazadza gorosi, ndarama , nedzimwe nguva dzine chokuita nemisika. Yakatsvaga mitengo yezvokudya pasi pose. Izvozvo zvakagadzira nzara uye zvokudya zvinokanganisa munyika dzichiri kusimukira.