Nzira Yokushandisa Nayo Yakasvibirika, Yakapetwa, uye Yakashandurwa Kugovera Mavheti Kufanotaura Nezveramangwana
Dhipatimendi reMariki rinotarisa chinotarisana nechiso chepamusoro uye chikwereti chekuda kweHaidurys.
Izvo zvino unovatengesa pane imwe nzvimbo. High demand inotengesa mutengo wacho pamusoro pekukosha kwemaziso. Izvozvo zvinoderedza chibereko nokuti hurumende ichadzorera chete kukosha kwemaziso pamwe chete nehuwandu hwekufarira. Kutsvaga kwakaderera kunotungamirira mutengo uri pasi pekutarisana nechiso. Iko kunowedzera muchero nokuti mutengi akabhadhara zvishoma nokuda kwechibvumirano , asi anogamuchira chidimbu chimwe chechibereko. Ndokusaka zvibereko zvinogara zvichienda kune zvakasiyana nedzimwe mari yehurumende yekutengeserana. Pfuma inobereka inoramba ichishandura nokuti inowanikwa zuva rega rega pamusika.
Muchero wekurima unotsanangura zvibereko zveHaimari mabhiridha, manotsi uye zvisungo. Inonzi mhete nokuti, kana yakarongerwa pane grafu, zvibereko zvaiwanzoka kutsika. Izvi ndezvokuti mari yebhadharo, iyo yemazuva mashomanene, haawanzobhadhara sepamusoro wezvibereko semashizha ekupedzisira uye nguva refu. Sei? Vashandi havatarisiri kutora kwakakwirira kwekudzorera kuchengeta mari yavo vakasungwa kwenguva pfupi.
Vanoita, zvisinei, vanotarisira kudzoka kwepamusoro yekuchengeta mari yavo kunze kwekupararira kwemakumi emakore.
Zvakaoma kufungidzira kuti mumwe munhu aizotenga chikamu chemakore makumi matatu emari yeHurumende uye achingoita kuti igare, tichiziva kuti kudzoka pahupfumi hwavo kwaingova mazana mashoma pfumbamwe. Asi, vamwe varimi vanonyanya kunetseka pamusoro pekurasikirwa kwavanenge vachida kubvisa kudzoka kwepamusoro pakuiswa kwavo mumusika wekutengesa kana pfuma.
Vanoziva kuti hurumende yehurumende haichazogadziri pane chikwereti.
Munyika isina chokwadi, vashandi vakawanda vanozvipira kupa chibayiro chepamusoro chechivimbiso ichocho. Izvi zvakakosha, kunyange zvazvo vatengesi vasiri kutenga Treasurys uye vanovabata. Vanovatengesa pamusika wechipiri . Ndiyo apo vanochengetedza Treasurys vanovatengesa kuvasimari vakaita semari yepenjeni , makambani einishuwarenzi, uye kubhadhara mari pamwe chete.
Mhando dzeZvipfeko Curves
Kune marudzi matatu emichero mazai. Vanokuudza kuti vatengesi vakawira sei pamusoro pehupfumi. Nokuda kwechikonzero ichocho, iyo inoratidziro inobatsira yekukura mune zvehupfumi.
Chirwere chekugadzirwa kwemazuva ose ndeye apo vashandi vanovimba, uye vanonyara kubva kumashoko ekupedzisira, zvichiita kuti zvibereko izvi zvikure zvakanyanya. Izvozvo zvinoreva kuti vanotarisira kuti hupfumi huchakura nokukurumidza.
Izvi zvinorevei kwauri? Mari inotora chikwereti uye zvimwe zvikwereti zvinotevera chibereko chezvibereko . Kana paine chigadzirwa chemaviramu chaiwo, makore makumi matatu ekugadziriswa anotora chikwereti chaunoda kuti iwe ubhadharwe mari yepamusoro yekutora kupfuura makore gumi nemashanu. Kana iwe uchikwanisa kubhadhara mari yacho, iwe unenge uri nani zvikuru, pakufamba kwenguva, uchiedza kukodzero yemakore gumi nemashanu ekubhadhara mari.
A flat flat yield curve ndeye apo zvibereko zviri pasi pasi pebhodhi. Zvinoratidza kuti vatengesi vanotarisira kukura zvishoma.
Izvo zvinogonawo kureva kuti hutungamiri hwehupfumi huri kutumira mashoko akasanganiswa, uye vamwe varimi vanotarisira kukura apo vamwe vasiri sechokwadi.
Apo chibereko chekuvhara chikafu, hausi kuzochengetedza zvakanyanya nemakore gumi nemashanu ekubhadhara mari. Iwe unogonawo kutora chikwereti chemakore makumi matatu nemakumi matatu, uye ita mari yekuchengetedza kwako. Zvichiri nani, shandisa mari yaunopesana nemutemo uye utarise kune zuva raunogona kushandisa imba yako pachena uye yakajeka.
