Sei Munhu Aigona Kuisa Mari Zvisungo Zvisina Mwero?
Iyo isina kushandiswa kwebhizimisi yemakakiti inokupa chiratidzo chekutanga chekuti vatengesi vengozi vangada kutora sei.
Kana varairidzi vanobuda kunze kwezvisungo zvisingabatsiri, izvi zvinoreva kuti vari kuwedzera kuisa njodzi uye havafungi nezvakanaka nezvehupfumi. Izvo zvinofanotaura kugadziriswa kwemusika , mushamba webhebhu kana kupesana mubhizinesi.
Kune rumwe rutivi, kana zvisungo zvisingashandisi zviri kutengwa, zvinoreva kuti vatengesi vava kunyanya kuvimba nezvehupfumi uye vanoda kutora ngozi yakawanda. Izvozvo zvinofanirwa kutengeswa kwemakemikari, misika yemombe kana kuwedzera kwezvemari. (Chinyorwa: The Reformed Broker, Chii Chiri Zvisungo Zvisiri Kuedza Kutitaurira, August 21, 2013)
Kuyera
Zvisungo zvisingabatsiri zvakarongwa naMoody's uye Standard & Poor's sekufungidzira. Izvozvo zvinoreva kukwanisa kwekambani yekudzivisa kutadza kunopererwa nekusava nechokwadi. Iko kunosanganisira kukonzera kwekambani kumabhizimisi akaipa kana mamiriro ehupfumi.
Chiyero cheBa kana BB hachina kufungidzira kupfuura C rating. Zvizhinji zvizhinji zvisungo zvakaverengwa B. Heino mahedheni akasiyana:
- High Risk - Rated Ba kana B naMoody's, uye BB kana B ne Standard & Poor's. Iko kambani ikozvino inogona kukwanisa kubhadhara zvikwereti, asi zvichida hazvizoiti kana hupfumi kana bhizimisi zvichanyanya kuwedzera. Izvozvo ndezvokuti zvinowanzosangana nematambudziko.
- Dambudziko Rakakwirira-Rated Caa, Ca kana C naMoody's, naCCC, CC kana C kuburikidza ne Standard & Poor's. Bhizimisi nemamiriro ehupfumi anofanirwa kuve akanaka kune kambani yekudzivisa kusina.
- Mukusingaperi - Rated C neMoody's uye D na Standard & Poor's. Ikozvino iko kusina.
Vashandi vanoisa zvikwata zvisingabatsiri se "Ngirozi Dzakawirwa" kana "Kudenga Nyeredzi." Iyo yekare ndiyo masangano aimbova yekutanga mabhizimusi.
Dare rechikwereti rakaderedza chiyero apo chikwereti chekambani chakaipa. "Kusimudza nyeredzi" zvibvumirano zvisina basa izvo zvikwereti zvakakonzerwa nokuti chikwereti chekambani chakavandudzwa. Vangaguma vagova mabhizimisi ebhizimisi.
Kupa mukana wepamusoro wekutengesa kwekutadza, kusagadzikana kwezvisungo zvinowanzoita 4-6 mapeji akakwirira kudarika avo vanoenzaniswa neUnited States Treasury, ayo anotsigirwa nehurumende yehurumende. Kusununguka kwezvisungo zvinokonzera chikwereti chezvikamu makumi mapfumbamwe zvemazana zveUnited States nemari inopfuura $ 35 mamiriyoni, uye 100% yechikwereti chemakambani ane mari yakaderera kupfuura iyo. Semuenzaniso, makambani akajairika seSouth Steel, Delta, uye Dole Foods anobvisa zvisungo zvisingabatsiri. (Zvinyorwa: NASDAQ, Zvose Zvaunoda Kuziva Pamusoro Pemabhadharo Asingawaniki Creighton EDU, Tsanangudzo yeHunk Bond Ratings)
Kubatsirwa
Zvisungo zvisingabatsiri zvinogona kukurudzira zvakakwana zvekudzoka mune ramapato ako asi uchidzivirira kukwirira kwekuwedzera kwematokari . Chokutanga, vanopa zvibereko zvakakwirira kudarika zvikwereti-bhizimisi zvisungo. Chechipiri, vane mukana wekuita kunyange zviri nani kana vakagadziridzwa apo bhizinesi rinovandudza. Nokuda kweizvi, zvisungo zvisingabatsiri hazvibatanidzi zvakanyanya kune dzimwe zvisungo.
Zvisungo zvisingabatsiri zvakanyanyobatana nematokari asiwo zvinopa zvikwereti zvakagadziriswa. Vashandi vemari vanobhadhara pamberi pevashambadziri kana vakanganisa.
Imwe nzira ndeyekuti inowanzopiwa nemakore gumi (kana pasi), uye inogona kudanwa pashure pemakore mana kusvika mashanu. Zvisungo zvisingabatsiri zvinoshanda zvakanakisisa muchikamu chekuwedzera chebhizimisi . Ndiyokuti makambani ari pasi pfupi haakwanisi kuchinja apo nguva dzakanaka, izvo zvinoderedza ngozi. (Ikoko: PIMCO, Masitemu Okushambadzira)
Kukanganisika
Kana bhizimisi racho risati rafa, iwe ucharasikirwa ne100% yekutsvaga kwako kwekutanga. Izvozvo zvinoreva kuti unofanirwa kuongorora iyo ngozi yechikwereti yekambani imwe neimwe. Kana iwe ukasimudza mune mari yakawanda- yekutengeserana mari panzvimbo iyo, maneja anoita izvozvo asati atenga chero zvisungo.