A flat flat yields rinoreva kuti mabhanha angave asingakwereti sezvaanofanira. Sei? Havagamuchiri zvakawanda kudzoka nekuda kwezvipingamupinyi zvekukweretesa mari kwemakore mashanu, gumi kana gumi nemashanu. Somugumisiro, vanongokweretesa kune vanotengesa pangozi. Vanonyanya kuchengetedza mari yavo yakawandisa mune zvidhinho zvemari zvemashamba emari uye Treasury manotsi.
Heanoi muenzaniso wemamiriro ezvinhu anovaka flat flat yield.
Muna 2012, hupfumi hwakanga huchikura pahutano hwakanaka hwe 2 muzana. Asi dambudziko rekukwereta kweEuroz rakaita zvakawanda zvisinganzwisisiki. Apo mwedzi wemwedzi mushandi wehupfumi wakasvika muzasi kudarika zvaidiwa, vatengesi vanotya vakatengesa zvikwata uye vakatenga Treasurys. Musi waJune 1, 2012, nhamba yegumi yemari yeChechi yeHurumende yakakunda yegore remakore mazana maviri ekutengeserana kwemazuva. Mwedzi umwe gare gare, musi waJuly 24, yakaderera.
Musi waJuly 1, 2016, makore gumi emakore ekubhadhara mari yeHaimari inobhadhara zvakaderera pasi re 1.385 panguva yekutengeserana kwemasikati. Vashandi vanonetseka nezvevhoti yeGreat Britain yekubva kuEuropean Union . Panguva iyoyo, muchero wekukohwa wakanga wakanyarara kupfuura zvaive muna 2012. Ndokusaka vatengesi vakanga vasina kunyatsovimba nehupenyu hwemangwana. Izvo ndezvekuti Fed yakasimudza mari inodyidzwa mari muna December 2015. Iyo yakaita kuti zvibereko zvive pfupi pfupi pfupi.
Kubvira panguva iyo, chibereko chekuvhara chakadzokera kune chaiyo. Upfumi huri kuwedzera, uye vatengi vari kutengesa Mari yeHurumende uye kutenga zvigadzirwa panzvimbo.
| Treasury Security | Ipai Nekuvhara | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1/12 | 7/25/12 | 7/1/2016 | 4/24/2018 | |
| Mwedzi wemwedzi 1 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.24 | 1.70 |
| Mwedzi 3 mwedzi | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.28 | 1.87 |
| Mwedzi mitanhatu yemwedzi | 0.12 | 0.14 | 0.37 | 2.05 |
| Mushumo wemakore 1 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.45 | 2.25 |
| Nyaya yemakore maviri | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.59 | 2.48 |
| 3 nyaya yemakore | 0.34 | 0.28 | 0.71 | 2.63 |
| Makore mashanu | 0.62 | 0.56 | 1.00 | 2.83 |
| Makore manomwe | 0.93 | 0.91 | 1.27 | 2.95 |
| Makore gumi | 1.47 (makore mazana maviri) | 1.43 (new record low) | 1.46 (mutsva wezuva rezasi we 1.385) | 3.00 (yekutanga yepamusoro pamusoro pe3% kubvira muna 2014) |
| Makore makumi maviri | 2.13 | 2.11 | 1.81 | 3.08 |
| 30-year bond | 2.53 | 2.47 | 2.24 | 3.18 |
Heano muenzaniso wekuti zvibereko zvekurima zvinofanotaura sei kuwedzera kwehupfumi. Muna Gumiguru 2010, gorosi rakakonzerwa nemuchero rakakonzera Cleveland Federal Reserve kufanotaura nezvehupfumi hweUnited States ingongokura 1 muzana gore iroro. Zvechokwadi, hupfumi hwakakura huri mazana maviri kubva pamakore, zvichienderana nehuwandu hwechikwereti chezvibereko zvakasimbisa chido. Muchero wekurima wakanga wakanyongedzerwa nekuda kwekutya kunobva kuGreece mhaka yematambudziko .
Iko kushandiswa kwezvibereko zvekukohwa ndeye apo nguva pfupi yezvibereko inopfuura yakakura kwenguva yakawanda. Iyo mamiriro asina kujairika apo varairidzi vanoda zvimwe zvibereko zvezvikwereti zvenguva pfupi kudarika zvavanoita kwenguva refu-zvinyorwa uye zvisungo. Sei izvi zvichiitika? Vanotarisira kuti hupfumi huite zvakanyanya mune gore rinotevera kana zvakadaro ndokubva varuramisa munguva refu. Ndicho chikonzero kushandiswa kwezvibereko zvekukohwa kazhinji kunofanotaura kutengesa . Zvechokwadi, zvibereko zvekukohwa zvakaputika zvisati zvaitika muna 2000 uye mugore re2008.