Imwe nzira isina kukanganisa ndeyokuti makambani akafanirwa nekwereti anogona kubatwa nehutsika husina kunaka hwehupfumi. Vane mari inoyerera kuti vabhadhara zvikwereti zvavo kune zvikwereti zviripo. Kunyange zvakadaro, vamwe vavo vanoshanda vasina kukwana pazvisungo zvavo.
Izvi zvinotumira chido chekufarira chichikwira pamusoro pezvisungo zvose mumhizha yavo. Apo panouya nguva yekugadzirisa, havagoni kuwana mari yakakwirira.
Zvisungo zvisingabatsiri zvinowanzoshungurudzika kune chido chekuwedzera. Kana zvibereko zvekurima zvichisvika, mabhanhire haatombodi kukwereta. Izvi zvinokonzerwa nokuti vanokwereta pamari shoma shoma yemari uye vanowedzera chikwereti chenguva refu uye yemari yemari. Makambani anoverengeka haazokwanisi kugadzirisa kana kutora zvisungo zvitsva. Tarisiro yeFed kukwidziridza muDisemba yakakanda vatengesi kuva nekutya. (Chinyorwa: "Chinoitika Hachisi Mumatenga," Economist , Kubvumbi 25, 2015.)
Sei Munhu Aigona Kuisa Mari Zvisungo Zvisina Mwero?
Zvisungo zvisingabatsiri ndezvokuchengetedza zvakanaka kune avo vanoda kudzoka kwakakwirira, uye vanogona kukwanisa kuisa njodzi yakanyanya. Kunyange zvakadaro, zvinokurudzirwa kuti uzvitengese chete muchikamu chekuwedzera chebhizimisi . Iwe unogona kutora zvakanakira nekudzoka kwepamusoro nehuwandu huwandu hwengozi. Heino zvakawanda pamusoro peJunk Bond Market.
Nzira Yokutenga Bunk Bonds
Iwe unogona kutengesa zvisungo zvisiri pamunhu mumwe nomumwe kana kuburikidza nehuwandu hwekubhadhara mari kuburikidza nemupi wezano wezvemari. Mari ndeye nzira yakanakisisa yekuenda kune mumwe munhu wekusimbisa mari nekuti inotungamirirwa nevatungamiri vane ruzivo rwakakosha runodiwa kuti asarudze hutano hwakanaka. Ramba uchifunga kuti mari zhinji dzinokudzivisa kubva kubvisa mari yako yegore rokutanga kana maviri. (Ikoko: Kuisa muBonds.com)
Imwe nzira yekuisa mari ndeyekushandiswa kwemari kushandiswa kwebhadha. Iyo huru mbiri ndeye HYG uye JNK.
Nhoroondo
Muma1780, hurumende itsva yeUnited States yaifanira kubvisa zvisungo zvisingabatsiri nokuti dambudziko renyika yekutadza rakanga rakakwirira. Mukutanga kwema1900, zvisungo zvisingabatsiri zvakadzokera kuzobhadhara kutanga-ups kwemakambani anozivikanwa nhasi: GM, IBM, uye JP Morgan's US Steel. Mushure meizvozvo, zvisungo zvose zvaive bhajiro yekutsvaga kusvika kuma1970, kunze kweavo vakanga vave "ngirozi dzakarara." Kambani ipi yaifungidzirwa yaifanira kubhadhara zvikwereti kubva kumabhangi kana kuti vashandi vemari.
Muna 1977, Bear Stearns yakanyora pasi chisungo chekutanga chisina kushandiswa mumakumi makumi emakore. Drexel Burnham akabva atengesa zvimwe zvisungo zvisingasviki zvinomwe. Mumakore matanhatu chete, zvisungo zvisingabatsiri zvinopfuura chikamu chimwe chete pazvikamu zvitatu zvezvisungo zvekambani.
Sei? Chikonzero chikuru chekutsvakurudza kwakabudiswa naW. W. Braddock Hickman, Thomas R. Atkinson, Orin K. Burrell, iyo yakaratidza kusungwa zvisina kubhadhara kwakapa zvakawanda kudzoka kupfuura zvakakosha kune ngozi. Drexel Burnam waMichael Milken akashandisa tsvakurudzo iyi kuti awedzere mari yakashambadzira mabhizimusi, iyo yakakura kubva $ 10 mabhiriyoni muna 1979 kusvika kune $ 189 mabhiriyoni muna 1989. Mumakore gumi ekutengeserana kwezvoupfumi, kusungwa kwemajeri kunoberekerwa 14.5% asi pasina chakanga chiri 2.2% chete.
Zvisinei, Milken naDrexel Burnham vakaderedzwa naRudolph Giuliani uye vakwikwidzana vezvemari avo vaimbova vatongi vemakambani ekukweretesa kwekambani nepamusana wekutengesa kwemahombekiti kwakaguma nekudengenyeka kwemakambani kwechinguva uye kuparadzwa kwaDrexel Burnham. Kakawanda usiku, misika yezvisungo zvitsva zvakasununguka zvakanyangarika, uye hapana nhau dzakashata dzisina kuwanikwa dzakauya kuzotengesa kwegore rinopfuura. Izvo zvisungo zvisingabhadharwi mumakaka hazvina kudzoka kusvika muna 1991. (Chinyorwa: Glenn Yago, Library ye Economics uye Freed, Junk Bonds)
Kusununguka kwezvisungo zvekutengesa zvakabviswa muzhizha ra2013 mukupindura kwechiziviso cheF Fed icho chaizotanga kuwedzera kuwedzera kuwanda Kwekuda . Izvozvo zvaireva kuti Fed yaizotenga zvishomanana zvinyorwa zveMariki, chiratidzo chokuti ichi chiri kuderedza mutemo wayo wekuwedzera wemari uye kuti hupfumi hwaive huri nani. Somugumisiro, zvikwereti zvinowanikwa paHaidurys uye kushandiswa kwezvikwereti zvebatosi zvakasimuka, sezvo vashandi vatanga kutengesa zvavanotarisira pamberi peumwe munhu wese.
Mari yacho yakaenda kupi? Zvakawanda zvakaenda kuzvisungo zvisingabatsiri nokuti vatengesi vakaona kudzoka kwakakodzera kukosha. Sezvo uwandu hwehupfumi hwaive huri nani, zvaireva kuti makambani akanga asingakwanisi kutadza.
Chikumbiro chakanga chakakwirira zvikuru zvokuti mabhenji akatanga kuvhara mabhandi aya asina kuvhara uye kuvengesa sezvikwereti zvakakonzerwa nematokari . Izvo izvi zvikwereti zvinotsigirwa nehomwe yezvikwereti. Vakabatsira kubhadharisa dambudziko rezvemari ra2008 nekuti makambani akange asina kukweretwa pamabhadharo apo hupfumi hwakatanga kutadza.
Somugumisiro, mabhanki mashomanana akavatengesa kusvika muna 2013. Ndiyo apo kudiwa kwezvisungo zvisina kuwedzera kwakawedzera. Mabhengi aidawo mari yakawanda kuti asangane neDodd-Frank inoda. (Kubva: Housing Wired, Junk Bonds nePenicillin yeFed Tapering, August 19, 2013)
Pakati pegore ra2005 ne2015, mari yeUnited States yakashambadzira mabhizimusi yakawedzera 80% kusvika $ 1.3 triliyoni. Simba junk bonds yakasimuka 180% munguva iyoyo kusvika ku $ 200 mamiriyoni. Vashandi vanoshandisa mari yepamusoro-inotora mari yekudurura mari mumashonga ekugadzira mafuta emafuta. Somugumisiro, makambani emagetsi akaisa 16% kusvika 20% yepamusoro-kutengeserana kwebhizimisi.
Mafuta emafuta akaputika muna 2014, achibata vazhinji vemu US shale mafuta drillers kunze-varindi. PanaSeptember 2015, zvinopfuura 15% zvehutano hwakanyanya-hutsika dzakanga dziri "kutambudzika". Izvozvo zvinoreva kuti vanogona kutadza mumwedzi mipfumbamwe inotevera. Makambani anovabudisa ari kutambudzika kuwana zvikwereti kana kubvisa zvikwereti. Kukosha kwezvisungo zvakaderera zvakanyanya zvokuti varairi vanoda chikwereti chekutora 10% yakakwirira kudarika US Treasury. (Kubva: "Nhamba Yakawanda," WSJ, September 29, 2015)
Musi waDecember 12, 2015, Third Avenue Focused Credit Fund yakavhara mushure mokurasika 27% mugore. Yakagadzirisa kuregererwa kunzvenga kutengesa moto. Pane kudaro, yakavimbisa kubhadhara vatori vemabhizimisi mari yakawandisa musi waDecember 16. Izvi zvinoshamisika misika, sezvo zvingaitika kune vamwe vanozvipa mari. Iko kutengeswa kwakaenderera mberi. (Kubva: "Third Avenue Credit Fund Inopedza," Barron's, December 12, 2015.)
Imwe dambudziko nderekuti makambani ekutanga emakambani akabudisa akawanda mahombekiti ekurehwa mu US dollars. Dhora re 25% rinokwira rinoreva kuti chikwereti chavo chekubhadhara ndechekuti inodhura zvikuru. Icho chinetso chikuru kune dzimwe nyika, seTurkey, iyo isina mari yakakwana mumari yavo yekunze kwenyika . Kuita kuti zvinhu zviwedzere, mazhinji ema nyika aya anotengesa zvinhu. Nhamba idzodzo dzakaderera zvikuru mumakore maviri akapfuura. (Mhedziso: "Fed haigoni Duck Buck's Strength," WSJ, February 3, 2016.)